The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
The Indian economy remains on track to regain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy after official estimates on Friday put the expansion at a tempered 9.2 per cent this fiscal amid concerns over the impact of a resurgent virus on the fragile recovery. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 9.2 per cent in April 2021 to March 2022 fiscal (FY 2021-22) given by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its first advance estimate compares with 9.5 per cent expansion forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month. The economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in the previous financial year.
On his maiden visit to Beijing, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during which the two leaders agreed to strengthen the all-weather friendship and the USD 60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Government is also will also enter into an agreement with Japan for a $50 billion swap.
The Sensex was mainly dragged by Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries -- shedding as much as 4.60 per cent.
The global recovery is expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies, the IMF said on Tuesday, noting that policymakers should take early action and tighten selected macroprudential policy tools while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. "Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks," the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its Global Financial Stability report released ahead of the Spring meeting of the global lender and the World Bank. However, actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities, it said.
Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won 15 of 20 seats up for grabs in the politically crucial province of Punjab on Sunday, dealing a major blow to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his 13-party alliance led by the ruling PML-N.
The President had been moved out of his residence on Friday, in anticipation of Saturday's protests.
China on Tuesday said the activities of its high-tech research vessel will not affect the security of any country and should not be 'obstructed' by any 'third party', as the ship berthed at Sri Lanka's strategic southern port of Hambantota amid Indian and United States concerns.
Cash-strapped Pakistan on Tuesday moved closer to securing a massive $11 billion economic bailout package from international donor agencies including the IMF, to revive the ailing national economy.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said there were visible signs of revival in the economy but the GDP growth may be in the negative zone or near zero in the current fiscal.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
The Left party had favoured spending six and three per cent of GDP on education and health care sectors.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Monday fired Basil Rajapaksa from his post and invited the Opposition parties to join a unity Cabinet to tackle the raging public anger against the hardships caused by the economic crisis.
Investor sentiment got a boost after the IMF said India will see its growth picking up to 7.4 per cent in 2018-19 to regain the status of the world's fastest growing major economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that a multilateral response is critical to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic in India and globally as it hailed recent announcements by several countries to provide immediate support to India. India is struggling with a second wave of the pandemic with more than 300,000 daily new coronavirus cases being reported in the past few days, and hospitals are reeling under a shortage of medical oxygen and beds.
Reconstruction efforts after the Russia-Ukraine war will be dominated by the heft of the membership of major nations across international organisations. India is hamstrung because it does not play host to any major global institution nor does it hold positions of significant influence in the ones in which it has membership. As a result, the world's sixth largest economy is obliged to follow the rules set by most of them.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram will woo foreign investors to invest in India as he begins his nine-day visit to the US on Tuesday.
Sri Lanka's Acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe on Monday imposed emergency giving him sweeping powers ahead of the key election on July 20 to pick a new President as he urged the political parties to put aside differences and form an all-party government, with the Opposition dubbing his decision as an 'undemocratic draconian act'.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said the government has begun an exercise to assess the impact of the pandemic on the economy and likely contraction in GDP, even as she did not rule out the possibility of another stimulus to boost growth.
When asked if he sees himself back in Chicago, he said, "Yeah, Chicago has been kind to me over my history".
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Friday retained Pakistan on its 'grey list' for failing to check money laundering, leading to terror financing, and asked Islamabad to investigate and prosecute senior leaders and commanders of United Nations-designated terror groups, including Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar.
Modi for completion of IMF quota reforms at earliest
A top Finance Ministry source, however, said no discussion has taken place in the government so far on whether to extend Rajan's tenure or not.
Top 10 debtor countries owe 86% of total IMF loans
The Indian economy is rapidly normalising towards pre-pandemic activity levels, even as uncertainty exists about coronavirus mutations and repeated infection waves, industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla said on Wednesday. Vaccination is picking up pace, which would improve India's resilience against a potential third wave, the chairman of Aditya Birla Group said while virtually addressing shareholders at the AGM of group firm UltraTech Cement Ltd. Moreover, various steps taken by the RBI and the government have helped in containing the economic disruptions of the pandemic, Birla added.
Rajan said he believes that capitalism is breaking down because it is not providing equal opportunities.
Indian central bank may soon edge out its counterpart in the Netherlands from the top-10 list, as latter's holding has largely remained unchanged.
Headline inflation will come down under the 6 per cent mark in July itself but will stay at an elevated level of over 5 per cent for some time, Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian said on Thursday. Such an outcome will get the price rise back into the upper-end of the target band given to RBI, he said, adding that consumer price inflation had breached the mark for three consecutive quarters last fiscal because of supply side issues like challenges in movement of goods. "With reasonable probability, I expect this month the (inflation) print to come less than 6 per cent," Subramanian told a conference organised by industry lobby Ficci. Right after data for May showing inflation at 6.4 per cent had come out, Subramanian said he had predicted it will cool down in internal meetings and also during "deliberations with the regulator".
Inflation targeting has worked well and the government must stay with it, and the framework is going to work well in the period ahead also, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Thursday. He also said low inflation contributes to sustainable growth. Addressing the 'Times Network India Economic Conclave' virtually, Subbarao said the government's proposal to privatise some public sector units is not akin to selling family silver but it is a route for putting India on a sustainable growth path.
The World Bank on Tuesday projected India's economy to grow at 8.3 per cent in 2021 and 7.5 per cent in 2022, even as its recovery is being hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the COVID-19, the largest outbreak in the world since the beginning of the deadly pandemic. The Washington-based global lender, in its latest issue of Global Economic Prospects released here, noted that in India, an enormous second COVID-19 wave is undermining the sharper-than-expected rebound in activity seen during the second half of Fiscal Year 2020/21, especially in services.
Without accounting for refunds, however, the collection contracted 5.4 per cent, indicating muted economic activity as the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent curbs paralysed most sectors.
India's economy is unlikely to see double-digit growth and may grow between 8 per cent and 9 per cent this fiscal year (2021-22, or FY22), against the estimated 11.5 per cent, according to leading economists and rating agencies. The downward revision of growth projections to as low as 10 per cent is mostly on account of stringency in restrictions by states, relatively slow vaccination pace, and the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. However, they say the impact will not be as severe as the first wave, and expect the first quarter to see positive growth.
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Female labour force participation in India is lower than many other EM economies.
The report said the global economy will lose $12 trillion or more by the end of 2021 despite spending of $18 trillion in trying to stimulate growth around the world.
India has called for implementation of the automatic exchange of tax info.
'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
The IMF on Tuesday projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2021, stronger than that of China, the only major economy to have a positive growth rate last year during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Washington-based global financial institution, in its annual World Economic Outlook ahead of the annual Spring meeting with the World Bank, said the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2022. Notably in 2020, India's economy contracted by a record eight per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said as it projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for the country in 2021.
Investor wealth on Wednesday diminished by Rs 1.84 lakh crore amid massive sell-off in the equity market.
The world wants to halt climate change, but do it without affecting economic growth and consumption. This fundamental contradiction is the key theme at Davos 2020.
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