S&P Global Ratings has forecast India's economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal. It, however, has projected GDP growth to be 8.5 per cent in 2021-22 and 6.5 per cent in 2022-23.
The need for money among banks, especially for short-term funds, may turn more intense in the last month of the financial year to feed the demand for capital for tax payments and meet year-end targets. The mobilisation of funds via the certificate of deposits (CDs) has seen a threefold increase to over Rs 60,000 crore in the fortnight that ended February 23 from around Rs 20,000 crore in the fortnight of January 26, 2024, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
Citing expected improvement in macroeconomic situation, Goldman Sachs on Monday upgraded India's rating to 'market weight', indicating bullishness in the short-term.
But says govt finances the weakest aspect of the country's macroeconomic profile.
The liquidity in the banking system moved into surplus almost after three months as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) absorbed over Rs 40,000 crore from the market on Monday, predominantly on the back of increased government spending. However, this situation may be short-lived given the higher demand for funds to pay taxes and year-end targets, treasury executives said. Meanwhile, two variable reverse repo rate (VRRR) auctions held on Tuesday received weak response.
Co-lending deals between non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and banks are likely to rise after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to increase the risk weight on consumer credit, industry leaders and experts say. Smaller NBFCs, they add, may increasingly opt for co-lending as capital markets could become costlier for them. "Smaller NBFCs will be more comfortable with co-lending because they are geography-specific in terms of industry or customers.
India's fiscal deficit and inflation outlook could prevent any upgrades in the country's sovereign rating, even as the economy is headed for recovery
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
India Ratings & Research, part of global major Fitch Group, also cautioned that expected investments worth Rs 1,75,000 crore (Rs 1,750 billion) in various power projects could turn into non- performing assets unless fuel issues are resolved.
Foreign investments are set to gain momentum after 2014 general elections, but a 'magic' work is unlikely for the overall economy in the immediate future, says India Ratings' chief Atul Joshi.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
For the consumer, there would be practically no impact on prices of essential medicines this year.
International rating agency Moody's has indicated that it is unlikely to revise India's rating, but prescribed strong measures to curb fiscal deficit for spurring growth during the Congress-led coalition government's regime.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to step up efforts to boost consumption and rural economy while keeping inflation under check when she presents her sixth straight Budget on February 1. Experts said one way to boost consumption is to put more money in the hands of people, and one of the possible ways of doing it is by reducing the tax burden through tinkering with tax slabs or increasing the standard deduction. Another proposal is related to increasing the funds under the rural employment guarantee scheme MGNREGA and higher payout for farmers.
The overall physical presence of life insurance companies in Tier-II and Tier-III cities increased in FY23 compared to a year ago period on account of the higher impetus given to financial inclusion by the government and insurance regulator, as well as recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the latest data released by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai). It is the first time that there has been growth in the number of offices since the financial year 2019-20.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Moody's on Sunday said any upgrade for the country will depend on consistent improvement in inflation, fiscal deficit and other economic parameters.
India Ratings on Mondy projected a 7.7 per cent growth this fiscal driven by consumption demand.
Ahead of RBI policy meet, India Ratings said an interest rate hike of 0.50 per cent in the remaining part of the fiscal will throw the BSE 500 companies into a quandary.
Most of India's oil supplies are expected to stay safe because of the country's good relations with both Russia and Iran. That would take care of over a third of India's supplies.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
Rising penetration of trade generic medicines is eating into the value growth of the domestic pharmaceutical market, showed a recent analysis. According to a Kotak Institutional Equities analysis, 70-110 basis points (bps) annual dent is expected from trade generics and Jan Aushadhi on Indian Pharma Market (IPM) growth at least until FY27-28 (see chart). Trade generic medicines are those that are not pushed into the market through doctor promotions.
India on Friday made a strong pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade with Moody's and also questioned the parameters based on which the US-based agency accords ratings, sources said on Friday. Ahead of its annual review of the sovereign rating, Moody's Investors Service representatives met Indian government officials during which the officials highlighted the reforms and strong fundamentals of the Indian economy. A higher rating for India would mean the nation is less riskier, translating into lower interest rates on borrowings.
The global ratings agency keeps India's sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with stable outlook
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday upgraded India's ceiling for foreign currency bonds and government's foreign currency issuer ratings to "Baa3" from "Ba1".
The rising goods and services tax (GST) and personal income-tax collections may bolster the Narendra Modi government's ability to announce new schemes or enhance existing ones.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to withdraw the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) is expected to benefit banks during the festival season. They are likely to increase deposit rates by up to 25 basis points (bps) in select maturity buckets. The rise in demand for funds to cover tax payments and meet quarter-end business targets could influence rate decisions by banks, according to bankers and money market executives.
According to Ind-Ra's analysis, credit metrics of hotel companies have showed a downward trend since FY08.
S&P has maintained a stable outlook on the basis of their expectation that over the next two years the growth will remain strong and India will maintain its sound net external position and fiscal deficit will remain elevated but broadly in line with their forecast.
The Union government's finances witnessed significant improvement in August after a stressful first four months of the current fiscal year. India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes, for the first five months of 2023-24 surged 16.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 11.8 trillion. During the April-July period, gross tax revenue increased by a mere 2.8 per cent compared to the Budget Estimate of 12.1 per cent growth for FY24.
It has been lowered to 'IND BBB+' from 'IND A-', besides placing the rating on 'Rating Watch Negative' (RWN).
Gold prices in the country may even dip to Rs 20,500 per ten grams.
While foreign currency rating was retained at Baa2 -- the second-lowest investment grade score -- Moody's also projected a fiscal deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government's target of 3.3 per cent.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-' for the 14th year in a row with a stable outlook, and said that the country's strong external settings will act as a buffer against financial strains despite elevated government funding needs over the next 24 months. The sovereign credit ratings on India reflect the economy's above-average long-term real GDP growth, sound external profile, and evolving monetary settings, S&P Global Ratings stated. "India's democratic institutions promote policy stability and compromise, and also underpin the ratings. "These strengths are balanced against vulnerabilities stemming from the country's low per capita income and weak fiscal settings, including consistently elevated general government deficits and indebtedness," it said in a statement. S&P Global Ratings has forecast economic activity in India to begin to normalise throughout the remainder of fiscal 2022, resulting in real GDP growth of about 9.5 per cent.
The ratings agency, in a report, said 'the Reserve Bank of India's deferral of the Basel 3 implementation deadline by a year has eased the pressure on banks to issue hybrid Tier 1 capital in FY15.'
The rating agency, however, pointed out that India's fiscal position remains precarious, with elevated fiscal deficits and net government indebtedness.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
Hotel companies, which have experienced substantial share price gains in the past six months, are not only expected to post robust revenue growth in the seasonally weak July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the trend continuing in the second half (H2) of FY24, but according to some analysts, they will also benefit from a structural uptrend in progress. To begin with, larger players in the listed hotel sector are expected to report strong growth in Q2 compared to the year-ago quarter. Led by higher demand from the business segment, the sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 15-30 per cent.
