Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday affirmed India's rating at the lowest investment grade of 'Baa3', with a stable outlook, saying high growth will support a gradual increase in income levels, but flagged risks of populist policies due to rise in political tensions. Moody's said although India's potential growth has come down in the past 7-10 years, the growth would outpace all other G20 economies through at least the next two years, driven by domestic demand. Moody's said the restoration of robust growth prospects post-pandemic, the effective commitment to inflation targeting and the rehabilitation of the financial system aided by reform supports its view of strengthening monetary and macro policy effectiveness.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'We have to retain some fiscal headroom without compromising on the promised fiscal consolidation roadmap.'
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
Amid low growth elsewhere, gross value added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities recovered during the second quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) to 3.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to strong monsoon. Experts feel that the rains have laid the foundation of an even better GVA performance in subsequent quarters. GVA growth in the first quarter of FY25 was 2.0 per cent.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
Schemes like the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana strain fiscal resources amid rising unemployment and prices of food items.
Public sector banks (PSBs) posted 16.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit at Rs 39,974 crore during the June 2024 quarter. While net interest income (NII) showed subdued growth of 7.1 per cent, provisions and contingencies declined by 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y. This aided the bottom line to show steady growth.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
Mining conglomerate Vedanta Limited has received approvals from the majority of its creditors for a proposed demerger of businesses, marking an important step in the company's plan to split into six independent listed companies. "I am happy to let all of you know that we have received the 52 per cent plus the additional percentage, which is required for us to reach 75 per cent. "We have crossed that threshold as well. Most of the lenders have approved it," a senior Vedanta executive said in a recent bondholder conference call.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) slim majority in Lok Sabha may delay more far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms that could impede progress on fiscal consolidation, Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday. NDA securing a majority in the general elections will give a historic third term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India. "We expect policy continuity, especially with regards to budgetary emphasis on infrastructure spending and boosting domestic manufacturing, to support robust economic growth.
'The expeditious enactment of labour codes and strategic measures to bridge the skills jobs gap are critical.'
In mid-March this year, the finance ministry asked state-run banks to review their gold loan portfolio for the two-year period between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2024. This business had grown at a fast clip. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data has it that it grew 15 per cent to Rs 1 trillion in FY24. Now, in recent times, any kind of exuberance in financial services has seen the authorities swoop down - be it pushing the lines on governance or unsecured credit.
Corporate India is starting to step up its capital expenditure plans amid government incentives and signs of rising demand, company executives and analysts have indicated. This coincides with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently citing a double-digit growth in private capital expenditure. Healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, along with increasing capacity utilisation and improving business sentiment, are contributing to a favourable environment for sustained growth in private sector investments, the RBI said in its policy last week.
The negative outlook reflects dominant, mutually-reinforcing, downside risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system that could lead to a more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength than Moody's currently projects, the agency said.
The need for money among banks, especially for short-term funds, may turn more intense in the last month of the financial year to feed the demand for capital for tax payments and meet year-end targets. The mobilisation of funds via the certificate of deposits (CDs) has seen a threefold increase to over Rs 60,000 crore in the fortnight that ended February 23 from around Rs 20,000 crore in the fortnight of January 26, 2024, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said it has revised the outlook on India's sovereign rating to 'stable' from 'negative' as downside risks to medium-term growth have diminished on rapid economic recovery. Fitch Ratings kept the rating unchanged at 'BBB-'.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
The liquidity in the banking system moved into surplus almost after three months as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) absorbed over Rs 40,000 crore from the market on Monday, predominantly on the back of increased government spending. However, this situation may be short-lived given the higher demand for funds to pay taxes and year-end targets, treasury executives said. Meanwhile, two variable reverse repo rate (VRRR) auctions held on Tuesday received weak response.
Co-lending deals between non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and banks are likely to rise after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to increase the risk weight on consumer credit, industry leaders and experts say. Smaller NBFCs, they add, may increasingly opt for co-lending as capital markets could become costlier for them. "Smaller NBFCs will be more comfortable with co-lending because they are geography-specific in terms of industry or customers.
Company says confident of raising funds; to raise Rs 688 crore by February-end.
Although, Moody's expects that global and domestic factors, including potential shocks in agriculture, could keep India's growth below trend for the next few quarters.
In three separate but similarly-worded orders, Sebi said the default by IL&FS occurred due to "lethargic indifference and needless procrastination and laxity" of the rating agencies.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
For the consumer, there would be practically no impact on prices of essential medicines this year.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Vaccinating all citizens above the age of 18 years against COVID-19 will cost Rs 67,193 crore, of which states together will incur Rs 46,323 crore, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. As the second wave of COVID-19 sweeps the country with alarming speed and severity, the government has announced a liberalised and accelerated Phase 3 strategy of COVID-19 vaccination. Under this scheme, all persons above 18 years of age will be eligible to get COVID-19 vaccine doses from May 1.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to step up efforts to boost consumption and rural economy while keeping inflation under check when she presents her sixth straight Budget on February 1. Experts said one way to boost consumption is to put more money in the hands of people, and one of the possible ways of doing it is by reducing the tax burden through tinkering with tax slabs or increasing the standard deduction. Another proposal is related to increasing the funds under the rural employment guarantee scheme MGNREGA and higher payout for farmers.
The overall physical presence of life insurance companies in Tier-II and Tier-III cities increased in FY23 compared to a year ago period on account of the higher impetus given to financial inclusion by the government and insurance regulator, as well as recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the latest data released by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai). It is the first time that there has been growth in the number of offices since the financial year 2019-20.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Most of India's oil supplies are expected to stay safe because of the country's good relations with both Russia and Iran. That would take care of over a third of India's supplies.
'China's investment destination image the world over has taken a beating, therefore investors feel India is a safe haven for investments.' 'FDI is at an all-time high in India.' 'Now after such poor ratings, this FDI amount will fall.' 'Therefore, I am saying these things are happening at China's behest.'
Rising penetration of trade generic medicines is eating into the value growth of the domestic pharmaceutical market, showed a recent analysis. According to a Kotak Institutional Equities analysis, 70-110 basis points (bps) annual dent is expected from trade generics and Jan Aushadhi on Indian Pharma Market (IPM) growth at least until FY27-28 (see chart). Trade generic medicines are those that are not pushed into the market through doctor promotions.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
Report maintains its underweight call on India.
S&P Global Ratings has forecast India's economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal. It, however, has projected GDP growth to be 8.5 per cent in 2021-22 and 6.5 per cent in 2022-23.
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