Only a limited set of investors should invest directly in corporate bonds.
India's top listed real estate developers reported steady growth in Q4FY25, supported by healthy pre-sales, even as earnings reflected signs of moderation amid elevated housing prices and subdued launches.
Around 74 per cent rural households expect their incomes to increase in the next one year, according to a bimonthly survey conducted by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) in May 2025. The percentage recorded was 72 in March.
A fresh US executive order (EO) which seeks to bring down prices of prescription drugs in the country by up to 90 per cent -- on par with other developed nations -- will affect innovator companies, while sparing the Indian generic drug makers in the short term. US President Donald Trump signed the EO on Monday, directing the US Trade Representative and the Secretary of Commerce to act against foreign countries that "purposefully and unfairly undercut market prices", driving price hikes in the US.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday affirmed India's rating at the lowest investment grade of 'Baa3', with a stable outlook, saying high growth will support a gradual increase in income levels, but flagged risks of populist policies due to rise in political tensions. Moody's said although India's potential growth has come down in the past 7-10 years, the growth would outpace all other G20 economies through at least the next two years, driven by domestic demand. Moody's said the restoration of robust growth prospects post-pandemic, the effective commitment to inflation targeting and the rehabilitation of the financial system aided by reform supports its view of strengthening monetary and macro policy effectiveness.
Adani Ports and JSW Infrastructure, India's leading private port operators, are expanding their logistics services to capture extra cargo while they run integrated transport services. "With incrementally less availability of lucrative port assets that can drive cargo volumes, port operators have naturally shifted their focus on deriving value in the upstream integration, i.e., the logistics space.
Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019.
Wholesale price inflation eased to 2.05 per cent in March, as against 2.38 per cent in February, government data showed on Tuesday. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation, however, rose year-on-year.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
The RBI's monetary policy committee is expected cut benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in its policy review meeting next month to push growth, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. "We expect the headline inflation in FY25 to cool off to 4.7 per cent. Monetary easing may be limited to 75 bps in FY26," Ind-Ra Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Devendra Kumar Pant said.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Real estate developers are hoping that the slew of tax concessions announced in Union Budget 2025, set to take effect this financial year, will spur demand for affordable and mid-segment housing, even as the broader housing market shows signs of fatigue.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
Towards the end of February, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) restored the risk weighting on banks loans to non-banking financial companies (NBFCs; including to microfinance institutions, or MFIs) to 100 - back to its November 2023 position - from 125. It is only a partial relief though. "Higher risk weighting on unsecured lending continues to be in place while the same on bank funding to NBFCs has been done away with. "This is a positive step by RBI," says Rajiv Sabharwal, managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO), Tata Capital.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'We have to retain some fiscal headroom without compromising on the promised fiscal consolidation roadmap.'
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
Amid low growth elsewhere, gross value added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities recovered during the second quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) to 3.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to strong monsoon. Experts feel that the rains have laid the foundation of an even better GVA performance in subsequent quarters. GVA growth in the first quarter of FY25 was 2.0 per cent.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
Schemes like the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana strain fiscal resources amid rising unemployment and prices of food items.
The negative outlook reflects dominant, mutually-reinforcing, downside risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system that could lead to a more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength than Moody's currently projects, the agency said.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
Public sector banks (PSBs) posted 16.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit at Rs 39,974 crore during the June 2024 quarter. While net interest income (NII) showed subdued growth of 7.1 per cent, provisions and contingencies declined by 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y. This aided the bottom line to show steady growth.
Company says confident of raising funds; to raise Rs 688 crore by February-end.
Although, Moody's expects that global and domestic factors, including potential shocks in agriculture, could keep India's growth below trend for the next few quarters.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said it has revised the outlook on India's sovereign rating to 'stable' from 'negative' as downside risks to medium-term growth have diminished on rapid economic recovery. Fitch Ratings kept the rating unchanged at 'BBB-'.
Mining conglomerate Vedanta Limited has received approvals from the majority of its creditors for a proposed demerger of businesses, marking an important step in the company's plan to split into six independent listed companies. "I am happy to let all of you know that we have received the 52 per cent plus the additional percentage, which is required for us to reach 75 per cent. "We have crossed that threshold as well. Most of the lenders have approved it," a senior Vedanta executive said in a recent bondholder conference call.
In three separate but similarly-worded orders, Sebi said the default by IL&FS occurred due to "lethargic indifference and needless procrastination and laxity" of the rating agencies.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) slim majority in Lok Sabha may delay more far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms that could impede progress on fiscal consolidation, Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday. NDA securing a majority in the general elections will give a historic third term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India. "We expect policy continuity, especially with regards to budgetary emphasis on infrastructure spending and boosting domestic manufacturing, to support robust economic growth.
Report maintains its underweight call on India.
Vaccinating all citizens above the age of 18 years against COVID-19 will cost Rs 67,193 crore, of which states together will incur Rs 46,323 crore, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. As the second wave of COVID-19 sweeps the country with alarming speed and severity, the government has announced a liberalised and accelerated Phase 3 strategy of COVID-19 vaccination. Under this scheme, all persons above 18 years of age will be eligible to get COVID-19 vaccine doses from May 1.
'The expeditious enactment of labour codes and strategic measures to bridge the skills jobs gap are critical.'
Corporate India is starting to step up its capital expenditure plans amid government incentives and signs of rising demand, company executives and analysts have indicated. This coincides with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently citing a double-digit growth in private capital expenditure. Healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, along with increasing capacity utilisation and improving business sentiment, are contributing to a favourable environment for sustained growth in private sector investments, the RBI said in its policy last week.
'China's investment destination image the world over has taken a beating, therefore investors feel India is a safe haven for investments.' 'FDI is at an all-time high in India.' 'Now after such poor ratings, this FDI amount will fall.' 'Therefore, I am saying these things are happening at China's behest.'
In mid-March this year, the finance ministry asked state-run banks to review their gold loan portfolio for the two-year period between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2024. This business had grown at a fast clip. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data has it that it grew 15 per cent to Rs 1 trillion in FY24. Now, in recent times, any kind of exuberance in financial services has seen the authorities swoop down - be it pushing the lines on governance or unsecured credit.
