Indian fintechs and associated entities are hoping that the Union Budget 2024 will provide a boost and empower firms to extend their reach beyond Tier-II regions, with an emphasis on supporting enterprises led by women. The fintech industry, which has witnessed regulatory reforms over the last year, expects the Budget, scheduled to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, will further encourage financial inclusion, empower micro-small-medium enterprises (MSMEs) with lending solutions, and push for upskilling initiatives for the country's young workforce.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Analysts interpret this as an indication that a corporate profit upcycle is in progress, with projections suggesting that this share could exceed 8 per cent within the next five years, driven by bullish earnings growth expectations. "We believe we are only halfway through a profit cycle, with the profit share in GDP rising from a low of 2 per cent in 2020 to about 5 per cent currently, and likely heading to 8 per cent in the coming four to five years. "This implies about 20 per cent compounding of earnings growth. "Underscoring this forecast is the start of a new private capex cycle, under-geared balance sheets, a healthy banking system, lower corporate tax rates, improving terms of trade, and structural consumption demand outlook albeit somewhat offset by likely consolidation in government deficit," said Ridham Desai, managing director, head of research, Morgan Stanley India in a note.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
The Union government is projected to share about 32 per cent of central taxes with states during the financial year 2024-25 against the 15th Finance Commission's recommendation of 41 per cent. The Revised Estimates (RE) for FY24, too, show a similar share of states in the central taxes at 32 per cent. In absolute terms, however, there has been an increase in the amount devolved to states compared to the Budget Estimates (BE) for FY24 at Rs 11 trillion.
The Union government on Friday said it would not notify the fact checking unit (FCU) contemplated under the amended information technology (IT) rules against fake news till the Bombay high court delivers its judgment on the petitions challenging the amendments.
Corporate India reported high double-digit growth in net profit for the fourth consecutive quarter in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24), driven by margin gains from lower prices of raw material and energy.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
India and the US have settled the last trade dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over poultry products, according to a joint statement released on Friday. With this, the two countries have mutually resolved all the seven pending trade disputes at the WTO. "The leaders lauded the settlement of the seventh and last outstanding WTO dispute between India and the United States.
Domestic investors are tightening their grip on the ownership of listed companies. The gap between the shareholding of domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) narrowed to 13.11 percentage points at the end of the September 2023 quarter. At the peak, the gap was nearly 50 percentage points in March 2015, according to an analysis by Prime Database, a leading provider of data on the capital market.
Internet shutdowns by law enforcement agencies like the one in Manipur and Punjab cost $1.9 billion to the Indian economy in the first half of 2023, a report said on Thursday. The shutdowns also led to a loss of nearly $118 million in foreign investment and triggered over 21,000 job losses, the global non-profit Internet Society said in its report 'Netloss'. The non-profit arrived at the financial impact of the shutdown going beyond the loss of output and included factors like change in the unemployment rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) lost, risks of future shutdowns, population in the working age etc.
The Competition Commission of India has introduced draft regulations for combinations or mergers, under the new competition Act, to bring global deals in the digital space, including those involving Big Tech companies, under its scanner. The draft regulations would provide guidance on the valuation of merger transactions and the criteria for assessing sustainable operations in India for companies. The proposed rules mention that if the number of users and subscribers, or the turnover or gross merchandise value in India is over 10 per cent of the global figure, the company would be considered to have substantial business operation in India and would need CCI approval for the merger.
India's largest asset manager SBI Funds Management on Tuesday said they are negative on equities from a shorter-term perspective as valuations have risen above the comfort zone. "We are not positive on equities. We think valuations are expensive. "The market has gone up a lot more than the earnings have grown," said R Srinivasan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) - Equity at SBI Mutual Fund, at the launch of asset management companies' (AMC) yearly report on the market outlook.
Retirement fund body EPFO has extended the deadline for filing applications to opt for a higher pension till July 11. This is the second extension of the deadline for applying for a higher pension. Earlier, it was extended from May 3, 2023, to June 26, 2023.
Post the change in debt fund taxation in March, a lesser-known hybrid fund has emerged as one of the alternatives for fixed-income investors. Equity savings schemes, the smallest hybrid fund category in terms of assets, have raked in around Rs 6,000 crore this financial year (FY24) so far compared to Rs 1,100-crore outflow in FY23. The inflows along with a strong performance led to a 50 per cent surge in assets under management (AUM) to Rs 24,100 crore during April-November, shows data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
India and the US have signed an agreement to promote innovation through increasing cooperation among startups, address regulatory hurdles and share best practices on fundraising by entrepreneurs, an official statement said on Wednesday. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) on enhancing innovation ecosystems through an innovation handshake under the framework of India-US Commercial Dialogue was signed on November 14 in San Francisco. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is in San Francisco.
'What will matter in 2024 from the market standpoint is the direction of interest rates globally, as well as in India.' 'The results of the general elections will also be keenly watched.'
The ministry is of the opinion that there is a need for a rigorous regime for large unlisted companies, in contrast with the current "light-touch" regulation. "There is a defined regime for listed companies, by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). "There is a view in the ministry that it needs to look at a framework for large unlisted companies," the senior official said.
Tata Consultancy Services has expanded its partnership with Google Cloud for generative AI offerings, the company said on Monday. Under the partnership, TCS will leverage Google Cloud's generative AI services to design and deploy custom-tailored business solutions for the clients. "Our launch partnership with Google Cloud on generative AI enables us to rapidly create value for our customers.
The sharp surge in investment accounts (folios) in midcap and smallcap mutual funds (MF) in recent months is likely driven by the do-it-yourself (DIY) investors. In the first five months of the present financial year (FY 2024), net folio additions in direct MF plans (4.5 million) has outpaced that in regular plans (3.9 million), contrary to the trend seen in the previous three six-month periods. The net folio additions in direct plans in the five-month period (April-August 2023) is 40 per cent higher than the total additions made in the previous six month period.
Domestic equity markets, which are at record high levels, will be driven by quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund movement, analysts said. The movement of rupee and global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked by investors. "The direction of global stock markets, fluctuations in the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, and movement in crude oil prices will all play a crucial role in influencing the overall market trend.
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
Persons and entities who have faced search or survey proceedings by the income tax department "in any previous year" will no longer be allowed to file updated tax returns. Earlier, it was proposed that an updated tax return cannot be filed, in case of search or survey proceedings in the relevant financial year and the preceding one.
Retirement fund body EPFO has extended the date for filing applications to opt for a higher pension till June 26, 2023. In order to provide a larger window of opportunity and in order to enable all eligible persons to file their applications, the timeline for filing applications would now be till 26th June, 2023, according to a statement. "The EPFO (Employees' Provident Fund Organisation) has made arrangements for obtaining applications for validation of option/joint option from pensioners/members as per the Supreme Court order on November 4, 2022," labour ministry said in a statement.
One out of every six sedition cases registered in India between 2014 and 2021 came from Assam.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
It is a good option for parents of girl children who want a debt product and do not mind its low liquidity.
'You cannot have only one product or one market or one customer segment.'
The pharmaceuticals sector is expected to post a revenue growth of around 13.5 per cent and a net profit growth of 30.3 per cent for the third quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), riding on the approval for niche drugs in the US market, fall in raw material prices and correction in shipping rates. In the healthcare segment, hospitals are expected to post revenue growth of 13 per cent during the coverage, while net profit growth would be around 37 per cent, ICICI Securities said in a note. However, the performance may not be comparable on a sequential basis due to the offset of the festive season in Q3FY24, the analysts noted.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
Wealthy Indians are adding new residential addresses to their assets, many of them in Dubai. The quality of life in the desert city is comparable to any coveted city in the world. Its property market is regulated to protect investors' interests.
The contribution from asset management companies (AMCs) has surpassed the Rs 3,000 crore target for the creation of a Rs 33,000 crore backstop facility for debt mutual funds (MFs). The initial corpus for the Corporate Debt Market Development Fund (CDMDF) is nearly Rs 3,100 crore, according to multiple government officials and AMC executives. "The fund is operational now. "The required corpus has been raised by AMCs and the remaining part (Rs 30,000 crore) is in the form of a guarantee from the government which will be activated only in case of a credit event," explained D P Singh, joint CEO and deputy MD, SBI MF.
After Bandhan MF's US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Fund (FoF), Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF has come out with US Treasury 1-3 Year Bond ETFs FoF and 3-10 Year Bond ETFs FoF. US bonds, which generally offer low yields, have turned attractive post the 525-basis point hike in US interest rates. According to Bloomberg data, the 1-year and 2-year US treasury yields now stand at 5.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Although the yields remain lower than what Indian government bonds offer, the differential has come down steeply.
The income tax department has notified rules for valuation of equity and compulsorily convertible preferable shares issued by startups to resident and non-resident investors. As per the changes in Rule 11UA of I-T rules, which comes into effect from September 25, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) provides that the valuation of compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) can also be based on the fair market value of unquoted equity shares. The amended rules also retain the five new valuation methods proposed in the draft rules for consideration received from the non-residents viz., (i) Comparable Company Multiple Method, (ii) Probability Weighted Expected Return Method, (iii) Option Pricing Method, (iv) Milestone Analysis Method, and (v) Replacement Cost Method.
To check digital frauds, the government has disconnected 70 lakh mobile numbers so far involved in cybercrime or financial frauds, Financial Services Secretary Vivek Joshi said on Tuesday. Emerging from a meeting to discuss issues related to financial cyber security and increasing digital payment fraud, Joshi, who chaired the meeting, said banks have been asked to strengthen the system and processes in this regard. More such meetings would take place, he said, adding the next meeting is scheduled in January.
Floating-rate mutual funds are back in demand after a year-long period of consistent outflows. In the past three months, investors have poured over Rs 6,100 crore into these debt schemes, indicating a reversal in fortunes for the category that recorded outflows for 11 consecutive months (May 2022 to March 2023), totalling Rs 32,250 crore. Floating-rate funds invest at least 65 per cent in floating-rate instruments, which have their interest rates linked to the Reserve Bank of India repo rate.
'From a risk-return perspective, large-cap funds may generate lower-than-historical average returns in 2024, whereas mid-, and small-cap funds hardly have any upside left.'
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
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