The Centre's fiscal deficit at the end of the eighth month of financial year 2024-25 touched 52.5 per cent of the full-year target, government data showed on Tuesday. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between the government's expenditure and revenue -- was about Rs 8.47 lakh crore during the April-November period, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Tuesday that India's water will no longer flow outside the country but will be utilized in the nation's interest, a statement seemingly directed at Pakistan following his government's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack. Addressing the ABP Network's 'India@2047' Summit, Modi emphasized his government's focus on interlinking rivers, noting that water used to be a source of conflict among states, before alluding to India's stance against Pakistan while discussing water. He highlighted the finalization of the India-UK free trade agreement as a historic milestone and underscored the importance of prioritizing national interest for achieving objectives and realizing the country's potential. Modi highlighted the country's growth and development under his government's rule, emphasizing its focus on welfare schemes and digitalization. He reiterated his government's commitment to 'Nation First' and pointed to the recent reforms undertaken, including the new Waqf law and the ban on triple talaq, which he said were aimed at benefiting the marginalized sections of society.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
'The government has to explain (to the army, air force and navy chiefs) whether they want a punitive strike, a deep punitive strike, or whether they want limited war or an all-out war, will it be a circumscribed war or will it be a shallow attack along the border.'
India's services sector activity eased slightly in March, weighed down by a marginal slowdown in sales amid softer demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from February's reading of 59.0 to 58.5 in March, but remained above its long-run average of 54.2.
The Lok Sabha on Tuesday passed the Finance Bill 2025, along with 35 government amendments, including one that abolishes a 6 per cent digital tax on online advertisements.
Generative AI (GenAI) has the potential to add a cumulative $1.2-1.5 trillion to India's GDP over the next seven years, according to a report by EY. The report titled 'AIdea of India: Generative AI's potential to accelerate India's digital transformation' says that in 2029-30 alone, GenAI can contribute an additional $359-438 billion to India's GDP. The report said that around 69 per cent of the overall impact of GenAI on India's GDP is expected to be derived from sectors such as business services (including IT, legal, consulting, rental of machinery and equipment, and others), financial services, education, retail, and healthcare.
'The finance minister has done as much as she can when you look into the fiscal constraints she had.'
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
India's largest IT services firm Tata Consultancy Services on Thursday reported a 1.68 per cent dip in its consolidated net profit to Rs 12,224 crore for the March 2025 quarter. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) - whose earnings marked the official start of IT results season - reported a total revenue of Rs 64,479 crore in Q4 FY25, up 5.3 per cent over the year-ago period.
One fact is irrefutable: Nepal's recent political history tells us that the route to a return of monarchy cannot go through India despite friends in high places, asserts Aditi Phadnis.
'Militarily, it risks escalating tensions with Pakistan, potentially triggering conflict due to Pakistan's heavy reliance on the Indus.'
Amid increasing volatility and recession fears looming over global markets that has led to the decline in wealth of a number of billionaires, Gautam Adani was the only one to buck the trend. The billionaire added $43.3 billion in net worth between Diwali 2021 (November 4) and this year's Diwali (October 24) according to Bloomberg data. He added more wealth than the gross domestic product (GDP)of more than a dozen Indian states.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
States are mandated to develop and implement 'heat HAPs' for prevention of heat-induced diseases. But most do not go beyond standard advisory on heat prevention.
'War is not an answer. War is not a solution.' 'Deterrence is a solution. We should have the stick with us with which we can beat Pakistan.'
The government's indirect tax collection is expected to increase by 8.3 pc in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), according to a report by ICICI Bank. The report also noted that this growth is higher than the 7.1 per cent increase seen in FY25 and is mainly driven by rise in GST revenue from strong urban consumption. It said "The increase is driven by higher goods and services tax collections which in-turn is explained by boost to urban consumption".
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
Samajwadi Party MLA Abu Asim Azmi, suspended from the Maharashtra assembly over his remarks praising Mughal emperor Aurangzeb, will be '100 per cent' put in jail, Chief Minister Minister Devendra Fadnavis said in the legislative council.
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in the 2022-23 fiscal, down from 8.7 per cent a year ago, mainly due poor performance of mining and manufacturing sectors. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
India needs another shot of difficult reform, of the kind only possible at gunpoint. Mr Trump holds that gun to our heads now. A drastic reduction in tariff protection, other elements of sarkari wet-nursing will force entrepreneurial India to become competitive again, argues Shekhar Gupta.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
The government resolution does not spell out what action would be taken, if any, against those writing and publishing 'negative' news. Nor does it define 'negative news and "misinformation', explains Jyoti Punwani.
Samajwadi Party MLA Abu Asim Azmi was on Wednesday suspended from the Maharashtra legislative assembly till the ongoing budget session ends on March 26, over his remarks eulogizing Mughal emperor Aurangzeb.
