Maoist Surrenders Signal Insurgency's Endgame

As the March 31 deadline arrives, a wave of Maoist surrenders suggests insurgency's end, but political and social concerns remain.

Budra Kabasi, alias Sukhdev, has no regrets about either joining the Maoists in 2002 or leaving them in 2016.

"Circumstances were such that I thought joining the organisation was the best possible option at that time," said Kabasi, a resident of the remote Malkangiri district in Odisha.

The school he attended had no teacher.

Frustrated, Kabasi, then 15, and his friends assaulted the local block development officer and the school inspector.

When he learnt police cases had been filed against them, Maoist cadres operating in the area persuaded him to join the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) People's War.

The outfit later merged with the Maoist Communist Centre of India to form the CPI (Maoist) in 2004.

"During my time with the Malkangiri division of the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh-Chhattisgarh committee, I tried to do whatever I could for local people -- from building hostels for tribal children to creating roads and digging ponds -- under the banner of the CPI (Maoist)," Kabasi said.

He rose steadily through the organisation's ranks. But his growing influence, he said, did not sit well with some senior leaders, forcing him to surrender in 2016.

Back in the mainstream, Kabasi tried to rebuild his life. He contested elections and resumed his studies.

Though he received about Rs 5 lakh under the government's rehabilitation package, he is still waiting for a promised government job and the Rs 4 lakh assured to his wife.

Malkangiri is among six districts that have now become Maoist-free, according to Odisha police. Insurgency is currently limited to three districts, they said.

Eleven Maoists surrendered in Kalahandi on Sunday. On March 11, in neighbouring Chhattisgarh's Bastar region, 108 Maoists laid down their arms in one of the largest mass surrenders in recent years.

The state's Director General of Police Arun Dev Gautam did not disclose how many Maoists remain active in the state but said: "We are committed to eliminating Left-Wing Extremism (LWE). We are putting in all our efforts."

With days left before the Union government's March 31 deadline to eliminate LWE in India, Maoist cadres are surrendering in large numbers.

Authorities say the trend could signal the end of the country's longest-running internal insurgency.

On March 7, 130 members of the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army surrendered in Hyderabad in the presence of Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy.

Officials said the Maoists' Telangana state committee had "completely vanished".

In January, 16 Maoists were killed in a gunfight with security forces in Jharkhand's Saranda forests, where officials said only around 60-65 cadres remained.

Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have already been declared Maoist-free after mass surrenders in Gadchiroli in October last year.

West Bengal, once a Maoist stronghold, has also seen a steady decline in Left-Wing Extremism.

'Our forces will defeat those who dream of building a red corridor from Tirupati to Pashupati,' Union Home Minister Amit Shah said recently.

"Our security forces have lived up to expectations, and the country is now on the verge of eliminating the red rebels.

Technology weakens insurgent strategy

Gautam told Business Standard the progress was possible because of "clear direction, firm political will, and coordination among paramilitary forces, central forces, state forces, and all agencies involved in the operation".

Experts tracking Maoist activity, however, say the recent wave of surrenders cannot be explained by the government deadline alone.

According to Ajay Gudavarthy, a political scientist at Jawaharlal Nehru University, "New technologies like drone surveillance and satellite imaging have made the armed strategy of the Maoists extremely difficult."

Human rights activist and lawyer Biswapriya Kanungo said the logic of armed rebellion has become harder to sustain.

"The Maoists have brought core tribal issues to the forefront. But the state has outmatched them with advanced technological warfare. Declaring an open war against the State is not sustainable in today's circumstances," said Kanungo, whose name was proposed by Maoists in March 2012 as a negotiator with the Odisha government during the abduction of two Italian tourists.

Bhima Sodhi, who joined the CPI (Maoist) in 2004 and surrendered in 2014 along with his wife, agrees. "Earlier, the Maoists could counterattack with the weapons they had, but not anymore.

Fear of being killed in police encounters is the key reason we are seeing mass surrenders and fewer people taking interest in joining the insurgency," said Sodhi, who now works as a homeguard.

Agrarian revolt to armed insurgency

Historians trace the ideological roots of Maoism in India to peasant uprisings such as the Telangana armed struggle (1946-1951) and the Tebhaga movement in West Bengal, where sharecroppers demanded two-thirds of the harvest.

The current phase of Maoist insurgency began with the Naxalbari uprising of 1967 in northern West Bengal -- a localised peasant revolt that evolved into an ideological movement advocating armed revolution against the state.

During the 1980s and 1990s, the movement spread from Telangana to Andhra Pradesh and later to parts of Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra.

It also expanded into the forested Dandakaranya region in central India, forming what came to be known as the 'Red Corridor'.

"In its early years, Maoists gained support among the rural poor and tribal communities by mobilising around issues like land redistribution, bonded labour, caste oppression and exploitation by landlords," said Gudavarthy.

However, this support declined as economic reforms reshaped rural society and welfare programmes expanded.

"After economic reforms in the 1990s, land values rose, migration to towns increased and the informal economy expanded. These changes weakened the agrarian class base that had once sustained revolutionary mobilisation," Gudavarthy said.

He added that factional infighting and the killing of suspected informers further eroded support.

Another factor, he argued, was the Maoists' "strategic mistake of becoming heavily concentrated in parts of Chhattisgarh", making it easier for security forces to corner them.

The rise of Dalit and Other Backward Class political movements also created new democratic avenues for marginalised communities.

"The vote is still seen as a powerful right that brings some benefits," Gudavarthy said.

Kanungo said a lack of political consciousness among newer cadres may also have contributed to the Maoists' growing detachment from people's issues.

Experts also attributed the success of anti-LWE operations to government's targeted development initiatives.

Since FY21, about 8,301 km of roads have been built under the Road Requirement Plan and the Road Connectivity Project for affected areas, while 6,775 telecom towers have been commissioned, according to a ministry of home affairs press release issued in December 2025.

The government has also set up educational institutions, 4,262 post offices and 719 bank branches in these areas.

Government data shows incidents of Left-Wing Extremism declined 81 per cent to 374 in 2024 from 1,936 in 2010.

Deaths of civilians and security personnel fell to 150 from 1,005 during the same period.

The insurgency's geographical footprint has also shrunk sharply, with affected districts reducing from 126 in 2018 to 38 in 2024.

The Union budget for 2026-2027 has increased allocations for security and infrastructure in Maoist-affected areas by more than 20 per cent year-on-year to Rs 3,610.80 crore.

The Chhattisgarh government has also proposed creating 1,500 additional Bastar Fighter posts to maintain a strong security presence in the region.

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Debate over rights and crackdown

During the previous United Progressive Alliance government, policymakers often described Maoism as both a political and developmental challenge.

Committees studying the issue pointed to land alienation, governance failures and tribal displacement as major drivers of the conflict.

Security measures intensified during that period. One of the most controversial initiatives was Salwa Judum, a militia movement in Chhattisgarh aimed at countering Maoists.

Activists criticised the campaign for displacing villagers and deepening the conflict.

Experts say the recent rise in surrenders is also linked to rehabilitation policies that offer immediate financial assistance of up to Rs 5 lakh depending on rank, along with other state-specific incentives.

Some analysts argue that the narrative of Maoist decline may also reflect a political framing that overlooks deeper structural concerns.

Kanungo said the anti-Maoist campaign is a continuous process but cautioned that while militants may be surrendering, the ideology behind the movement has not entirely disappeared.

"Maoists have surrendered. Maoism has not."

N Sai Balaji of CPI (M-L) Liberation said surrenders have always been part of insurgencies and should not be seen as unusual.

"Instead of addressing its root causes, adopting this method of killing if not surrendered is not right in a democratic society where the dignity of human life is respected," he said.

What next?

For security officials, the immediate objective remains the elimination of armed insurgency.

DGP Gautam said India's democratic system allows space for diverse political ideologies as long as they do not involve violence.

Analysts warn that the deeper grievances that once sustained Maoism may continue to shape politics in the affected regions.

Gudavarthy argues that Maoism should be seen not as the root problem but as a symptom of broader structural challenges.

If issues such as land inequality, tribal displacement and governance failures remain unresolved, he said, resistance could re-emerge in different forms, through social movements, protests or new political mobilisation.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff