How the UN's flagship climate summit lost its direction and what's at stake.
On the eve of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), the United Nations-led global climate conference in Brazil, a veteran participant likened it to a "mela" -- a grand but "pointless" jamboree of over 40,000 people from across the world: Heads of State, diplomats, corporate chiefs, investment bankers, NGOs, activists, students, and protesters, all gathering under one roof for two weeks to discuss the warming of the planet -- a crisis that disproportionately hurts developing nations such as India.
To put it mildly, COP has lost its mojo and "needs to go back to its roots", said R R Rashmi, distinguished fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute and a long-time climate negotiator.
The urgency to find technological and financial solutions to contain global temperature rise within 1.5 Degree C above pre-industrial levels could not be greater, as over 150 nations prepare to assemble in Belem (often called Belem of Para, the capital and largest city of the state of Para in northern Brazil), bordering the Amazon, from November 10.
"Participation declined at COP29 in Baku, and attendance may fall further at COP30 if the agenda lacks a clear road map with milestones, timelines, and a balance between public and private finance to mobilise the $1.3 trillion needed for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage in developing countries," said Abhijeet Sinha, director -- ease of doing business, and principal advisor, Services Export Promotion Council, ministry of commerce.
A planet near the edge
Belem COP may be defined by three critical events. The world has reached its first climate tipping point, according to the Global Tipping Points Report 2025.
Authored by 160 scientists from 87 institutions across 23 countries, the report warns that warm-water coral reefs -- on which nearly a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend -- are now passing their tipping point.
Global warming is perilously close to triggering other catastrophic shifts -- from melting ice sheets and the collapse of key ocean currents to Amazon rainforest dieback.
"This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide," said Tim Lenton, professor at the University of Exeter.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels reached a record high in 2024, fuelling extreme weather after global heating weakened natural land and ocean "sinks" that absorb CO2 , according to the UN's World Meteorological Organization.
The increase in global CO2 concentration was the highest single-year jump since records began in 1957.
The UN's State of Wildfires report found that extreme wildfires released over 8 billion tonnes of CO2 during the March 2024-February 2025 fire season -- more than twice India's annual emissions and covering an area larger than the country itself.
The last time the planet saw comparable CO2 levels was three to five million years ago, according to New Scientist magazine.
Methane and nitrous oxide -- the second and third most potent greenhouse gases -- also hit record highs.
Aggravating the situation, the Donald Trump administration scuttled plans by the UN's International Maritime Organization to make shipping the first global industry subject to carbon pricing.
Climate negotiators now fear that a fossil fuel-friendly, sceptical Trump administration could derail COP30.
From Berlin to Belem: A lost plot
The first COP meeting was held in Berlin in 1995 under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
"The COPs were always a serious platform for governments and experts to reach consensus on the way forward," said Rashmi, who led Indian delegations at several sessions.
"Participation was originally limited to governments and agencies with the technical and scientific capacity to understand the issues."
That changed in 2009 at the Copenhagen summit.
"It became a very political exercise," Rashmi said.
Initially, developed nations -- mainly the G20 -- drove the climate agenda, though obligations rested only with the G8, led by the US.
Around 2006-2007, Washington declared it would not participate in any future climate regime unless all major economies joined in.
The Europeans went further, seeking a legally binding commitment -- something the US resisted.
"They wanted developing nations to stand behind their commitments and report their actions. That's how the transparency provision was inserted, which didn't exist in the UNFCCC for developing countries," Rashmi said.
Copenhagen was a turning point for India and other developing nations.
Earlier, they had no obligation to take or report climate actions, nor to be held accountable.
Developed countries, however, faced international scrutiny.
The push was to get China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia to accept similar obligations.
India, China, and the G77 resisted. "We agreed to take national actions, but not to be bound by international obligations to reduce emissions," Rashmi said.
Eventually, in 2015 at COP21, both developed and developing countries signed the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change.
"The Paris Agreement had something for everyone," Rashmi said.
"It's legally binding, as the Europeans wanted, but it lets developing nations set their own targets in light of the global goal. It's not a top-down system."
Copenhagen also marked a dramatic shift in participation. Attendance swelled sixfold to 40,000 after European negotiators co-opted civil society to pressure developing nations, Rashmi recalled.
By COP28 in Dubai, the number had doubled again.
"This crowd of people is distracting governments from focusing on negotiations," Rashmi said.
"Though civil society adds momentum and pushes governments towards higher targets, it also dilutes the negotiating process."
For any real progress to be made, Rashmi added, the COP's structure itself needs revisiting -- to separate negotiations from implementation.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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