Who will win UP, Punjab in 2027? Pollster Pradeep Gupta predicts

An analyst suggests the BJP is well-positioned for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections, while Punjab's political landscape remains fluid with a fragmented four-way contest.

With less than a year to go for the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the ruling BJP appears to be in a comfortable position, with people largely satisfied with the performance of the Yogi Adityanath government, according to Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta.

At the same time, Gupta said the political mood in Punjab was far more fluid, with public satisfaction towards the ruling AAP remaining "mixed" amid the emergence of a fragmented four-cornered contest in the state.

Uttar Pradesh Election Outlook

In an interview to PTI on Wednesday, Gupta shared observations from his agency's fieldwork in the two politically crucial states, both of which are scheduled to vote in early 2027 and whose outcomes are expected to have wider national implications.

"If we consider the feedback in totality from Uttar Pradesh, then one can say that the satisfaction percentage is good. Keeping that in mind, as things stand today, one does not see much trouble (for the BJP) in Uttar Pradesh," Gupta said.

He, however, cautioned against reading the political situation in the state as settled. "But Uttar Pradesh is a different kind of state where the situation changes very quickly," he added.

Punjab's Complex Political Dynamics

Gupta said Axis My India's ground teams begin working in poll-bound states at least a year in advance, allowing the agency to capture shifts in public sentiment well before elections are announced.

On Punjab, Gupta said the electoral dynamics were more complex due to the presence of four distinct political formations instead of the three-cornered contest seen in 2017 and 2022.

"In Punjab, the situation is mixed. Some sections of society are satisfied, but now four parties are visible in the contest. Earlier, there were effectively three formations - the AAP, the Congress, and the NDA, with the Akali Dal and BJP contesting together," he said.

Impact of Vote Fragmentation

Gupta argued that in a fragmented electoral contest, even modest vote shares could translate into victory if the opposition vote splinters.

"When four parties are in the fray, like Uttar Pradesh used to witness earlier, even 26 per cent vote share can bring a full majority. The Samajwadi Party once formed a majority government with around 26 per cent votes, and Mayawati did so with around 29 per cent," he said.

"So even if one-third, or around 33 per cent, people are satisfied, and votes get divided, the party with 25 per cent can also win. Elections are ultimately decided by how votes are distributed," Gupta said, describing Punjab as a "very interesting" political contest at the moment.