The extent of doubts over the fairness of this election can be assessed by juxtaposing two figures: Total votes polled by the two principal parties and the number of people who were disallowed from voting this time, observes Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
Key Points
- There is no denying that the Bharatiya Janata Party's stunning victory was facilitated significantly by the Election Commission of India, central security forces and Union government officials, enlisted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for various purposes.
- Eventually, the BJP polled 32,11,427 votes more than the TMC's 26,013,377. On the other hand, an estimated 27 lakh voters were ultimately marked as ineligible after the adjudication process.
- Because people were denied the opportunity to cast their votes in the recent election in West Bengal, can this election be declared as completely lawful?
The results of the assembly elections to four states and a Union Territory are a mixed bag despite the obvious commonality of strong anti-incumbent sentiment in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala while Assam and Puducherry returned the current government to office, in the former with a runaway victory.
Of these, the verdict from the first two states have epochal implications, although for completely different reasons.
If we view the unabashed Hindu majoritarian victory in Assam, along with the BJP's spectacular triumph over the TMC in West Bengal, the defeat of the Left in Kerala and the return of the BJP-aligned All India N R Congress in the UT, it is evident that Indian polity has decisively taken a rightward turn.
Anti-Incumbency and BJP's Triumph
There is no denying that the magnitude of the BJP's victory in West Bengal was greatly to do with a strong anti-Trinamool Congress/Mamata Banerjee sentiment for a variety of reasons.
This anti-incumbent rage was directed on account of the state government being in a comatose state for the past few years (after a promising start in 2011 and lasting till 2016-2017) and the thoroughly unjustified arrogance of the ruling power duo, the aunt-nephew team of Mamata Banerjee and her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee.
However, there is also no denying that the Bharatiya Janata Party's stunning victory was also facilitated significantly by the Election Commission of India, central security forces and Union government officials, enlisted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for various purposes.
Questions Over ECI's Role and Voter Disenfranchisement
Since October 2025, when the Election Commission of India announced the decision to conduct the Special Intensive Revision of the electoral rolls in the states where polls were held in this round -- the one in Assam was conducted separately -- it was clear that the time available was too limited when viewed within the framework of the work at hand.
Yet the Election Commission of India pushed ahead and the Supreme Court emerged undeniably as facilitator of the poll body's intentions.
The extent of doubts over the fairness of this election can be assessed by juxtaposing two figures: Total votes polled by the two principal parties and the number of people who were disallowed from voting this time although the Supreme Court stated that these people could return as voters in the rolls, if they were subsequently able to provide the required proof required to be legally listed as voters by the Election Commission of India.
Eventually, the BJP polled 32,11,427 votes more than the TMC's tally of 26,013,377. On the other hand, an estimated 27 lakh voters were ultimately marked as ineligible after the adjudication process.
In addition, approximately 34 lakh appeals were filed before the 19 appellate tribunals established to review the cases of those voters whose names were excluded.
Thereby, there are a total of 27 lakh to 34 lakh individuals currently have their appeals in the adjudication pipeline.
It is fairly possible that a significant number of these people will succeed in their names being included in the electoral rolls once again. But because they were denied the opportunity to cast their votes in the recent election in West Bengal, can this election be declared as completely lawful?
Election Commission of India's Integrity Under Scrutiny
Since 2014, the Election Commission of India's integrity has consistently being questioned and there have been numerous instances involving the highest echelons of the Commission.
There has been no response from the government on the two major incidents that triggered questions over the Commission's neutrality.
These were the episodes involving the dissent of Ashok Lavasa in 2019 and the abrupt resignation of Arun Goel in 2024.
In the course of the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, Lavasa disagreed with the Election Commission of India's 'clean chits' to Modi and then BJP president Amit Shah on alleged violations of the Model Code of Conduct.
False cases were filed against members of Lavasa's family and he subsequently resigned well before his tenure was to end.
Goel shockingly resigned in March 2024 days away from the Election Commission of India announcing the election schedule.
Although 'personal reasons' was attributed to be the reason, there was numerous speculation regarding differences between Goel and then chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar.
Communalisation of the Campaign
A significant section of people and members of civil society, including one-time psephologist and now robust campaigner against the SIR, political activist Yogendra Yadav argued that the elections in Bengal were 'a litmus test of whether we have fallen below the minimum threshold of electoral integrity, whether electoral democracy has any future at all.'
Given the questions that are posed by the aforesaid number of SIR deletions and votes polled, there are questions over whether this election was fair and impartial.
It is for the Opposition parties to close ranks and raise this matter. If the TMC was denied a victory, or at least the contest was tighter than what this verdict demonstrates, every Opposition party, which can challenge the BJP in their stronghold states, must prepare themselves to face a similar fate.
The Bengal verdict was virtually made foolproof by the BJP by communalising the electoral campaign.
Mamata Banerjee's official victor, Suvendu Adhikari, repeatedly asserted during his campaign speeches and while providing sound bites to the media, that all sections of Hindus were united behind the BJP.
Such blatant efforts at soliciting votes in the name of religious identity were a violation of the Representation of the People Act 1951 and the Model Code of Conduct.
Seeking votes on the basis of the religious identity of voters is a severe electoral offence and the one accused is liable to face stern action.
Impact on Bengal's Polity and Economy
The danger to India's integrity from the BJP's communalised campaign and the impact on Bengal's polity need not be retold.
The state faced decade-long strife on the basis of religious identity of people through the 1940s.
After Partition, communal riots on the Indian side of the border were essentially in the nature of 'retaliatory cycles' -- violence across the border against Hindus resulted in strikes against Muslims in India.
In response to the clashes in Khulna (East Pakistan), there were riots in Howrah and Kolkata -- even trains were stopped and urban slums were attacked.
This phase resulted in the Nehru-Liaquat Pact which was aimed at protecting minorities in both countries.
Yet, nearly 7 lakh Muslims left West Bengal. The number of Muslims in West Bengal is estimated to be nearly 30% and continued attacks on them, physical or even verbal, could have terrible impact and lead to economic consequences, as the BJP's plan to revive the state's economy will be jeopardised.
After having upped the ante as far as communalisation of the state is concerned, it remains to be seen if the BJP works towards cooling passions.
This is a necessity because only a society which is not in the grips of constant inter-community strife, can provide the environment for economic growth.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay's latest book is The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project. He is also the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. His X handle is @NilanjanUdwin
Photographs curated by Manisha Kotian/Rediff
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
