The report suggests that Iran may be spreading out smaller missile launches throughout the day to repeatedly force civilians into shelters and keep the country under constant alert, rather than relying on sustained large-scale barrages.
Key Points
- Institute for the Study of War warns Iran may intensify attacks with larger missile salvos to create psychological pressure in Israel.
- Iranian cluster munition strike in central Israel killed one person and injured several; multiple attacks reported through the day.
- Iran has launched over 450 missiles since February 28, with most intercepted but several causing damage in populated areas.
- Israel Defense Forces strikes on Iranian infrastructure and joint operations have degraded Tehran’s missile capabilities.
- Houthi forces launched their first missile at Israel, signalling potential regional escalation and broader conflict involvement..
A new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War has warned that Iran could escalate its attacks on Israel by launching large missile salvos aimed at maximising psychological pressure on civilians.
The report suggests that Iran may be spreading out smaller missile launches throughout the day to repeatedly force civilians into shelters and keep the country under constant alert, rather than relying on sustained large-scale barrages.
Cluster Munitions and Civilian Impact
On the ground, the threat has already materialised.
An Iranian ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead struck central Israel on Friday, killing one person and injuring several others, according to local authorities.
The attack, part of multiple strikes throughout the day, dispersed smaller bomblets over a wide area, hitting residential zones and causing injuries from both direct impact and shrapnel.
Emergency services reported multiple impact sites, while additional missile launches later targeted southern and northern regions, triggering sirens but causing no further casualties.
Iran has fired more than 450 ballistic missiles at Israel since the conflict began on February 28, with a reported interception rate of 92 per cent for threats aimed at populated areas and key infrastructure.
Strategy Reflects Military Constraints
The think tank assessment noted that Iran’s increasing reliance on cluster munitions and staggered attacks likely reflects limitations in its ability to strike precise military targets.
It added that joint US-Israeli operations have degraded Iran's missile capabilities, including efforts to disrupt access to underground launch facilities.
Recent strikes by Israel Defence Forces targeted key nuclear-linked infrastructure, including facilities associated with plutonium production and the uranium fuel cycle.
Houthis Enter the Fray
In a significant development, Yemen's Houthi forces launched their first missile towards Israel since the start of 'Operation Roaring Lion', marking a potential widening of the conflict.
According to the IDF, air defence systems intercepted the missile after sirens sounded across the Negev region, including Beersheba. No casualties or direct impacts were reported.
The launch follows warnings from Houthi leadership of possible direct military intervention if US-Israeli operations against Iran and allied groups continue to escalate.
Regional Escalation Risks Grow
Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree заявил that Yemeni forces are prepared for intervention, citing 'religious and moral responsibility' and warning against further escalation, including actions in the Red Sea.
The statement also called for adherence to a ceasefire in Gaza and cautioned against increased pressure on Yemen, framing the conflict as part of a broader regional struggle involving the so-called 'Axis of Resistance'.
