'Vijay's Economic Policies Are Ultra-Left, Like MamataDi's'

'If you read the TVK manifesto, it is doles and much more doles. But the state has been habituated to this.'
'In no way is he distinct or different from the DMK regime.'

Vijay's victory in the Tamil Nadu assembly election is stunning.

"Vijay versus Udhayanidhi can pan out for the next 30 years. Both are young, both are around their 40s and 50s, so they have another 25 to 30 years of active life ahead of them. They may cross swords for the next four or five assembly terms," Political commentator M R Venkatesh tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

'My domestic help said she got money from the DMK and AIADMK but voted for TVK!'

How do you react to the Tamil Nadu assembly election result?

Frankly, I was shocked, stunned and stumped.

I was totally clueless about what was happening, partly because of two reasons.

The DMK echo chambers and the local media were consistently giving reports that the DMK was coming back to power.

The national media and the North Indian channels were repeatedly pointing out that AIADMK could come back to power.

And both sides were fooled by the presence of Vijay.

So there was no way an armchair analyst like me could have gauged the popularity of Vijay.

After the voting was over, a good friend of mine Arun Giri, who had done exit polls in seven constituencies in Chennai, told me that the DMK was getting wiped out.

He went on to say that the father and son (Chief Minister M K Stalin and Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin) could lose.

I was on a television channel after the exit polls were out and the DMK spokesperson said that a large number of exit polls are favouring the DMK, but his body language did not say so.

I had a conversation with my domestic help and she said she got money from the DMK and the AIADMK but voted for TVK!

'We cannot rule out the TVK's tireless social media campaign'

Did she say why she voted for Vijay?

I asked her why. Her answer was, let us give them a chance.

I said, you never said this last week. She said, yes, till last week, we were undecided. And we are traditionally AIADMK voters. But we voted for Vijay.

It was a last minute tsunami.

This kind of change probably happened one or two or three days prior to the elections.

Having said that, we cannot rule out the TVK's tireless social media campaign. People trolling and putting out videos questioning the DMK and AIADMK.

They took the entire Opposition space, which we did not see.

Today we have to give weightage to the unconventional media more which we gave to say The Hindu or the Express 20 years back.

Today, the method of communication has totally changed. A simple troll in a video may have more impact on that age category of voters than probably on me as a discerning voter.

So all put together, there are good reasons why we did not anticipate this last minute tsunami. And the traditional voters of the DMK and AIADMK deserted them, which never has happened before.

It is said that Vijay's appeal to young people worked wonders. They were able to influence the elders in the family to vote for Vijay.

Vijay did not have an organisation. Vijay did not have booth committees. Vijay did not even campaign in all 234 constituencies.

Instead what he did was he converted his disadvantage into an advantage by making every single fan base of his into a booth committee member.

He persuaded them to persuade the elders, the aunts, the uncles, cousins, grandfather, grandmother, everybody in the family to come and vote for him.

And those youngsters relentlessly worked, which again was not visible. Because this was happening in the household. How do we hear what is happening in a household?

I would call it below the radar campaigning, and it was done with a great amount of finesse. There was no loud noise.

Of course, Vijay was very popular. He appealed on his charisma.

We can hardly name 10 candidates of Vijay's party. That's a fact. But they became giant killers.

Can you believe the chief minister of Tamil Nadu lost in his own constituency, Kolathur?

These type of things probably happen once in a generation in an election.

'The first one to haemorrhage more will be the AIADMK'

Is this the end of Dravidian politics in Tamil Nadu?

I don't think so.

It will be funny to see the DMK and AIADMK sitting on the same side in the assembly.

The first one to haemorrhage more will be the AIADMK. It may split; some may join the TVK, and some may find solace in the DMK.

The second possibility that I am looking at is if they are going to hold on to whatever they are doing, they will have more haemorrhages.

And the next election, probably when it happens in 2031, there may be new players.

Then these two players are not going to find their feet.

One criticism against Vijay is that he has not spoken about what he is going to do for the state, and that he was not clear about his political ideology.. In a hung assembly, will he be able to survive five years?

He has not even taken the oath. We cannot be critical about him. We should not be.

Courtesy demands we keep our mouth shut and watch him because there is a mandate by the people.

I will be failing in my duty if I criticise him within the first 100 days.

Let him give the budget, let him take over the state, let him say what his policies are.

Of course, he has given a very populist manifesto which is unimplementable.

But people have voted for him. It also means to what extent the rot had set in, you can see how much people know.

If he says, 'Sorry boss, I'm not able to implement my manifesto which I had given. It was all done in a rush of adrenaline. Pardon me because the state's treasury is virtually empty. The DMK has left a scorched earth policy and we have very little to do in terms of implementation.'

So we should give him some time to see what he is going to do.

For example, about women's security which has taken a big hit during the DMK period. The rape inside the Anna University campus, and the Bihari couple losing their life... all these things have had an impact on voters.

Today is not what it was 20 years back. Today because of the IT revolution even in places like Trichy and Coimbatore, women may have to come back from office at 2 am and not 8 pm. Families cannot be worried about women's safety every day.

This is a very big issue and perhaps the DMK did not properly address.

Second thing is the corruption. I hope Vijay goes against the DMK for being corrupt and the corrupt practices they have done.

The third one will be Tasmac. The state virtually survives on Tasmac, revenue wise and also figuratively.

If 40% of the people are addicted to liquor and that is how you generate your revenue, and that revenue allows you to give freebies after freebies, you are caught in a vicious cycle.

Vijay has to somehow or the other break that cycle.

Next is drugs. Drugs is no longer ganja here, synthetic drugs have come in. This is a law and order issue.

All the four issues I mentioned are interlinked to only one thing, and that is law and order.

Let us give Vijay some time and I hope he will deliver.

'I am sure the state's bureaucracy will have a very tough time'

Is it an advantage or disadvantage for Vijay to have no experienced politicians with him? Will it be an advantage to have inexperienced people with fresh ideas?

Maybe it is an advantage. Why should we look at it as a disadvantage?

They will ask fundamental questions about something that happened 30 years back. Definitely, the ministers are going to ask so many questions. So it's going to be fun.

I am sure the state's bureaucracy will have a very tough time.

I am equally confident that order will prevail shortly.

There will be some chaos, but they will somehow manage.

After several decades, Tamil Nadu is going to have a non-Dravidian party in government....

I don't define Vijay's TVK as a non-Dravidian party.

The party's name does not have Dravidian in it, but it doesn't mean the party doesn't believe in Dravidian ideology.

Those are two distinct things. In my view, he believes in Dravidian ideology.

His economic policies are ultra-left, like MamataDi's. If you read the manifesto, it is doles and much more doles. So it is ultra-left.

But the state has been habituated to this.

In no way is he distinct or different from the previous regime. The only thing that may be different will be the manner of administration.

If he keeps fundamental things in order, I presume he would have done his job at least to the bare minimum.

Are we seeing a generational shift in Tamil Nadu politics with Vijay as chief minister and most probably Udhayanidhi Stalin as the leader of the Opposition?

Yes. Udhayanidhi, if he plays his cards well, it will be like Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi for 30 years beginning in 1989.

In that way, Vijay versus Udhayanidhi can pan out for the next 30 years.

Both are young, both are around their 40s and 50s, so they have another 25 to 30 years of active life ahead of them. They may cross swords for the next four or five assembly terms.

It will definitely be curtains for OPS, EPS and Stalin. These three chief ministers probably should take political sanyas now.

So, you are optimistic about the state's political future?

I am optimistic. But I am guarded. There is nothing to suggest that I should be pessimistic.

• Battle Of 5 States

Photographs curated by Manisha Kotian/Rediff
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff