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'Rain Deficiency Has Been Wiped Out'

By PRASANNNA D ZORE
July 08, 2024 09:17 IST
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'Usually the average rainfall per day is around 8 mm and India is receiving 10 to 11 mm per day since the last one week.'
'July seems to be very good for the entire country.'

IMAGE: A scene from rain soaked Mumbai, July 7, 2024. Photograph: Saahil Salvi
 

Skymet Vice President Mahesh Palawat shares the weather update for Mumbai, the west coast of India and the progress of monsoon over India on a day when Mumbai woke up to intense rain showers and social media has been flooded with messages of water-logging across the Maximum City.

"Thunder clouds are still hovering over Mumbai and adjoining areas and the trough will continue from north Konkan to the Kerala coast leading to intense showers along the west coast of the country for the next three to four days at least," Palawat tells Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com

Social media is flooded with messages that there is water logging everywhere in Mumbai. That there have been heavy rains across the city. What's the weather forecast for Mumbai for the rest of the day and the week ahead for Mumbai and adjoining areas?

The offshore trough which was extending from south Gujarat to the Kerala coast has become more prominent. That's why rain activities had intensified over North Konkan and Goa including Mumbai and adjoining areas. The Santacruz Observatory has already recorded 211 mm of rain.

That is very heavy rain in a very short span of time. And the thunderclouds are still hovering over Mumbai and adjoining areas. So that's why the intensity of rain will be moderate to heavy over many parts of Mumbai for another two to three hours at least.

We expect that rains will be intense. The intensity will be more from the 9th, 10th and 11th July because the weather system is moving towards North Konkan and Goa leading to intense rainfall over Mumbai.

Thane, Dahanu, Palghar, Alibaug and all the areas in the southern parts of coastal Maharashtra like Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri and Mahabaleshwar may also receive moderate to heavy showers.

The next few days seems to be good for Mumbai. But yes, this today's heavy downpour might have led to water logging and traffic jam over many parts of Mumbai and suburbs.

The intensity will not be as severe as we have seen today in the morning (since 2 am on the intervening night of July 7 and 8) because in the span of three hours heavy rain has occurred.

Now, intensity will gradually reduce. But on and off showers will continue throughout the day with short breaks in between.

How much has it rained in the last three-four hours?

211 mm as per the IMD data from the Santacruz Observatory.

But (on an average) it might be in the range of say 100 to 150 mm in many parts of Mumbai because the intensity of rain differs from place to place. Heavy rain is going on over many parts (in Mumbai).

Thunder clouds are still hovering over Mumbai and adjoining areas and the trough will continue from north Konkan to the Kerala coast leading to intense showers along the west coast of the country for the next three to four days at least.

What's the rain forecast for the western coast of India in the next few days or the week ahead?

The intensity will be good around 9-10-11 of July. Many parts (along the west coast of India) like Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Goa, Belgavi, Honavar, Karwar, Uttar Kannada, Dakshin Kanada in Karnataka may also receive three digit rainfall in the coming days.

This seems to be the norm for the west coast for the next few days and the monsoon will be active over these areas. South Gujarat may also get moderate showers but intensity will be more over Maharashtra coast.

How has been the progress of the monsoon this season?

We say June ended with a deficiency of 11% for the entire country. But until July 7 this deficiency has been wiped out because there was good rain in the first week of July over most parts of the country.

The rain deficiency of 11% has been wiped out and it has turned into a surplus by 2%.

We can say the daily average of the rainfall is more than the daily rain because usually the average rainfall per day is around 8 mm and India is receiving say 10 to 11 mm per day since the last one week.

July seems to be very good for the entire country because the Enso neutral conditions (external link) are now in place.

We think that Weather Systems (external link) will also start developing over the Bay of Bengal in the latter part of July and they will travel in a westerly direction.

So the central parts of India as well as parts of east India, northwest India and west coast of the country may receive decent showers.

Any specific rain alert for Mumbai?

Not for now. Earlier it was a Red Alert like situation (in Mumbai) but it has not been issued by the Indian Meteorological Department. For now the Orange Alert will continue for another say 3-4 hours.

Thereafter there will be gradual decrease in rain intensity. Then again by the 9th and 10th of July (rain) intensity will go up.

Any forecast on how much more will pour in Mumbai today, tomorrow?

Today (July 8) we think that now another 40 to 50 mm may be there. Then tomorrow (July 9) also we think that it will be less than today, say 60 to 70 mm range is anticipated tomorrow as well.

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PRASANNNA D ZORE
 
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