'Munir hopes to solidify his hold on power.'
Asim Munir is the second general to be elevated to field marshal in Pakistan.
Field marshal is the highest military rank conferred for exceptional leadership, especially during war. It is largely a ceremonial rank with five stars.
Ayub Khan was Pakistan's first field marshal. He conferred the rank on himself in 1959, a year after overthrowing the president in a military coup.
He went on to rule Pakistan for 10 years.
Pakistan has been under martial law four times since Partition.
What lies behind Asim Munir's sudden elevation by Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif's cabinet?
What is the extent of Munir's grand ambition after securing a three year extension as army chief by a parliamentary amendment in November 2024?
"Munir already enjoys all the trappings of power, and he is back on the front foot after a long period of difficulty. Declaring formal military rule would have reputational costs, and potentially deleteriously economic implications, that Munir and the military would much rather avoid," says Dr Michael Kugelman, an expert on Pakistan, tells Rediff's Archana Masih.
What is the reason behind General Asim Munir's sudden elevation as field marshal?
To understand the reason, one must know who was behind the elevation -- Munir himself, or the civilian leadership.
I suspect it was the latter, in an effort to play up Pakistan's achievements and bolster the notion of victory during the recent conflict with India.
In essence, it's about signalling that the victory must have been especially great given that Munir was given the unusual honour of a promotion like this.
What is the extent of Munir's ambition? What hopes does he harbour?
His ambition appears to be tied to aspirations of longevity. Already, legislation has been passed that extends the chief of army staff's term from 3 to 5 years.
Munir likely hopes to solidify his hold on power, and especially after having had a very rocky first few years as army chief.
It's never too early to think about legacy issues, after all.
One of the unknowns at this point is if he goes the route of Qamar Javed Bajwa and others and looks for an extension, or if he goes the route of Raheel Sharif and is OK with just a single term.
Either way, if the new legislation is honoured, he could be in power for five years at the least. And that would give him time to try to rehabilitate his image -- something that will be tough, even after the boost he got from the recent conflict with India.
Is Pakistan headed for another period of martial rule and another military dictator?
I don't anticipate any change in status to the current set up.
Munir already enjoys all the trappings of power, and he is back on the front foot -- for now -- after a long period of difficulty.
Declaring formal military rule would have reputational costs, and potentially deleteriously economic implications, that Munir and the military would much rather avoid.
How is this elevation likely to be viewed within the Pakistan army and the people of Pakistan?
For those concerned about the lack of checks on power in Pakistan -- and by extension concerned about the limitations of democracy -- this move won't go down well.
And these days, plenty of people in Pakistan are unhappy about democracy's struggles.
As for views within the army, that would depend on what level of consultation or buy-in there was from other senior officers.
If that buy-in wasn't sought or secured, there may well be some ruffled feathers.
Is there going to be a backlash by the large number of Imran Khan supporters? Does Imran's release from prison become even more difficult now?
I would say that irrespective of the field marshal promotion issue, Munir and the broader military will be emboldened by the events of recent days, and the surge of goodwill flowing to the armed forces, and they'll double down on the policies that have made them unpopular.
And that includes the clampdown on the PTI (Imran Khan's political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf) and the continued imprisonment of Khan.
I would think Khan's chances of getting released so long as Munir remains in his post remain quite low. But then again given the unpredictabilities of Pakistani politics, who knows?
Who do you think Munir will appoint as army chief after his tenure ends in 2027? What role will he don after 2027 as the rank of field marshal will essentially be a ceremonial rank post-retirement?
Well, we don't know for sure that Munir won't receive an extension after 2027. Extensions have become the norm in Pakistan's recent history.
Raheel Sharif was the outlier. With Munir, much will depend on how he feels about the legacy issue by the time the end of his term comes around -- and how he feels it can best be burnished.
If he's unpopular again, would he feel that he can change that for the better with a second term? Or better to step away before things get worse?
That said, another perspective is that with the field marshal promotion, he has no more reason to stick around beyond a single term given that he's achieved the highest level possible on the military hierarchy.
Is there a past Munir is trying to emulate?
Given that Ayub Khan is the only other Pakistani to receive the promotion to field marshal, he's the one that naturally comes to mind.
But he's a far different figure than Munir. On the whole, it's hard to imagine who Munir may be trying to emulate, given that he is quite different from so many of his predecessors, given the religiosity factor and his lack of Westernisation.
Ultimately, he may simply be trying to chart his own unique path, with no intentions of aligning himself with any of his predecessors.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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