'The writing is on the wall for both Shinde and Ajit Pawar.'
"Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar joined the BJP alliance to save themselves from various cases and investigations. Now they are completely dependent on the BJP's goodwill," Sudhir Suryawanshi, senior journalist and long-time observer of Maharashtra politics, tells Prasanna D Zore/Rediff in the concluding segment of a two-part interview.
"The moment the BJP withdraws that protection, they are finished. They are surviving only because the BJP allows them to survive. But the BJP's patience has limits especially when these allies can't even deliver their own traditional strongholds."
- PART 1 of the interview: 'Devendra Fadnavis Is King of Kings'
What are the biggest takeaways for the key players -- Devendra Fadnavis, Uddhav Thackeray, Raj Thackeray, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar? What has each gained or lost?
The big takeaway is that Devendra Fadnavis has again proved himself as the leader of Maharashtra. After Sharad Pawar, he is the only person who has achieved so much success in state politics.
Secondly, he has expanded his party's base not just in cities but in every nook and corner of Maharashtra. Earlier, the BJP was untouchable in many pockets of the state, but by bringing in leaders like Ashok Chavan and other Maratha stalwarts, they've made inroads.
They knew they couldn't penetrate those bases directly, so they chose to hijack the leaders themselves -- automatically, the base comes along.
He has used the ED and CBI, threatened people indirectly, so they had no option but to join the BJP.
Politics is all about this ruthlessness; very few show mercy.
But here's the other point: If you remove his power -- if he weren't the chief minister, if the BJP weren't in power at the Centre and in the state -- would Fadnavis be as powerful as he is today? I don't think so.
I feel he's not a mass leader but a good manager. He manages things exceptionally well, in a way that would surprise even Harvard MBA graduates. He has charisma, but it's charisma with power. I don't see his charisma working without power.
I know Maharashtra well, and I don't think he has the mass appeal that Sharad Pawar has. Power is the main glowing factor, the major expanding and dominating factor of his leadership. We cannot take that away.
What about Uddhav Thackeray? What's his path forward after these results?
Uddhav Thackeray may have lost in the BMC (BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation election), but he's not out of state politics. Today in Maharashtra, he is the only person speaking against the government, against the BJP, against the BJP and RSS policies.
Even the Congress and other parties aren't doing this as aggressively as he has been doing it. If he works tirelessly with his son (Aditya Thackeray), covers Maharashtra extensively through rallies, and establishes himself as an alternative to Devendra Fadnavis and the BJP, then he and his party have a good future.
Why?
Because Marathis continue to vote for him. Muslims are not allergic to Uddhav, and Dalits aren't either. If the major chunks of the state -- Muslims, Dalits, and Marathis -- decisively rally behind him, then he and his son have a bright future. But there's a condition: they need to work hard. Harder and harder.
The times when the Thackerays could sit in Matoshree (their home in suburban Mumbai) and things would work out for them are gone. There's huge competition in politics now -- Shinde is there, Ajit Pawar is there, Raj Thackeray is there, and multiple players are in the field.
You can't do exclusive politics -- saying you'll only meet people at certain times. That won't help at all. They need to be on the streets, among the people, 24/7. Only then will it help Uddhav Thackeray grow as he expects.
'The moment the BJP doesn't want him, Shinde will be wiped out'
And what about Eknath Shinde and both factions of the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party)-- Sharad Pawar's and Ajit Pawar's?
The BJP created Eknath Shinde's faction because they wanted to topple Uddhav Thackeray's government. They offered him the lucrative chief ministership for two-and-a-half years, and he thought he'd continue in the next government as well.
But when the BJP's numbers came through, they showed him his rightful place as deputy CM.
In the future, I don't think Shinde's party will survive because both parties have the same plank, the same agenda, and the same voter base. The way the BJP wanted to destroy or make Shiv Sena (UBT) redundant because of ideological differences, they don't want to see any competitor.
The same thing will be done to Shinde's Sena, and it's very easy because Shinde's Sena is their own child, their own baby. It won't take much time. They've already shown this in the civic body elections.
Fadnavis has repeatedly said in his speeches that he's the boss. He said during the assembly elections that number one is number one -- number two has no value. As long as the BJP wants Shinde, he'll remain. The moment the BJP doesn't want him, Shinde will be wiped out. Some (belonging to Shinde's Shiv Sena) will be absorbed into the BJP, and others will go wherever they find a place.
What are the chances of the BJP doing to Eknath Shinde in Mumbai what Eknath Shinde did to Uddhav Thackeray? He has 29 corporators -- can the BJP break his party anytime?
By 2029, the BJP will act differently. Amit Shah, the Union home minister and top BJP leader, has already declared in Maharashtra that they can walk without crutches. He said this at a rally addressing party workers a few months back. That means they don't need Ajit Pawar or Eknath Shinde anymore for the 2029 state assembly elections.
The BJP will go on its own. The same template they are using in the civic body elections will be implemented there. Wherever they need help, they'll take it, but they won't take their help everywhere.
And Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are in no position to deny the BJP that help?
No, they don't have the position. They don't have the moral right or authority to say anything against the BJP. They are at the mercy of the BJP; they don't have options.
My information is that after the civic body elections, the BJP may carry out a major operation and show Ajit Pawar his place -- ask him to sit in the Opposition. The same will happen with Eknath Shinde, sooner or later.
'They don't want someone who is a liability; they want assets'
Why Ajit Pawar? Because he has lost all authority as well as power after surrendering meekly in the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, which are considered his bastions?
Anybody -- the BJP or any other party -- would not like to carry baggage. Everybody loves power and the power-giver. If someone is not able to add value to them, why would they continue supplying power to that person? It's better to cut them off and disown them.
There's also the matter of Ajit Pawar's Rs 70,000 crore irrigation scam, which the BJP recently brought into the limelight. BJP leaders have said the matter is now sub judice, which means the file is not closed.
Secondly, they can bring to his notice his son Parth Pawar's 40-acre land issue. They can tell him he's more of a liability than an asset. He can be easily arm-twisted. They don't want someone who is a liability; they want assets. So he will be shown his place as well.
So essentially, both Shinde and Ajit Pawar can be easily pressured to fall in line with whatever the BJP wants?
Absolutely. They have no leverage. The BJP has all the cards -- the central agencies, the power, the resources. Shinde and Ajit Pawar joined the BJP alliance to save themselves from various cases and investigations. Now they are completely dependent on the BJP's goodwill.
The moment the BJP withdraws that protection, they are finished. They are surviving only because the BJP allows them to survive. But the BJP's patience has limits especially when these allies can't even deliver their own traditional strongholds.
'By 2029, the BJP wants to be in a position where they don't need anyone'
Based on your analysis and insider information, what should we expect in the coming months? You mentioned a major operation by the BJP.
According to my information, the BJP is planning a major 'Operation Kamal' in the coming days, particularly targeting Ajit Pawar and possibly Shinde as well.
After the civic body elections have exposed their weaknesses, the BJP sees no reason to continue carrying them as equals. They'll either be reduced to completely subservient roles or pushed out entirely.
The BJP's message is clear: By 2029, they want to be in a position where they don't need anyone. These municipal elections were a testing ground for that strategy, and from the BJP's perspective, the test has been successful.
The coming months will be crucial. Watch for defections from both Shinde's camp and Ajit Pawar's camp back to the BJP.
Watch for how the BJP allocates power and resources in these newly won municipal corporations -- they'll reward their own and sideline the allies. And watch for how the central agencies suddenly become active again on certain cases.
The writing is on the wall for both Shinde and Ajit Pawar.
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