'The Threat From COVID-19 Is Over'

'...and unlikely to return.'

More than 250 covid cases were reported in May in India.

These cases were reported soon after the news of a surge in covid cases in Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong.

Do we have to worry about another covid outbreak?

Or, what we see is just a seasonal surge?

"This virus will remain with us all the time, and there is a possibility that a few years from now, it may become an entirely different virus than what we have today. This is how viruses behave," Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, a leading public health expert and an authority on infectious diseases and preventive medicine, vaccines and immunisation, tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

Is the surge in the number of covid cases in some parts of Asia akin to the seasonal ups and downs we see in the case of flu, dengue, etc?
Or, is it anything more than that?

What we need to remember is, respiratory viruses follow a certain pattern.

Five years ago, when the SARS-Cov-2 virus appeared, it was a novel respiratory virus. Nowhere was it reported. Everyone was susceptible, nobody was immune and nobody was vaccinated.

Now, it is a virus that is already in existence in the community. It is a different matter whether infections are happening or not. But it exists in all the settings.

All the respiratory viruses follow a seasonal pattern like flu. For example, in India, flu makes a seasonal appearance in February, March and July, August and September when the room temperature is low.

What we see now is the same seasonal pattern for respiratory viruses like the SARS-Covid-2.

Because the SARS-Covid-2 infection was so severe when it first appeared because it was a relatively new virus, the entire population was affected.

Yes, we are yet to understand what the seasonal pattern for SARS-Covid-2. But it has to be remembered that all the viruses follow a seasonal and cyclical pattern.

For example, in Singapore, it is reported that they see a spike in SARS-Covid-2 cases every 6 to 9 months.

In my opinion, what is happening right now is, like the seasonal flu, we are seeing a seasonal pattern in covid cases too.

Does that mean people do not have to worry about such a spike?

There is no reason to be worried about the COVID-19 virus.

Like all the other viruses, will the SARS-Covid-2 virus also remain amongst us while mutating all the time?

All the viruses, especially the RNA viruses keep mutating all the time.

Also, this virus will remain with us all the time, and there is a possibility that a few years from now, it may become an entirely different virus than what we have today. This is how viruses behave.

The Singapore health ministry said the sudden spike could be because of waning immunity among people. Do you feel that way?

Of course, waning immunity is true. When immunity wanes, you become more susceptible to disease.

But we do not know how frequently immunity wanes in the case of the SARS-Covid-2 virus.

In India, it is circulating at a lower level, and people are regularly getting exposed to the virus. In the process, they get resistant to the virus.

A few hundred cases in India and some people are getting alarmed...

There is no cause for any alarm or concern. People are immune and protected.

And we know that the virus is there.

A few hundred cases for a population of 1.4 billion is not a number at all. Do you know India reports many more cases, around 25,000 cases of flu?

The second reason not to get worried is, we know that the viruses follow a seasonal pattern.

The current spike in the cases in India may be because more testing was done when they heard about the cases in Singapore, Hong Kong, etc.

When you do testing, you find the seasonal virus cases.

WHO said the global health risk posed by Omicron JN.1 is very low. Is it because the mutant variety has been there among people for some time?

Yes, the JN.1 variant has been circulating for long. It is not a new variant. That's why there is nothing to be worried about this variant.

I have argued in the book I co-authored Till We Win: India's Fight Against COVID-19 Pandemic that viruses have been there longer than human beings.

Do you know how many viruses are there? If the viruses are 10 to the power of 31, human beings number only 10 to the power of 9. So, viruses outnumber human beings and even bacteria.

I would go on to say, viruses have been there in the planet and we human beings are visitors here. So, the fight between the two will go on.

IMAGE: Dr Chandrakant Lahariya

As a public health expert, what do you tell people now?

COVID-19 is not a reason to worry anymore.

But there are other viruses that cause respiratory illnesses against which people should get vaccinated and protect themselves.

There are flu vaccines that will protect you against the influenza viruses. People should get those vaccines.

I would say, we need to protect ourselves from respiratory illnesses but COVID-19 is not a reason to worry.

The risk or threat that was there from COVID-19 once is over and unlikely to return.

So, there is no need to mask ourselves?

If you have a respiratory illness, you can wear a mask to protect yourself, your family members and also others.

Mask is a good hygiene practice but not specific to COVID-19 anymore.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com