By threatening to punish India with high tariff, Trump is actually planting a tantalising thought in the Indian mind that the Modi government should suitably 'incentivise' him, explains Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Well-known author, fund manager and columnist for the Financial Times Ruchir Sharma wrote this week that the perception that US President Donald Trump's gambit with tariffs would have grave consequences have not really been borne out by economic data.
He says, 'so far, the consequences have been far less disruptive than just about anyone expected.'
'Tariff revenue is rolling in at an annual rate above $300 billion, roughly four times the pace this time last year,' Sharma, the head of Rockefeller Capital Management's international business, pointed out.
The Modi government has been optimistic that India would get away with a tariff between 10 and 15 percent.
Trump's Truth Social post on July 30 announcing punitive tariff of 25 percent on Indian products came as a rude shock.
The government's optimism was pinned on the hope that its 'Chanakyan' diplomacy would mellow Trump.
Delhi is gearing up to generate massive volumes of business for American arms vendors.
Just 24 hours before Trump's announcement, reports appeared that the Indian Air Force has recommended to the government that the US F-35 stealth fighter jets should be our preferred option as an interim platform until India can produce a fifth-generation Multi-Role Combat Aircraft.
The timing of the news report containing such Top Secret information was manifestly orchestrated to bring the seductive proposition to Trump's notice before August 1 in a gentle reminder that it was he who personally offered F-35 stealth fighter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office in February.
Delhi signals that with lightning speed, its ponderous bureaucracy is completing the paper work.
The Indian Defence Research Wing (DRW) website reported (external link), 'The IAF has recommended procuring 60 fifth-generation fighters as an interim measure until ... around 2035. The US-made Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a leading contender due to its combat-proven track record, high production rate (over 1,000 units globally), and advanced weaponry ... The Russian Su-57 E, while offered with technology transfer, has been criticised for its developmental shortcomings and limited induction in the Russian Air Force, making the F-35 the preferred choice, as per sources.'
The DRW praises F-35 as the talisman that 'will transform the IAF into a near-futuristic force by 2035.'
If the Modi government purchases 114 F-35s, we will be making a massive contribution to Trump's America First.
In our naivete, we believe that the F-35 Leak would lock in Trump forever as a friend of India.
But the cost of flying an F-35 fighter aircraft is $35,000 per hour -- Rs 2,800,000 per hour. The F-35 is the most expensive fighter aircraft in the world and the cost of one aircraft is approximately $110 million, or Rs 968 crore (Rs 9.68 billion).
And, of course, this price tag does not include the weapon package plus other repairs and servicing requirements through decades to come.
Unsurprisingly, the F-35 is a hugely controversial topic. The big question is, will Trump allow the IAF in the heat of the battle to deploy F-35s against Pakistan where his family members are reportedly digging a gold mine?
The Congress party pleaded (external link) that the PM should not take a 'unilateral stance' in the matter.
The Congress spokesman asked some searching questions: 'Did the American security agency 'Pentagon's report' itself admit that the F-35 fighter plane does not meet its operational requirements? Has the report of American security agency Pentagon admitted that F-35 has 65 operational flaws? Did Modiji study this Pentagon report and got the Indian Air Force to study this report?'
Indeed, a GoI decision will mean committing to the F-35 as the IAF's primary frontline fighter for decades to come.
Conversely, it also means phasing out the Russian-made combat aircraft from Indian inventory in a conceivable future.
Trump is a clever businessman. He has thrown a red rag at the excitable Indians, which kills three birds in a single shot.
By threatening to punish India with high tariff, Trump is actually planting a tantalising thought in the Indian mind that the Modi government should suitably 'incentivise' him.
Plainly put, he expects Modi to close the F-35 deal irrevocably.
In fact, the commerce ministry's supine reaction (external link) signals that the message has gone home.
Trump was a grandmaster in reality television and is the guru of all gurus in political theatre. What is Trump's real game plan?
Trump has literally made India's arms purchases and oil imports from Russia the central planks of his India policy.
He is confident he'll have his way with Modi government. From the high table, conceivably, he may throw a bone or two for the Indian peasant to chew, but that is for the optics -- and our government will probably hail it as success for Indian diplomacy.
Such a pantomime wouldn't be playing out today in a cynical fashion if only PM Modi had been candid and bold to trash Trump's claim to have collared India and Pakistan from committing harakiri in a nuclear conflagration.
Trump taunted Modi at least 28 times before making his move to bracket his mediation with trade.
The most dangerous part is Trump has linked the India-Russia relationship with his tariff war against India.
The US has tasted blood: India-Russia defence ties are atrophying rapidly.
Trump senses the time has come to go for the final kill.It is a geopolitical necessity for global balance.
In the looming confrontation between the US-led Collective West and Russia, Trump is threatening that if India does not join the western camp, there is going to be a heavy price to pay.
He may even sanction Indian entities and officials. Now, visa denial will be the unkindest cut of all for the Indian elite.
Yesterday, in a second post on Truth Social, Trump all but accused India of being Russia's ally: 'I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India... Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way... '
Trump's spiteful outbursts reveal quite a bit of unspoken truth. He has no respect for India, or the Modi government.
It is doubtful if he'd dare to speak about Indira Gandhi's India with such contempt.
There is something here to introspect seriously. What is this special relationship that our elites get so excited about?
Trump estimates that the Indian elites lack self-respect and grit to stand up to his bullying.
Self-respect, of course, is not a virtue that can be cultivated; it is an innate trait; some are born with it, most do not have it in a feudal society.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served the Indian Foreign Service for 29 years.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
© 2025