The Indian rupee saw a 2-paise gain against the US dollar, settling at 93.33, buoyed by positive domestic equity market trends and renewed optimism surrounding potential US-Iran talks, despite a significant rise in both WPI and CPI inflation.
Key Points
- The rupee strengthened by 2 paise to close at 93.33 against the US dollar, influenced by positive domestic equity markets and prospects of US-Iran talks.
- US President Donald Trump indicated a second round of talks with Iran could occur within two days, boosting market sentiment.
- Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation surged to a 3-year high of 3.88 per cent in March, primarily due to increased fuel, power, and manufactured item costs amidst the West Asia crisis.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation also rose to 3.4 per cent in March, driven by an uptick in certain food items.
- Experts predict the rupee will trade between 93.10 and 93.65, with its direction heavily dependent on geopolitical developments and global oil price movements.
The rupee rose 2 paise to settle at 93.33 against the US dollar on Wednesday, aided by positive sentiments in the domestic equity markets and hopes of resumption of talks between the US and Iran.
US President Donald Trump has said a second round of talks with Iran could be held "over the next two days".
Rupee's Performance and Market Dynamics
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 93.19 and touched the intraday high of 93.13 against the greenback and a low of 93.44. It finally settled at 93.33, up 2 paise from its previous close.
On Monday, the rupee weakened by 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar.
The forex market was closed on Tuesday on account of Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.
Inflationary Pressures and Geopolitical Impact
Government data released on Wednesday showed that the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation rose sharply to an over 3-year high of 3.88 per cent in March, driven by a sharp spike in rates of fuel, power and manufactured items amid the West Asia crisis.
Consumer price index-based retail inflation rose 3.4 per cent in March compared to 3.21 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to an uptick in certain food items, data released earlier this week showed.
Expert Outlook and Global Factors
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said, "The currency continues to remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a key risk factor for global oil supply.
In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 93.10–93.65, with direction dependent on further geopolitical developments and oil price movement".
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was marginally higher by 0.05 per cent at 97.95.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.50 per cent up at $96.21 per barrel in futures trade.
On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share Sensex jumped 1,263.67 points, or 1.64 per cent, to settle at 78,111.24, while the Nifty climbed 388.65 points, or 1.63 per cent, to 24,231.30.
Foreign Institutional Investors were net sellers on Wednesday and offloaded equities worth Rs 666.15 crore, according to exchange data.
Background
The rupee rose 2 paise to settle at 93.33 against the US dollar on Wednesday, aided by positive sentiments in the domestic equity markets and hopes of resumption of talks between the US and Iran.
US President Donald Trump has said a second round of talks with Iran could be held "over the next two days".
