Reliance Industries is set to announce its Q4 FY26 results, with analysts predicting a largely flat performance due to a slump in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and muted retail growth, despite steady gains in its telecommunications arm, Reliance Jio.
Key Points
- Reliance Industries (RIL) is projected to report largely flat performance for Q4 FY26, with revenue estimated between Rs 2.7-2.8 trillion.
- Weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and muted retail growth are expected to offset steady gains in the telecommunications segment.
- Consolidated Ebitda is seen at Rs 44,000-45,000 crore, largely flat year-on-year, while net profit may decline by up to 17 per cent.
- Reliance Jio's Ebitda is projected to rise, supported by subscriber additions and an increase in average revenue per user (Arpu).
- Analysts will monitor the impact of rising crude oil prices on refining margins, Jio's Arpu trajectory, and retail margin expansion.
Reliance Industries (RIL), owned by Mukesh Ambani, is set to announce its fourth-quarter (January-March, Q4) results for 2025-26 (FY26) on Friday and is likely to report a largely flat performance.
Weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and muted retail growth may offset steady gains in the telecommunications segment, analysts said.
At the consolidated level, brokerages estimate revenue in the Rs 2.7-2.8 trillion range, implying growth of up to 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) is seen at Rs 44,000-45,000 crore, largely flat Y-o-Y, while net profit is pegged between Rs 16,200 crore and Rs 18,470 crore, marking a decline of up to 17 per cent Y-o-Y.
Margins are expected to contract, mainly due to pressure in the O2C segment.
Key Monitorables for RIL's Q4 Performance
Analysts flagged key monitorables: the impact of rising crude oil prices on refining margins and petrochemical spreads; Reliance Jio's average revenue per user (Arpu) trajectory and subscriber additions; and retail margin expansion amid ongoing investments.
On the bourses, the RIL stock has declined 16.5 per cent from its 52-week high of Rs 1,611.
So far in 2026, it is down 14.5 per cent, compared with an 8.9 per cent drop in the Sensex.
Brokerage Expectations for RIL's Q4
Nomura expects muted performance in O2C and retail, while Jio remains steady.
It pegs consolidated Ebitda at Rs 44,450 crore, down 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) and up 1 per cent Y-o-Y. O2C Ebitda is estimated at Rs 15,100 crore (down 9 per cent Q-o-Q, flat Y-o-Y), hit by high crude premiums, elevated freight and insurance costs, increased liquefied petroleum gas output, fuel retailing losses, and diversion of K-G gas.
Upstream Ebitda is seen at Rs 4,680 crore, down 4 per cent Q-o-Q due to lower production and higher maintenance costs.
Jio's Ebitda is projected at Rs 18,230 crore (up 3 per cent Q-o-Q, 15 per cent Y-o-Y), supported by subscriber additions of around 8 million, taking the base to 523 million, and Arpu rising to Rs 216 per month from Rs 213 in the third quarter of FY26.
Retail revenue is estimated at Rs 91,050 crore (down 3 per cent Q-o-Q, up 9 per cent Y-o-Y), with Ebitda at Rs 6,830 crore (up 5 per cent Y-o-Y).
Nomura pegs consolidated revenue at Rs 2.84 trillion and net profit at Rs 17,000 crore, down 12 per cent Y-o-Y.
ICICI Securities expects O2C earnings to decline 9 per cent Y-o-Y, while retail may grow 4 per cent Y-o-Y.
The upstream segment could remain weak due to lower production and a higher government share in petroleum profits.
It estimates revenue at Rs 2.84 trillion (up 9 per cent Y-o-Y), Ebitda at Rs 44,050 crore (flat Y-o-Y), and net profit at Rs 16,200 crore (down 17 per cent Y-o-Y).
Prabhudas Lilladher (PL) Capital expects standalone Ebitda to fall to Rs 14,150 crore, hit by higher freight costs amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, elevated gas costs, and weak petrochemical spreads, partly offset by stronger refining cracks.
Retail Ebitda is seen at around Rs 6,870 crore, up about 5.6 per cent Y-o-Y, while Jio's Ebitda may rise 3.3 per cent Q-o-Q, aided by a 1 per cent increase in Arpu to Rs 215.8 and steady subscriber additions.
At the consolidated level, Ebitda is pegged at Rs 44,360 crore (up 1.2 per cent Y-o-Y, down 3.6 per cent Q-o-Q), with margins contracting by 59 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y and around 120 bps Q-o-Q to 16.2 per cent.
Consolidated revenue is estimated at Rs 2.74 trillion (up 4.9 per cent Y-o-Y and 3.5 per cent Q-o-Q), and net profit at Rs 16,980 crore, down 12.5 per cent Y-o-Y.
Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) expects consolidated Ebitda at Rs 45,018.9 crore (up 2.7 per cent Y-o-Y, down 2.2 per cent Q-o-Q), with margins easing to 15.6 per cent.
Segmentwise, O2C Ebitda is likely to remain flat at around Rs 15,000 crore, weighed down by energy market disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict.
Oil and gas Ebitda may decline 9.2 per cent Y-o-Y due to lower KG-D6 volumes, while retail Ebitda could rise to about Rs 7,000 crore on improved traction.
KIE estimates consolidated revenue at Rs 2.89 trillion (up 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y and 9 per cent Q-o-Q) and net profit at Rs 18,468.6 crore (down 4.8 per cent Y-o-Y and 1 per cent Q-o-Q).
© 2026