Tamil Nadu is a state which has, in recent history, swung widely. A state where leaders are habituated to trumpeting 'Naarpathum namathe' (We will win all the 40 constituencies). A state where high voting percentages have always invariably resulted in a sweep for one of the Dravidan parties. A state where even in the age of coalition politics, the electorate has been either 'with us, or with them'.
In such a state, this time around, both fronts are uncharacteristically silent. Even leaders of parties which stand no chance of winning a single seat are playing their cards close their chests. Why is it so?
The main reason is the high voter percentage.
Usually, a high voter percentage is a clear sign of anti-incumbency.
Going by that logic, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam should be at a disadvantage. But there is another angle here. This time is unique in that it could also be due to the fact that the DMK loosened its purse strings at the last moment. "Word is that hundreds of crores were spent in touch-and-go constituencies," a veteran watcher of Dravidan politics said.
But this time around, there is a third factor. The Vijayakanth factor.
After all, these days, if you want to understand Tamil politics, you've got to understand Vijayakanth. "If all was fair, a high voter percentage can be directly related to the first time voter syndrome and those who were disillusioned with the two mainstream parties," said B Aravind Kumar, veteran political journalist. "In all possibilities, the high voter turnout could be because people wanted a change and have voted for him."
People in the know say that he may end up with as much as 14 per cent of the vote share. Assuming this is exaggerated, even if he gets 8 per cent, he will play the spoiler," he said.
So, who will a Vijayakanth wave favour. "Definitely, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will suffer."
Because, whatever vote Vijayakanth is going to secure is the anti-DMK vote. So, if we see a close fight, it will because of him and his party will be the one that will decide the the winner in most constituencies," he said.
Another reason for the unusual and stoic silence is the regular intelligence reports and the exit polls conducted by media outlets. While everyone was sure of an AIADMK sweep two days ago, exit polls and even police reports have indicated that the DMK's position is not all that bad.
The exits polls have predicted an evenly matched result, the police surveys also have said that the DMK will get at least 20 seats. "Though it is common for establishment surveys to favour the ruling party, this time, it looks like the DMK might retain 20-odd seats," a Tamil Nadu police source said.
So, high voter turnout and Vijayakanth are the factors that have kept everyone guessing in a state where the trend has never been tough to forecast.
"It is all mere speculation. If you want to take a balanced view in this frenzy, assume both sides will win 20 each. What happens then will be interesting," said another veteran political observer.
What will happen if that indeed is the case? If both the AIADMK and DMK led fronts get 20 each?
"The AIADMK will go to the NDA and the DMK will move towards the UPA irrespective of who is forming the government. That is the natural course of action. But the thing is the AIADMK is not really averse to aligning with the Congress," Kumar said.
But wouldn't that be embarrassing considering party chief J Jayalalithaa's promise to create a separate Eelam state and MDMK as an ally?
"Jayalalithaa's promise for an Eelam state is as absurd as Karunanidhi's fast," Kumar said.
"When I spoke to Ramdoss this morning, he was confident that the AIADMK alliance will get a 40-0 sweep. This was not mere rhetoric. He seriously believes that. That has been the standout point of this election. An all or nothing state' has everyone -- even veteran politicians -- guessing," he said.
And it so happens that it comes at a time when the state is, in the television anchors' newfound vocabulary, the 'game changer'.
