Having control over both digital media and NGOs, it was easy for the US to topple the government and destabilise Nepal -- to undercut Chinese influence and pressure India, argues Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
Over the past decades, a lot has been in the news about the 'String of Pearls' that China has been weaving around India; a network of commercial and military facilities and relationships in the Indian Ocean Region, which includes the ports Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and Sittwe (Myanmar), along with strong military and diplomatic ties, investments, and strengthening China's influence and presence in the region.
It is said India in response has weaved a 'Necklace of Diamonds' by developing its own port-facilities and military partnerships with countries like Japan, Australia, and the US.
But now a 'String of Flames' is surrounding India in its immediate neighbourhood; regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and now Nepal.
No doubt the Gen Z revolt in Nepal is home grown but banning of social media only catalysed the discontent brewing over the years, as pointed out by retired Major General Binoj Basnyat of the Nepal army (external link); endemic corruption, rot in governance, mass unemployment, inability to forge a cohesive security policy, and political parties focused on immediate elections.
About 900,000 Nepalese move abroad annually and 2,000+ working-age citizens leave Nepal every day.
Having control over both digital media and NGOs, it was easy for the US to topple the government and destabilise Nepal -- to undercut Chinese influence and pressure India.
The mechanics of the CIA's Nepal operation are the same as in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka although damage to public and private property in Nepal is far greater.
Questions have arisen: How did China permit this? The answer to this is that the US is adept at its destructive best but China plays it cool and has the last laugh.
Has Chinese influence decreased, leave aside vanished in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh? Trump is trying his best to draw Pakistan (even Afghanistan) away from China but will unlikely succeed, even as Pakistan plays its double game.
It may take considerable time before Nepal stabilises. Gen Z went hard against politicians, forcing them to take refuge with the army.
There is speculation that calls may soon arise for return of the king's rule and Nepal be declared a Hindu kingdom.
But this must be viewed in the context that not only China would unlikely want this, the US would want an unstable government that can be easily exploited by the CIA, ISI and Western intelligence agencies.
2020 Global Watch cited Nepal as a classic example of how China uses corrupt leaders to make inroads into weaker countries.
India's blockade of Nepal from September 2015 to January 2016 compounded the humanitarian crisis in Nepal, already suffering from the earthquake in April 2015.
It pushed Nepal into China's lap, stoking fierce anti-India sentiments.
In 2016, Nepal and China signed the Transit and Transport Agreement to access China from six checkpoints, with Nepal seeking access to Chinese ports.
In 2017, Nepal signed the framework agreement of China's BRI.
India's decision to stop regular recruitment in the army broke the decades-old bond between the armies of India and Nepal, denying some 1,300 Nepalese Gorkhas service in the Indian Army as regulars.
In the current Gen Z revolt in Nepal, check posts on the India-Nepal border were vandalised and set on fire in Jhapa and Kakarbhitta areas, as reported by locals.
A custom office was also vandalised and trucks from India carrying goods were looted by protestors.
In weaving the String of Flames, the US is well aware that India and Nepal have an open border and that India has not been able to stop the infiltration from Bangladesh into India because of multiple reasons, including intransigence, corruption and internal politics.
These give the CIA an excellent opportunity to increase the pressure and destabilise India.
The CIA-engineered regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal have multiple striking similarities:
1. Corruption is the primary cause for the revolt;
2. Rot in governance;
3. Wealth concentrated in corrupt few or those favoured by ruling politicians;
4. Corrupt not prosecuted and punished by the governments post regime change;
5. Chinese influence continues in these countries;
6. India, which should be on top in the immediate neighbourhood, caught completely off guard.
Finally, India needs some serious introspection, not just cribbing about the move to destabilise India, while rejoicing in the friendship with the US.
Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC is a former Special Forces officer.
He is a third generation army officer and participated in the 1971 India-Pakistan War and in Operation Bluestar.
He commanded a Special Forces Battalion in Sri Lanka, a Brigade on the Siachen Glacier, a Division in Ladakh and a Strike Corps in the South Western Theatre.
These are the general's personal views.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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