'It is like a chicken-and-egg situation.' 'All these product tweaks are innovative, but traders won't move unless there is liquidity.' 'And liquidity cannot be generated until traders move.'
The domestic unit hovered in a range of 66.45 and 66.61 per dollar during the day.
Among Sensex stocks, Tata Motors rose the most by 2.79 per cent. NTPC, Reliance Industries, Infosys, TCS, HDFC twins, Tata Motors, ITC, Power Grid and Bajaj Finserv were among the major gainers. Tata Steel fell the most by 1.22 per cent. L&T, Sun Pharmaceuticals, IndusInd Bank and Ultratech Cement were among the losers.
Indian rupee has declined by about 25 per cent since December 31, 2014, and is nearing 80 against the dollar, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. The value of the rupee declined from 63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a reply quoting RBI data. The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee against the dollar was Rs 78.94 per dollar as of June 30, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply.
Equity benchmarks began the week on a downbeat note on Monday, weighed by heavy selling in market heavyweight Reliance Industries and persisting weakness in global bourses. The rupee plunged to its lifetime low against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows, underscoring the risk-off sentiment prevailing globally as central banks embark on policy tightening to tame soaring inflation. Slipping for the second straight session, the 30-share BSE Sensex shed 364.91 points or 0.67 per cent to close at 54,470.67.
Equity indices nursed losses for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as investors continued to dump IT, banking and FMCG stocks amid a bearish trend in global markets. Unabated foreign fund outflows and the rupee dropping to another record low against the US dollar added to the woes, traders said. Participants were also in wait-and watch mode ahead of release of retail inflation and factory output data.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) outstanding net forward purchases of US dollars fell by more than 50 per cent from the last quarter of FY22 to $30.86 billion in the June quarter (Q1). The net forwards position was at $65.79 billion at the end of the last fiscal year. The purchases fell by $18.33 billion in June as the central bank intervened in both the forwards and the spot market in order to protect the rupee from excessive depreciation in the face of a widening trade deficit.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
Benchmark indices ended on a flat note on Thursday as fag-end selling wiped out intra-day gains amid weak global trends. The BSE benchmark Sensex slipped 8.03 points or 0.02 per cent to settle at 53,018.94. During the day, it had gained 350.57 points or 0.66 per cent to 53,377.54. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty fell 18.85 points or 0.12 per cent to close at 15,780.25.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
Seven consecutive sessions of decline in the equity market has eroded the wealth of investors by a whopping Rs 10.42 lakh crore and the benchmark Sensex has tumbled more than 2,000 points during this period. Concerns over more rate hikes by developed economies, weak global equity markets and fresh foreign fund outflows from the domestic market have dented investor sentiments. On Monday, the BSE Sensex dropped 175.58 points or 0.30 per cent to end at 59,288.35 points, marking a decline for seven straight trading sessions.
In the global market, dollar fell against most of its rivals on Monday.
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
'It was because of the huge selloff in the Indian equities that the rupee fell so sharply against the dollar on Friday.'
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and a Republican presidential aspirant have called his fellow rival Indian-American Vivek Ramaswamy a guy who sounds like ChatGPT and described him as an "amateur" Barack Obama.
Sluggish domestic equities and persistent capital outflows largely pressurised the Indian unit
At interactions last week with senior officials from the Reserve Bank of India, select banks gave feedback on two key bond market concerns, namely, recent volatility in the rupee-dollar exchange rate and heavy losses incurred on floating rate government bonds due to a demand-supply mismatch, sources told Business Standard. The discussions were held ahead of the RBI's next monetary policy statement, scheduled on August 5. Indian banks are large holders of government securities because of a regulatory mandate to set aside a certain percentage of deposits in sovereign bonds.
The benchmark Nifty50 managed to reclaim its 200-day moving average (DMA) on Wednesday but about half of top 500 stocks continue to languish below this key technical indicator. The 200-DMA - nearly a year's average of closing prices - is analysed by traders to understand the market sentiment. A fall below these levels indicates a weak trend.
This is the biggest one-day fall in the rupee since August 3, 2016
Trading in the domestic equity market this week will be influenced by quarterly results from TCS and Infosys, besides inflation and industrial production data as well as global trends, analysts said. Movement of the rupee, which has slumped to record lows against the US dollar, will also be tracked by investors, they added. "This week, participants will be eyeing important macroeconomic data viz IIP, CPI and WPI... Besides, the week also marks the beginning of the earnings season with IT majors like TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech and Wipro announcing their numbers along with two other heavyweights Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank," said Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Performance of the US markets, FIIs' trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on their radar, Mishra added.
The first five months of 2023 have witnessed at least six major events/trends that augur badly for global economic and socio-political prospects, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
With the Big Four information technology services players having disappointed the Street, the focus is on mid-cap IT players who seem to have met expectations, according to analyst reports and management commentary on the demand environment.
Inflation data, both at domestic and global level, interest rate scenario in the US, geopolitical situation and general elections in 2024 are some of the major factors that would influence trading in the equity market this financial year, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity and global trends will also dictate terms in the equity market going ahead. Equity markets across the globe faced major challenges in FY23 due to concerns over high inflation, which resulted in increase in interest rates around the world, lowering investor sentiment, experts added.
There was mild selling of dollars by banks and exporters
Equity indices fell on Thursday, mirroring weak global market trends following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 337.06 points or 0.57 per cent to settle at 59,119.72. During the day, it tanked 624 points or 1.04 per cent to 58,832.78. The NSE Nifty went lower by 88.55 points or 0.50 per cent to end at 17,629.80.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
India's foreign exchange reserves declined $1.15 billion to $571.56 billion for the week ended July 22, according to RBI data. The reserves has been declining amid continuing volatility in the rupee which has also significantly depreciated against the US dollar. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined by $7.54 billion to $572.71 billion.
Extending its losing streak for the fourth straight day, the rupee weakened by five paise to 61.01 against the US dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market on high demand for the American currency from importers.
Equity market will be guided by global trends, macroeconomic data announcement and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of the rupee and Brent crude oil will also remain in focus this week, they added. "The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum.
The rupee recovered by 11 paise to trade at 60.84 against the US dollar in early trade today on selling of the American currency by banks and exporters.
Finding a subsitute for the dollar as well as China being able to grow without the US market will both take time.
Breaking the streak of continuous fall in outstanding amounts, non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits rose for the first time in the financial year to $134.54 billion in October 2022. The figure was $133.67 billion in September. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that NRI deposits were in shrinking mode for the first six months of FY23. They fell to $133.67 billion in September from $139 billion in March.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
The collapse of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the US might create temporary liquidity issues but will not have any significant impact on the Indian crypto market in the long run, officials from several exchanges told Business Standard. All three banks are considered crypto-friendly. SVB offered services such as cryptocurrency custody and lending.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty on Friday spurted by nearly 2 per cent, propelled by heavy buying in IT, metal and financial stocks amid a rally in global markets after lower-than-expected US inflation data. A strong rupee against the US dollar and unabated foreign capital inflows further bolstered sentiment, traders said. Easing US inflation triggered speculation that the US Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
The rupee had gained 90 paise, or 1.34 per cent.
The Indian rupee on Thursday appreciated by 12 paise to end at 66.71.
The country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $5.01 billion to $588.31 billion in the week ended July 1, according to RBI data released on Friday. In the previous week ended June 24, the reserves had increased by $2.73 billion to $593.32 billion. During the reporting week ended July 1, the fall in the foreign exchange reserves was due to a dip in Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, and also in the gold reserves.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
'India's edtech and start-up story will be in danger.'
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