The highlights of the RBI's fourth monetary policy review of fiscal year 2022-23 announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars. The rupee depreciation has wiped away some of the gains that would have accrued to India from international oil and fuel prices dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels.
The rupee gained 11 paise to 82.68 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday as the American currency retreated from its elevated levels. Forex traders said sustained foreign fund outflows weighed on the local unit and restricted the appreciation bias. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 82.69 against the dollar and marginally rose to 82.68, registering a rise of 11 paise over its previous close amid a positive trend in domestic equities.
Banks and exporters preferred to sell dollars
Rising for the second straight session, equity benchmark Sensex climbed 142 points on Thursday following buying in IT and finance stocks amid a higher opening in European markets. After a see-saw session, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 142.43 points or 0.23 per cent higher at 60,806.22. During the day, the index witnessed a high of 60,863.63 and a low of 60,472.81.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
The number of ultra-high net worth individuals (UHNWIs) in India is expected to rise 58.4 per cent in the next five years from 12,069 in 2022 to 19,119 in 2027, a report by property consultancy Knight Frank said on Wednesday. In its "The Wealth Report 2023", Knight Frank said that the number of Indian UHNWIs, with a net worth of $30 million or above, fell 7.5 per cent in 2022 due to economic slowdown, rate hikes, appreciation of the US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. Globally, the number of UHNWIs fell 3.8 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021.
The rupee slipped 13 paise to 77.67 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by the surge in crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 77.65 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 77.67, registering a fall of 13 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee settled at 77.54 against the US dollar.
IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 4.75 per cent, followed by M&M, L&T, NTPC, ITC, Ultra Cement, Tata Steel, Maruti and SBI. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Sun Pharma were among the losers, shedding up to 2.30 per cent.
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
HCL Tech was the biggest loser on the Sensex chart, shedding 2.79 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, ITC, Wipro, Infosys and M&M. In contrast, Tata Motors, L&T, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank and SBI were among the winners, climbing up to 2.05 per cent.
Investors became richer by over Rs 2.27 lakh crore on Monday as equities rebounded, with the BSE Sensex rallying over 1 per cent amid continuous foreign fund inflows and upbeat global markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 709.96 points or 1.16 per cent to settle at 61,764.25. During the day, it zoomed 799.9 points or 1.31 per cent to 61,854.19. Following the rally, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped by Rs 2,27,794.46 crore to Rs 2,76,06,443.06 crore.
The legal battle between Byju's and lenders in the US on the edtech firm's $1.2-billion term loan B (TLB), along with the company skipping an interest payment of $40 million on the loan, has made the other investor Davidson Kempner Capital Management, "extremely concerned", according to the people familiar with the matter. They said Byju's has closed a Rs 2,000-crore ($250 million) round from the US-based investment firm and it may stop or consider slowing down the flow of various tranches of that capital to the company. It may also decide not to provide any new funding or participate in any such round in the future, the sources said.
HCL Tech led the Sensex gainers' chart, spurting 3.58 per cent, followed by UltraCement, Nestle India, Tata Steel, Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and HDFC twins. In contrast, ITC, Maruti, NTPC, Asian Paints and Sun Pharma were among the main laggards, shedding up to 1.51 per cent.
The domestic equity market on Thursday snapped the five-day losing streak as the benchmark Sensex recouped its lost ground and closed 78 points higher on fag-end value buying in banking, energy and financial stocks. A positive opening in the European market helped the investor sentiments even as clouds hovered over the health of the global banking system amid Credit Suisse woes and bank failures in the US. Halting its five-day losing streak, the 30-share BSE benchmark rose 78.94 points or 0.14 per cent to close at 57,634.84 points, with 17 of its constituents ending in the green.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said about half of the Indian companies that it rates are getting a boost in their core profitability from rupee depreciation. "Much of our rated India corporate portfolio has sizable US-dollar linked revenue and, therefore, is not exposed to rupee depreciation. "This encompasses entities in the IT, metals, and chemicals sectors. About half of the firms we rate are getting an EBITDA boost from currency weakening," the US-based rating agency said in a report.
Hikes benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent Cuts growth projection for this fiscal to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in September Inflation to come down below 6 per cent in March quarter, to average 6.7 per cent this fiscal
IndusInd Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 7.46 per cent, followed by SBI, Tata Motors, M&M, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank and Infosys. In contrast, Tech Mahindra was the only winner.
It said the acceptance of necessity accorded to the procurement by the Defence Acquisition Council noted the estimated cost of $3,072 million as provided by the US government, adding the price will be negotiated once policy approval from Washington is received.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, ITC, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Wipro, Infosys and Maruti were the major gainers. Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined in early trade on Wednesday due to selling in financials, oil and IT stocks amid weak global trends.
Rebalance your portfolio in case it has become overweight on equities vis-a-vis your strategic asset allocation.
The Indian startup ecosystem has lauded the inclusion of startups in the New Delhi Leaders' Declaration for the first time ever in the history of G20. Industry stakeholders say that the move will lead to easier access to capital, reduce regulatory hurdles, and may revive funding activity. The Declaration, through the Startup20 initiative, recognised startups as "natural engines of growth" and key to socio-economic transformation by driving innovation and creating employment.
Benchmark Sensex dropped 334 points on Monday due to intense selling pressure in metal and power stocks as FII outflows dampened investor sentiment. Besides, a sharp decline in the rupee against the US dollar also put pressure on domestic equities, traders said. After losing nearly 500 points, the 30-share BSE index recovered some lost ground to settle at 334.98 points or 0.55 per cent lower at 60,506.90. During the session, the index touched its intra-day low of 60,345.61.
The rupee on Friday slipped 1 paisa to close at its all-time low of 78.33 (provisional) against the US dollar. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and finally settled at its all-time low of 78.33, down 1 paisa from its previous close. During the day, the local unit witnessed an intra-day high of 78.19 and a low of 78.35 against the American currency.
Hoard cash. There will be plenty of time and opportunity at far lower levels, warns Sonali Ranade in her weekly Market Notes
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a dollar-rupee two-year sell-buy swap auction for $5 billion on March 8, which will suck out rupee liquidity from the system. The swap will be in the nature of a simple sell/buy foreign exchange from the RBI side, in which a bank will buy US dollars from the central bank and simultaneously agree to sell the same amount of US dollars at the end of the swap period. "With a view to elongating the maturity profile of its forward book and smoothen the receivables relating to forward assets, it has been decided to undertake sell/buy swap auction of $5 billion on March 8, 2022," the RBI said in a statement. The auction cut-off will be based on the premium amount in paisa terms up to two decimal points.
The rupee depreciated 11 paise to a record low of 78.96 against the US dollar in opening trade on Wednesday, weighed down by persistent foreign capital outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 78.86 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 78.96 -- its all-time low level, registering a fall of 11 paise from the last close. On Tuesday, the rupee plunged by 48 paise to close at record low of 78.85 against the US dollar.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
Underlining the contribution of non-resident Indians, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said remittances sent to the country by overseas Indians were about $100 billion for the year 2022, an increase of 12 per cent in one year. Speaking at a session during the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (PBD) convention in Madhya Pradesh's Indore city, she described NRIs as the "real ambassadors of India" and appealed to them to use made in India products and services as far as possible so that the country's individual brand can be promoted across the globe. Sitharaman also said that after the "China plus one" policy, the world is now talking about the "European Union (EU) plus one" policy.
The rupee plunged 61 paise to decline below the 83-mark for the first time against the US dollar on Wednesday amid unabated foreign capital outflows and a strong dollar in the overseas markets.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
Gold burnished its image as the go-to asset class during turbulent times. However, investors seemed to have missed the bus. Net inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) plunged to a four-year low of Rs 653 crore in 2022-23 (FY23), even as gold emerged as the top-performing asset class.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains to close in the red on Wednesday after a selloff in power, metal and consumer durable stocks amid a weak trend in global equities. However, a rally in the rupee against the US dollar and unabated foreign capital inflows helped the indices restrict the losses, traders said. In a largely range-bound session, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 151.60 points or 0.25 per cent lower at 61,033.55.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
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