After navigating the turbulent pandemic waves, the recovering Indian economy is now sailing through unchartered waters of rising coronavirus cases, spiralling commodity prices and spiking inflation though the lighthouse of sustainable growth remains visible. As 2022 begins, a raft of developments, ranging from Budgetary announcements to continuation of stimulus measures to monetary policy, will set the tone for the domestic economy, which is projected to grow more than 9 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2022. The country's continuing massive vaccination drive and 'precaution' doses starting for select categories of people this month will provide a firewall against any steep spike in coronavirus cases amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Low commodity prices and a likely softening of interest rates have set the right business conditions, but the revival of demand - both in domestic and overseas markets - will be the key driver in 2009, experts said.
The registration of residential properties in Mumbai fell 42 per cent in April to 10,136 units as compared with the previous month, as fresh demand was affected due to the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and expiry of the reduced stamp duty period, according to Knight Frank India. The fall would have been steeper as over 90 per cent of the registrations were of the properties on which the stamp duties were already paid by the homebuyers before April 1 in order to avail lower stamp duties. From September 2020 to March 2021, the Maharashtra government reduced the stamp duty by 2-3 per cent to boost housing demand amid the pandemic.
HUL was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting around 3 per cent, followed by Infosys, M&M, ITC, SBI, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, TCS and Bharti Airtel. On the other hand, Titan, PowerGrid and NTPC were among the laggards.
IndusInd Bank was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, cracking around 10 per cent, followed by HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, Axis Bank and UltraTech Cement. On the other hand, TCS, Infosys, ITC and HCL Tech closed with gains. NSE Nifty plunged 313.60 points or 3.43 per cent to 8,823.25.
'India has entered an economic super-cycle driven by a housing cycle turnaround.'
After a stellar run in 2021 that saw the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 clock gains of 20 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, global equity markets, including India, are gearing up to welcome 2022 on a cautious note. For one, new variants of the Covid -19 infection that make current vaccines less effective is one of the key risks worth flagging, analysts said. Inflation was also a risk for this asset class in 2021, although most market participants expect that the current elevated inflation levels will be transitory.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday upped India growth forecast to (-) 10.6 per cent for the current fiscal, from its earlier estimate of (-) 11.5 per cent, saying the latest stimulus prioritises manufacturing and job creation, and focuses on longer-term growth. Last week the government had announced a new fiscal package amounting to Rs 2.7 lakh crore. Moody's said the latest measures aim to increase the competitiveness of India's manufacturing sector and create jobs, while supporting infrastructure investment, credit availability and stressed sectors.
Recovery from the second wave of the pandemic in April-May is expected to be swifter as compared to the first wave in 2020, according to the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) chief executive officers (CEOs) poll of 119 top corporate. During the second wave, the lockdowns were largely designed to limit social gatherings and impact on economic activities was restricted. This helped arrest the impact of the second wave on economic growth, according to a survey conducted by the industry lobby group Confederation of Indian Industries (CII). About 59 per cent of the CEOs polled expect the recovery in sales to be better than in the first wave for their companies, while 46 per cent of them expressed a similar trend for their respective industry sectors.
'The government has said it has kept its powder dry to fight the true battle against the debilitating influence of the pandemic.' 'The release of the shocking economic data this week should act as the fuse for using that powder now.' 'Further delays will make the battle that much harder,' notes Shreekant Sambrani.
The COVID-19 vaccine of Biological-E is currently undergoing phase-3 clinical trial after showing promising results in phase 1 and 2 trials.
India's macroeconomic situation is improving fast and the country's GDP growth will turn positive in the third and fourth quarters of the current financial year, eminent economist Ashima Goyal said on Sunday. Goyal in an interview to PTI said the management of the COVID-19 pandemic and gradual unlocks announced by the government have helped in avoiding multiple COVID-19 peaks. The growth estimates by different agencies are being continuously revised, she said.
'...for at least 6 months and give them peace of mind to get back on their feet.' 'Entrepreneurs are suffocating and not able to run their companies peacefully.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the Indian economy is witnessing a strong recovery after a long and strict lockdown. Addressing a press conference to announce more stimulus measures to boost growth, she said macro-economic indicators are pointing towards recovery. She noted that COVID-19 active cases have declined from over 10 lakh to 4.89 lakh with case fatality rate (CFR) at 1.47 per cent.
'Aggressively stepping up vaccinations will constitute the most enduring stimulus of all in the coming quarters,' observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, Chief India Economist at J P Morgan.
Any market correction, analysts say, would be an attractive entry point for risky assets, which should do well over the medium-to-long term.
The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts. What a year 2020 turned out to be! From witnessing gigantic losses to record-shattering gains, investors went on a roller-coaster ride amid the coronavirus pandemic and massive stimulus measures. Markets closed 2020 with remarkable gains of around 16 per cent, but will the winning ways continue in 2021 as well?
The market price action seems to point in this direction. Let's hope we finally break out. It is about time! asserts Akash Prakash.
'When you need to revive the economy, when you need to revive aggregate demand, you cut taxes.' 'But what's this government doing?' 'It's increasing taxes for the middle class and the vast majority of the poor on fuel, which has a ratchet effect on most other products.'
HCL Tech was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Kotak Bank, Infosys, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Titan, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, SBI and Bajaj Finance were among the main laggards.
Bajaj Finserv was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance and SBI. On the other hand, L&T, HDFC twins, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, M&M and TCS were among the laggards.
The fresh initiative by Commerce Minister Anand Sharma to meet ambassadors of the key members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Geneva, in a bid to revive the deadlocked Doha round of trade negotiations, is well-timed though a positive outcome may be doubtful.
The Indian economy has "some bright spots and a number of very dark stains" and the government should target its spending "carefully" so that there are no huge deficits, noted economist and former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Sunday. Known for his frank views, Rajan also said the government needs to do more to prevent a K-shaped recovery of the economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Generally, a K-shaped recovery will reflect a situation where technology and large capital firms recover at a far faster rate than small businesses and industries that have been significantly impacted by the pandemic.
Tuesday's top gainers included SBI, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, L&T, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki and Kotak Bank.
On the Sensex chart, index heavyweight HDFC rallied over 8 per cent. Other prominent gainers were IndusInd Bank, Mahindra and Mahindra, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank and Ultratech Cement.
'Our discussions with investors and the market's multiples suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning 2019 is being priced in,' says a UBS report.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
Tata Steel was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 2 per cent, followed by Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Bank and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty dropped 151.75 points to 15,727.90.
Bajaj Finance was the top loser in the Sensex pack, tanking over 10 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, Maruti, M&M, Tech Mahindra and ONGC. The gainers included ITC, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Bank and Hero MotoCorp.
At the end of May, out of 26,500 outlets about 60 per cent showrooms and 80 per cent workshops were operational across the country.
"As of this afternoon the President remains fatigued but in good spirits. He is being evaluated by a team of experts, and together we will be making recommendations to the President and First Lady in regards to next best steps," President's physician Sean Conley said in a memo released by the White House.
She said that despite government scheme and initiatives ranging from roads to agriculture, housing, scholarships to electricity benefiting lives of people, a false narrative was being created by the opposition that the government was working for cronies.
'In India, there's currently evidence the Centre has not managed a smooth vaccine rollout.' 'It is now falling back on blaming states, which are facing vaccine shortages,' points out Devangshu Datta.
Top performers were PowerGrid, ONGC, Ultratech Cement, Asian Paint, Kotak Bank and Titan. Nifty settled with a gain of 232.40 points at 14,761.55.
Maruti was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 6 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, PowerGrid and NTPC. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, SBI, ITC and HDFC were the laggards.
'Today when people are fighting to get their salary, you are telling them you will privatise airports!'
'You peel one layer, then another layer, then another, but in the end, you will see that there is no onion inside.' 'This package has been packaged well, but there is nothing much inside the package!'
Congress' senior spokesperson Anand Sharma Sharma said Prime Minister Narendra Modi must 'walk the talk' and announce the measures required by giving money in the hands of the poor and small and medium enterprises to help reboot the economy.
'No one cares about fiscal deficit now. Or for that matter, inflation.' 'The focus is on growth and growth alone.' 'RBI needs to break the risk aversion of banks and infuse adrenaline in their veins', says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Going forward, the February factory output may be impacted as several industries such as automobiles, technology, pharma and fashion have some exposure to imports of raw and intermediate materials from China.
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