India's post 2014 Afghanistan policy appears to be glued to the best-case scenarios of a successful democratic transition. New Delhi hopes that it would remain 'business as usual' and would not necessitate a drastic revisiting of its continuing strategy. This, in short, is a strategy of convenience, says Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
The international community's willingness to build on a 'window of opportunity' in Afghanistan now would be seen as the real test of the commitment of these countries to Afghanistan's future. While military and development assistance are prone to be fickle, willingness to invest is a commitment to the future, says Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
The Taliban once again made their intentions clear on Sunday, with spectacular coordinated attacks which resulted in an 18-hour battle with North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and Afghan forces. With the looming political uncertainty, whispers of a civil war, the insurgents are well positioned to fill in the vacuum.
In case of a premature US exit from Afghanistan, Indian policy makers will be confronted with tough policy choices, writes Dr Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
Obama's visit coincides with a critical stage of America's longest war in Afghanistan. This will occupy much of the behind-the-scenes activity, which essentially is the core of each other's national security concern.
The elections to the Wolesi Jirga (the Lower House of Afghan Parliament) scheduled September 18 has raised crucial questions on the feasibility of holding elections in a warring nation.
Soft power approach combined with low visibility and maximising Afghan participation remains India's strength, and policies to reinforce the Indo-Afghan ties need to be built around this, says Dr Shanthie Mariet D'Souza
It is necessary to make incremental progress, state by state, rather than aiming for an illusory knock-out punch against the Maoists, write Dr Shanthie Mariet D'Souza and Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray.
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, an associate fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, traces the future of India-Afghanistan relations. The October 8 attack on the Indian embassy in Afghanistan, a grim reminder of a similar attack on July 7, 2008, has yet again highlighted the challenges of India's involvement in Afghanistan.
What would serve New Delhi best is a relatively peaceful election that places in office a legitimate government committed to bringing stability and development to conflict ridden Afghanistan.
The key is to act and not wait and watch before the limited window of opportunity shuts, argues Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
'The undiminished threat, therefore, has the potency of sustaining itself in multiple ways in the near and medium term.' 'The state agencies need to utilize innovative methods in countering radicalization and violent extremism to address this growing threat'.
'...but from those who control the narrative.' Powerful nations have mastered this art of narrative building. Those nations who aspire to become global powers must do so, observes Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
As Afghans head to the polling booths to elect a new president, a contested and fraud-marred elections could potentially throw Afghanistan into a renewed cycle of violence and instability, says Dr Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
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