Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
Gold and silver prices plunged up to 9 per cent in futures trade on Sunday, hitting their lower circuit levels ahead of the Union Budget for 2026-27, as investors extended profit booking after the recent record-breaking rally.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a weak trend in global stock markets.
The Nifty IT index hit a more than nine-month low, trading at its weakest level since April 17, 2025.
The bull-market in gold is not yet over and prices can rise to $6,200 an ounce (oz) by mid-2026, up nearly 25 per cent from current levels, according to UBS.
Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, InterGlobe Aviation, ICICI Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the other major gainers. Axis Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Trent and Titan were the laggards.
The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) could face massive financial losses if the ICC's all-powerful governing board decides to penalise them for refusing to play the T20 World Cup match against India on February 15 in Colombo.
Tata Steel, Maruti, Tata Motors, Infosys, Bharti Airtel and Tech Mahindra were also among the laggards. However, Trent, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Reliance Industries were the gainers.
'Given that India underperformed emerging markets by 28 per cent in 2025, the worst performance in over 30 years, the timing of the sharp STT hike could have been better.'
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
'...a mix of asset classes.' 'Include equities for growth (across market caps), debt for stability and liquidity, gold as a hedge against macro and currency risk, and global assets for geographical and economic diversification.'
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
Among the Sensex firms, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC and L&T were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, BEL, Adani Ports, State Bank of India, Trent, HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
A court in Ahmedabad in Gujarat has directed the Congress and four of its leaders to remove a deep fake video of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and industrialist Gautam Adani from social media platforms.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has accused the BJP of rigging the Maharashtra assembly elections and called for a return to ballot paper voting. He also criticized the Modi government for selling off public assets, undermining democratic institutions, and promoting communal polarization. Kharge's remarks come as the Congress prepares for its AICC session in Ahmedabad, where it will present its political and economic views.
'Exiting during corrections tends to lock in losses. Patient investors have benefited from holding through similar drawdowns in past cycles.'
From the Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Tech Mahindra, Power Grid, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries and Maruti were the biggest laggards. IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel and UltraTech Cement were the gainers.
Cricket Australia (CA) announced a net deficit of A$11.3 million ($7.34 million) for the 2024-25 financial year on Thursday, with a steep increase in costs offsetting a jump in revenue from hosting the Border-Gavaskar series against powerhouse India.
Former Indian cricketer Ravichandran Ashwin has expressed his disappointment at the potential exit of all-rounder Ravindra Jadeja from Chennai Super Kings (CSK), saying that the move is "very unlike CSK", a franchise whose "identity was stability and trust in players".
Most pharma shares dropped, dragging the BSE Healthcare index down by 2.14 per cent after Trump's move to impose 100 per cent import tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs from October 1. Wockhardt shares tanked 9.4 per cent.
Stock market investors this week would track the renewed tariff tensions between the US and China, domestic inflation data, besides, quarterly earnings from blue-chips HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries would also drive the momentum in equities, analysts said.
But selectively, with regulatory scrutiny and special approval, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers of Indian equities in September, withdrawing Rs 23,885 crore (around $2.7 billion) and taking year-to-date outflow to Rs 1.58 lakh crore ($17.6 billion).
A batch of 35 Indians deported from the US included people from Kaithal, Karnal, and Kurukshetra districts in Haryana. They recounted their experiences and the financial burdens they faced trying to immigrate to the US.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Motors rose the most by 3.97 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra jumped by 3.96 per cent. Maruti, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were also among the gainers. However, Trent declined 3.81 per cent. Asian Paints, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, L&T, TCS, Power Grid and Sun Pharma were also among the laggards.
Foreign investors have pulled out nearly Rs 18,000 crore from Indian equities so far this month, weighed down by escalating US-India trade tensions, disappointing first-quarter corporate earnings, and a weakening Indian rupee. With this, the total outflow by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in equities has reached Rs 1.13 lakh crore so far in 2025, according to data from the depositories.
Equity benchmarks face a key test as investors weigh consumption revival hopes against tariff pressures and weak earnings. Amidst this, HSBC has outlined tailwinds and risks that could cap gains.
Recent developments - proposed changes to the goods and services tax (GST) rates and S&P Global Ratings' upgrade of India's long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB, with a stable outlook, - may not be enough to bring foreign investors back to Indian markets in a rush, feel analysts.
Stock markets declined for the second day in a row on Friday, with the Sensex tumbling 721 points due to heavy selling in financial, IT and oil & gas shares amid persistent foreign fund outflows.
Investors should be mindful of the high volatility in cryptos: Bitcoin has fallen more than 80 per cent in past corrections.
Seventy years after Pather Panchali released on August 26, 1955, we finally get it. Shuttling between the village of Boral and a studio in Calcutta, caught between worrying about the next purse of funds and wondering which item to mortgage next, Satyajit Ray was explaining Indians to themselves, discovers Sreehari Nair.
SEBI alleges Jane Street placed bets on the stock market falling and then acted in a way to make the market actually fall so it could win its bet.
Tata Steel was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 8.59 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and NTPC, were the major laggards. On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Nestle India, ICICI Bank, ITC, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
However, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ICICI Bank were the gainers.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 31,575 crore from the country's equity markets so far this month, in the wake of turbulence emanating from sweeping tariffs imposed by the US on most nations, including India. This came following a net investment of Rs 30,927 crore in the six trading sessions from March 21 to March 28. This infusion helped reduce the overall outflow for March to Rs 3,973 crore, according to data from the depositories.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
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