Wall Street brokerage Bank of America Securities has pencilled in lower than the consensus retail inflation for the current fiscal year at 5 per cent, but higher than the previous forecast of 4.7 per cent. Stating that the June print will be critical for the future trajectory -- after the extremely high 6.3 per cent print in May, the brokerage in a report on Friday revised upwards its forecast by 30 bps to an yearly average of 5 per cent for the year to March 2022. "Though the June print will be critical for future trajectory, beyond near-term, we find some comfort from our analysis of four key factors that are likely to influence CPI inflation the most.
Benchmark indices ended on a flat note on Friday after facing bouts of volatility during the day amid mixed global market trends. The BSE Sensex inched up 36.74 points or 0.06 per cent to settle at 58,803.33. During the day, it hit a high of 59,108.66 and a low of 58,558.64.
The government is likely to decide within the next two days whether to hike petrol and diesel prices to provide some relief to state-run oil marketing companies, Petroleum Minister Murli Deora indicated on Monday.
Russian traders have started asking for payments in ruble for their exports to India in a move that could derail trade between the two countries which gathered pace after the war in Europe. This is because Indian importers are unable to pay in ruble. The India-Russia trade gathered pace after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February this year. In the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent year on year.
'I don't see any major setback for the Indian markets post the US Fed event.'
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by about 322 points to close above the 60,000 level on Monday tracking gains in banking, IT and energy stocks amid positive global equities. The 30-share barometer closed higher by 321.99 pts or 0.54 per cent at a three-week high of 60,115.13, as 21 of the index constituents closed in the green. After a strong opening, the index touched a day's high of 60,284.55 and a low of 59,912.29.
Wadia Group-owned Go First Airways' (Go First) insolvency plea could trigger a 'momentum rally' in shares of rival airlines, Interglobe Aviation (parent company of IndiGo) and SpiceJet, as they look to gain bankrupt airline's market share, said analysts. On the bourses, shares of InterGlobe Aviation hit a 52-week high of Rs 2,235.95, surging 8 per cent on the BSE in Wednesday's intra-day trade, before settling 4.5 per cent higher at Rs 2,164 apiece. Those of SpiceJet and Jet Airways, meanwhile, rallied up to 6 per cent in the intra-day trade, and ended 1 per cent and 5 per cent higher, respectively, following the development, which was announced post market hours on Tuesday.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
The rupee appreciated 6 paise to 78.27 against the US dollar in opening trade on Monday as heavy buying in domestic equities and weakness in the greenback strengthened investor sentiment. However, elevated crude prices and persistent foreign fund outflows restricted the rupee's gain, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened sharply up at 78.24 against the US dollar, then inched lower to quote 78.27, registering a gain of 6 paise over the last close.
Cooking gas LPG price was on Thursday hiked by Rs 3.50 per cylinder, the second increase in rate this month following the firming of international energy rates. Non-subsidised LPG now costs Rs 1,003 per 14.2-kg cylinder in the national capital, up from Rs 999.50 previously, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. This is the second increase in LPG rate this month and the third in less than two months. The price was hiked by Rs 50 per cylinder on March 22 and again by the same quantum on May 7.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 4.73 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power. The wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation rate was 4.95 per cent in December 2022 and 13.68 per cent in January 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 2.38 per cent in January, from (-) 1.25 per cent in December, 2022.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
The rupee depreciated 31 paise to an all-time low of 80.15 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday tracking the strength of the American currency and firm crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 80.10 against the dollar, then lost ground to quote at 80.15, registering a fall of 31 paise from the last close. On Friday, the rupee closed at 79.84 against the dollar.
As the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, India is running out of options as the relentless surge in international oil prices make it imperative to pass them on to consumers, officials said on Monday. India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas requirement. While the imported crude oil is turned into fuels such as petrol and diesel, gas is used as CNG in automobiles and fuel in factories.
Average price of the Indian basket for international crude rose by 42.4 per cent during 2005-06 as compared to the previous year, leading to a sharp increase in merchandise import payment during the year, says RBI.
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 5 lakh crore in early trade on Thursday as domestic benchmark indices tumbled mirroring weak trends in global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 1,154.78 points to 53,053.75 in early deals tracking weak global markets, persistent foreign fund outflows and a spurt in crude oil prices. The weak broader market trend pulled down the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms by Rs 5,02,731.03 crore to Rs 2,50,74,714.78 crore in early trade.
Petrol price on Tuesday was increased by 15 paise per litre and diesel by 18 paise as State-owned fuel retailers started passing on the increase in international oil prices to consumers after an 18-day hiatus.
India and China on Friday expressed concern over the downside risks to future global expansion mainly due to high energy prices and global imbalances.
The rupee tumbled 19 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 77.93 against the US dollar on Friday as rising crude oil prices and unabated foreign capital outflows soured sentiment. A sell-off in equity markets and stronger greenback overseas also weighed on the domestic unit, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 77.81 and witnessed an intra-day high of 77.79 and a low of 77.93 against the US dollar.
After Rajasthan, petrol price on Thursday crossed the Rs 100 per litre mark in Madhya Pradesh after fuel rates were increased for the tenth day in a row. Petrol price was hiked by 34 paise per litre and diesel by 32 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. While branded or additive-laced petrol, which attracts higher taxes, had crossed the Rs 100-mark in some places in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, regular petrol crossed the physiological mark in Sriganganagar town of Rajasthan on Wednesday, and on Thursday it went past that mark in Madhya Pradesh. In Anuppur of Madhya Pradesh, petrol is priced at Rs 100.25 per litre and diesel at Rs 90.35. Fuel prices differ from state to state depending on the incidence of local taxes such as VAT and freight charges.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
Petrol and diesel prices on Wednesday were hiked by 80 paise a litre each for the second day in a row since the ending of an over four-and-half month hiatus in rate revision. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 97.01 per litre as against Rs 96.21 previously while diesel rate has gone up from Rs 87.47 per litre to Rs 88.27, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers.
The rupee depreciated by 22 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.48 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, tracking a strong greenback overseas and subdued domestic equities. However, receding crude oil prices in the international market restricted the rupee's loss, forex traders said. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.30 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.24 and a low of 79.49.
Equity benchmark BSE Sensex closed at an all-time high of 62,272.68 on Thursday, tracking a firm trend in global markets after the US Fed minutes indicated a slower pace of rate increase that bolstered investors' sentiment. Extending its rally to the third straight day, the 30-share BSE benchmark rallied 762.10 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 62,272.68, its record closing peak. During the day, it jumped 901.75 points or 1.46 per cent to its lifetime high of 62,412.33.he broader NSE Nifty gained 216.85 points or 1.19 per cent to end at 18,484.10.
Elections may be a few months away, but the government may get into election mode much earlier than that, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
Petrol price on Monday was hiked by 30 paise a litre and diesel by 35 paise, taking the total increase in rates in the last one week to Rs 4-4.10 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 99.41 per litre as against Rs 99.11 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 90.42 per litre to Rs 90.77, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Wednesday, taking the total increase in rates in 16 days to Rs 10 per litre.
'Banks will continue to increase FD rates to attract more deposits and meet the increasing demand for credit.'
Equity indices failed to hold on to their gains in see-saw trade on Tuesday, ending in the red for the third straight session despite a tentative recovery in global equities. The rupee too bounced back from historic lows, but the overall sentiment remained risk-averse amid concerns over economic recovery in a high interest rate scenario. The 30-share BSE Sensex had a choppy start but gained momentum in mid-session trade. However, it succumbed to selling pressure towards the fag end to close 105.82 points or 0.19 per cent lower at 54,364.85. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty declined 61.80 points or 0.38 per cent to finish at 16,240.05.
Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Equity benchmarks ended modestly higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate in an effort to cool stubbornly high inflation and defend the rupee. Continuous foreign fund inflows into the capital markets and softening crude oil prices also helped the bourses regain momentum, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 89.13 points or 0.15 per cent higher at 58,387.93 after facing volatility during the fag-end of trade. During the day, it climbed 350.39 points or 0.60 per cent to 58,649.19. The broader NSE Nifty went up by 15.50 points or 0.09 per cent to finish at 17,397.50.
The windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production and fuel exports will generate close to $12 billion (Rs 94,800 crore) for the government in the remainder of the current fiscal while trimming profits of firms such as Reliance Industries Ltd and ONGC, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. On July 1, the government imposed windfall gain taxes on the export of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and on the domestic production of crude oil. It has also mandated exporters to meet the requirements of the domestic market first.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
Since jobs will remain scarce for the foreseeable future, an unemployment allowance should be the next big social-security initiative, suggests T N Ninan.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
The money sent home by Indians from West Asian countries took a beating in 2020-21 due to the pandemic. On the other hand, overseas Indians in advanced nations - the United States, United Kingdom and Singapore - emerged as important sources of remittance, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) survey. Indians working in informal sectors in West Asia seem to have been impacted the most due to the lockdowns and subdued crude oil prices as well as slower pace of migration in recent years.
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