After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Benchmark indices bounced back after falling in early trade on Thursday and logged the fifth day of gain amid a decline in crude oil prices and foreign funds inflow. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 284.42 points or 0.51 per cent to settle at 55,681.95. During the day, it jumped 340.96 points or 0.61 per cent to 55,738.49. The broader NSE Nifty went higher by 84.40 points or 0.51 per cent to 16,605.25.
Petrol price on Sunday was hiked by 50 paise a litre and diesel by 55 paise, taking the total increase in rates since resumption of daily price revision less than a week back to Rs 3.70-3.75 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 99.11 per litre as against Rs 98.61 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.87 per litre to Rs 90.42, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
The government had last week hiked diesel prices by Rs 5.63 a litre and capped the number of subsidised LPG cylinders to six per family a year.
Global oil prices have slumped and India has access to larger amounts of discounted Russian crude oil, yet refiners are not passing on their savings to consumers
Amid fast-depleting forex reserves, the Finance Ministry on Wednesday signalled that it was not in favour of selling the dollar to defend any particular level of the rupee. "Let it (rupee) reach whatever levels it has to reach. We can't fritter away reserves on defending some artificial, imaginary rate of exchange," a senior finance ministry official told Business Standard. Forex reserves declined to a near two-year low of $545.65 billion as on September 16, down $85.88 billion from the level that existed on February 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine.
India will join hands with Paris-based International Energy Agency to counter artificial price volatility in the international oil market and create buffers for supply disruptions.
India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said India has ramped up the import of crude oil from Russia at discounted prices amid sanctions on Moscow as part of the country's inflation management. "In a situation where global prices were going beyond anyone's affordability, at that stage to take a very strong political decision, I respect the prime minister for his courage on this to get it from Russia because they are ready to give it to you at discount. And how speedily did we manage to do it," she said. India ramped up its import from Russia from about 2 per cent of the total shipment of petroleum products to 12-13 per cent in a couple of months as part of inflation management, she said at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier.
The National Stock Exchange on Monday said broadcast has resumed normally in Nifty and Bank Nifty indices after the prices had stopped updating in the two indices in the early morning trade.
A higher government borrowing will 'crowd-out' the private borrowing and push interest rates higher.
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on Monday said the central bank will have to raise interest rates to tame inflation and the hikes need not be considered by politicians and bureaucrats as some "anti-national" activity. Known for his frank views, Rajan also said it was important to remember that the "war against inflation" is never over. "Inflation is up in India. At some point, the RBI will have to raise rates, like the rest of the world is doing," he said in a LinkedIn post.
The price of oil fell in markets around the world on Thursday, from New York to London and Tokyo, as the long-awaited US-led war against Iraq began .
Notwithstanding the windfall tax placing a cap on profits, oil and gas producers like Oil India (OIL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) have done well in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of 2022-23 (FY23). ONGC faces the drag of poor results from its subsidiary Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and in comparative terms, OIL is better off. Standalone net sales in Q3FY23 stood at Rs 5,900 crore - up 57 per cent year-on-year (YoY), up 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
'Calendar year 2023 is going to be big as pessimism takes a back seat.'
Industry experts, analysts say the proposal is 'impractical'. The country's oil refining companies are hopeful that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will implement a price band for crude oil which they say will bring more certainty to their operations.
There is a symbiotic link between the US, the US dollar and the oil prices. And unless this truth is understood and the link broken, oil prices cannot be controlled.
Party chief Sonia Gandhi has convened the meeting at a time when rising inflation and record international prices of crude oil have created serious concerns before the Congress as also the coalition government
Privatisation of BPCL, which was dubbed India's biggest ever, has been stalled with just one bidder left in the fray after two others walked out over issues such as lack of clarity in fuel pricing, a top source said. The government had planned to sell its entire 52.98 per cent stake in Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and invited Expression of Interest from bidders in March 2020. At least three bids came in by November 2020 but only one remains now after the others withdrew from the race.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a five-month low of 13.93 per cent in July on easing prices of food articles and manufactured products. The WPI-based inflation softened for the second consecutive month in July, raising hopes of further decline in wholesale prices in the months to come. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation, after scaling a record high of 15.88 per cent in May, declined to 15.18 per cent in June. It was 13.43 per cent in February. It was 11.57 per cent in July last year.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
Remember that oil prices do not knock through into economies straight away, the impact is delayed, maybe as much as 18 months in some cases.
In talking about the market in crude oil we often looks for items, events, and structures that repeat themselves. We pin some kind of faith on them because we are unable to see the future with any real clarity. For regular readers of this column, you will realise that this is the start of an explanation as to why we predicted crude oil would be $66.60 at Christmas.
The excise duty cut will translate into a reduction of Rs 9.5 a litre on petrol and Rs 7 a litre in diesel after taking into account its impact on other levies.
Markets continued to fall on Monday, with the Sensex declining 94 points as investors remained cautious amid unabated selling by foreign funds and elevated crude oil prices ahead of the RBI's policy decision later this week. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 93.91 points or 0.17 per cent to end at 55,675.32. During the day, it tanked 473.49 points or 0.84 per cent to 55,295.74.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
During a meeting with Putin in Samarkand, Modi had told the Russian leader that "today's era is not of war".
The Sensex finished above the psychologically key 60,000-mark while the Nifty surged past the 18,000-level on Monday on across-the-board buying amid a mixed trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and concerns over the US Federal Reserve hiking rates later this week failed to quell investors' appetite for stocks, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 786.74 points or 1.31 per cent to settle at 60,746.59.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the new tax regime will benefit the middle class as it will leave more money in their hands. Talking to reporters after the customary post-Budget address to the central board of the RBI, she said it is not necessary to induce individuals to invest through government schemes but give them an opportunity to make a personal decision regarding investments. "...the way we allowed for standard deduction and also the rates which have been fixed, tax rates which have been fixed for different slabs, it has actually left more money in the hands of the people, the taxpayer, the household," she said.
Oil pricing freedom as an idea can succeed only if the ownership of the key oil refiners (read the public sector oil companies) ceases to be government-dominated.
To highlight alleged misgovernance by the present regime, its first nationwide campaign ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections.
Trading in the domestic stock market would be influenced by trends in the global equities, macroeconomic data and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Markets may face volatile trends on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.
Acceleration in demand, together with marginal price hikes of about 2-3 per cent by cement companies in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of 2022-23, may not be enough to cushion the impact of high input costs on the bottom line, reveal Bloomberg consensus estimates for the quarter. Year-on-year (YoY) net sales growth in Q3 will come in at nearly 7 per cent, shows Bloomberg data, while bottom-line growth will show a sharp decline of 25 per cent from a year ago. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) will likely decline by nearly 5 per cent versus a year ago, shows data.
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