Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
The overarching talking point will be the reluctance on the part of private banks to loosen their purse strings and increase lending substantially, even as the central bank believes there is adequate liquidity within the system.
The RBI on Thursday filed an application for initiation of Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) against debt-ridden Reliance Capital at the Mumbai bench of the National Company Law Tribunal. The Reserve Bank had on November 29 superseded the board of Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance Capital Ltd (RCL) in view of payment defaults and serious governance issues. The central bank had also appointed Nageswar Rao Y (former executive director, Bank of Maharashtra) as the administrator of the company.
The RBI said the board has been superseded "in view of the defaults by RCL in meeting the various payment obligations to its creditors and serious governance concerns which the Board has not been able to address effectively". It has also appointed Nageswar Rao Y (ex-executive director, Bank of Maharashtra) as the administrator of the NBFC.
The Income-tax department has conducted searches at multiple premises of Chinese telecom company Huawei in the country as part of a tax evasion investigation, official sources said on Wednesday. The raids were launched at the company's premises in Delhi, Gurugram (Haryana) and Bengaluru in Karnataka on Tuesday. Sources said the officials looked at financial documents, account books and company records as part of a tax evasion investigation against the company, its Indian businesses and overseas transactions.
YES Bank, Bank of Baroda, SBI, IndusInd Bank, and RBL Bank are amongst the banks, Jefferies says, are most prune to "high risk" emanating from ADAG, Cox & Kings, CG Power, DHFL and Essar Shipping.
The rupee breached the 80-mark against the dollar on Tuesday. The steady depreciation in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is likely to prove expensive for corporate India. The listed companies' revenue expenses in foreign currency or imports exceed their export revenues or revenue earnings in forex. In their latest financial year, BSE500 companies, excluding banks and non-banking finance companies and insurance (BFSI), reported combined forex expenses of Rs 12.31 trillion against forex earnings of around Rs 10 trillion.
NBFCs with a proven track record, supported by the brand values of reputed corporate, can play a key role in bringing the benefits of banking and economy to the underserved and newer segments of India.
The Financial Stability and Development Council meeting on Tuesday started with an air of tension in the room. An official present described the participants' body language as "tetchy". However, once presentations and discussions begun, the mood considerably eased.
The bi-annual financial stability report noted that failure of an NBFC with the maximum capacity to cause solvency losses to the banking system will lead to a loss of 2.5 per cent of the total tier-I capital of the banking system.
NBFCs are facing the heat of a crisis at IL&FS, which defaulted on repayment of its commercial paper dues, leading to a contagion effect in the sector.
The Reserve Bank on Monday superseded the boards of Srei Infrastructure Finance as well as Srei Equipment Finance, citing concerns over governance and payment defaults, and decided to refer the two NBFCs for resolution under the insolvency law. This is only the second time in as many years that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is referring entities for the resolution process under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) after taking first ever such step in the case of DHFL back in 2019. Superseding the boards of the crisis-hit Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited (SIFL) and Srei Equipment Finance Limited (SEFL), the RBI has appointed Rajneesh Sharma, former Chief General Manager of Bank of Baroda as the administrator to manage the affairs of the two companies.
Auto-debit payment bounces have gone up for the second consecutive month in May, emphasising the stress building up due to a halt in economic activities as authorities lock down various parts of the country to stop the spread of the virus in the second wave. According to the National Automated Clearing House (NACH) data, in May, of the 85.7 million transactions initiated, 35.91 per cent, or 30.8 million transactions, failed.
'The real estate sector has been badly bruised because it has become too reliant on funding from NBFCs, including housing finance companies. 'When the NBFC industry was rocked late last year by a large default, the real estate sector was hit hard. 'An intricate web of links between rural incomes, construction activity and shadow banks are fuelling the economic slowdown', says Pranjul Bhandari.
Institutional investments in real estate may fall 20 per cent to $4 billion during this calendar year because of a higher inflow of funds in 2020, according to property consultant JLL India. During the January-September period, the institutional investment rose to $2,977 million from $1,534 million in the year-ago period. "Unless some large portfolio deals are not inked at the end of the year, annual investments are expected to be in the $3.8-4 billion range in 2021," JLL said in a statement. Institutional investments managed to cross the $5 billion mark in 2020 due to large portfolio deals worth $3.2 billion during the last quarter of the year.
Prices of food items like cereals, pulses, and edible oils rose or remained steady in May, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report said, indicating there could be another higher inflation print. However, it observed that the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) surprise move to increase interest rates bodes well for its credibility. The RBI's monthly State of the Economy report, released on Tuesday, citing high frequency food price data from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs for the period May 1-12, said the increase in the prices of cereals was primarily because of the surge in wheat prices.
'I suggest a cut in the GST rates and an infusion of Rs 1.2 trillion into the economy in six months.'
Permitting realty firms to tap ECBs, relaxing borrowing norms for non-banking finance companies, increasing the ECB limit 50 per cent to $750 million under the automatic route (that is, without central bank permission) and raising the price ceiling at which overseas loans can be raised are among proposals the committee is considering. For realty, the committee may relax norms only for integrated township projects, said a top finance ministry official.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday expressed scepticism over allowing corporate ownership in banks given India's weak corporate governance amid large corporate defaults over the past few years. It also said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will face challenges in supervising non-financial sector entities at a time when the health of financial sector is weak. Last week, a RBI panel had proposed that large corporate may be permitted to promote banks, as well as raising the cap on promoters' stake in private sector banks to 26 per cent, from15 per cent at present.
The interest rate offered by PSBs like SBI, BoB and BoI hover around 8.9 per cent-10.50 per cent. For private banks, the range is between 10.49 per cent and 12 per cent.
You would find NBFCs more willing to lend even if you have a poor credit score, says Adhil Shetty
HDFC Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack followed by IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC, Maruti and Bajaj Finance. NSE Nifty fell 171 points to 15,752.40.
Gross bad loans of banks may rise from 6.9 per cent in September 2021 to 8.1-9.5 per cent by September 2022 if the Omicron variant strikes the economy hard, as per the financial stability report of the Reserve Bank released on Wednesday. The report also said that the rising stress level in the retail loan portfolio of banks -- the mainstay of bank credit for many years now -- was led by home loans, which grew in double-digits so far this fiscal. While asset quality improved, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) and net NPA (NNPA) ratios declining to 6.9 and 2.3 per cent, respectively, in September 2021, the slippage ratio inched up during the same period as private sector banks showed a higher rate of deterioration in asset quality, as per the report.
The revised estimated expenditure for FY20 has been pegged at Rs 26.99 lakh crore and receipts at Rs 19.32 lakh crore, she said.
'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
Fintechs need to behave with responsibility and transparency. A lot of mis-selling has been happening. Other issues have been plaguing the fledgling industry -- high interest rates, even higher processing fees, harsh collection process and, most critically, data leakage leading to rampant frauds, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Lenders can now initiate recovery proceedings since the SC has lifted the standstill on asset classification, which protected stressed accounts from slipping into NPAs.
'The people let off by the NBFCs have little bargaining power and willingly settle for a 20% to 25% cut in their existing salaries when hunting for new jobs.'
Experts say a combination of improving asset quality and NBFCs' weak balance-sheets bodes well for both corporate and retail banks.
While the overall loan disbursements stood strong at 15 per cent YoY in Q2, pockets such as vehicle finance, loans to NBFCs, and business banking showed some weakness. A continued fall in these numbers may make it tough for AU SFB to defend its valuations under the current circumstances.
'This is the first time we will see how SIP investors react to market correction.'
Nomura analysts said the Reserve Bank of India and the government would need to segregate the potential solvency issue at DHFL from liquidity issues at other larger wholesale NBFCs and HFCs.
Only when we are part of the same family, which will happen down the line, then, of course, we will give them (PMC depositors) all the assurance and the comfort.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will on Friday launch two schemes of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that may go a long way in changing how the household sector invests, and complains if anything goes wrong with their savings. These schemes - retail direct and an integrated ombudsman - will be launched by the Prime Minister virtually, in the presence of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. With the introduction of retail direct, a common man can directly take a position in government securities (G-Sec), considered to be the safest asset class a sovereign can offer.
If you pledge market-linked instruments and their value plummets, you will have to provide additional collateral, points out Sanjay Kumar Singh.
The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved additional funding of up to Rs 3 lakh crore at a concessional rate of 9.25 per cent through the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for the MSME sector hit hard by the coronavirus crisis. The ECLGS was the second-biggest component of Rs 21 lakh crore comprehensive package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week.
'One of the ways to do that is to ensure that NBFCs have got liquidity.' 'If we don't do that, this mood of gloom will continue.' NBFCs need to be provided with liquidity if they have to start lending.
Stocks such as ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank are among the top banking picks of analysts for 2017. A decline in cost of funds and treasury gains are expected to help stabilise their net interest margins
'Common sense says if one can afford, servicing the loans during this period is a better bet than postponing it by three months,' says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
