Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have indicated that interest rate hikes may be necessary sooner rather than later, as headline inflation is projected to rise from its current benign levels in the coming months, according to the minutes of the August review.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.45 per cent in July, up from 4.38 per cent in June, primarily due to higher food prices, particularly onions and ginger. This marks the second consecutive month the inflation rate has remained above the Reserve Bank's median target.
Gold and silver prices are expected to continue their upward trend next week, driven by anticipation of key US inflation data and Federal Reserve signals, though profit-booking may occur at higher levels.
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation marginally eased to 9.78 per cent in July 2026, down from 9.87 per cent in June, primarily due to a cooling in the prices of fuel, power, and food items, marking the first month-on-month drop under the new 2022-23 base year.
A new report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) indicates that inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy have become more significant drivers of gold prices than traditional geopolitical conflicts, with markets increasingly focusing on these economic factors.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
Analysts predict that crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and upcoming inflation data will be the primary drivers of the Indian stock market this week, alongside foreign investor activity and domestic quarterly earnings.
"Our endeavour is to bring headline inflation in line with the target over the medium term," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, addressing concerns about the central bank's policy stance and economic outlook.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased to 9.87 per cent in June, up from 9.68 per cent in May, primarily due to significant price increases in non-food and food products, with food inflation alone rising to 5.49 per cent.
India's finance ministry anticipates inflation will remain relatively contained in the coming months, supported by a correction in crude oil prices and softening input costs following the cessation of the West Asia conflict, despite earlier spikes in wholesale and retail inflation.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
State Bank of India's latest report highlights a 'chalk and cheese' divide in the Reserve Bank of India's recent policy communications, with the Monetary Policy Committee minutes showing a hawkish tone while the Governor's statements are more data-dependent, leading to market uncertainty regarding future interest rate hikes.
Rising income feels like success but unchecked lifestyle inflation traps urban professionals into financing a more expensive version of living paycheck-to-paycheck -- buying material upgrades instead of true future financial freedom.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened higher, driven by a significant drop in crude oil prices and a positive trend in global equities, with foreign fund inflows further bolstering domestic markets.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) reported Q1FY27 results showing significant margin pressures at both Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) and its domestic operations, despite strong volume growth in the India business. Analysts expect these margin headwinds to persist, potentially offsetting gains from increased sales and new launches.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation surged to 9.68 per cent in May, up from 8.26 per cent in April, primarily due to significant increases in the prices of fuel and power, manufactured goods, and food items.
India Inc's first-quarter earnings season was significantly impacted by the West Asia conflict, leading to rising costs, calibrated price increases, and margin pressures across various sectors including FMCG, automotive, steel, and cement. Companies are implementing price hikes to protect profitability, with many anticipating further escalations if input costs remain elevated.
Voltas has announced a joint venture with Atomberg Innovation to manufacture high-efficiency room air conditioner (RAC) compressors, aiming to strengthen localisation and supply-chain resilience. Despite significant volume growth in RACs, the company's margins remain a key concern for analysts.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, traded marginally higher in early deals despite cautious global cues stemming from elevated crude oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties and a sharp fall in US markets. Track Sensex, Nifty on August 21, 2026.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed flat on Friday, with elevated crude oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties and a rebound in US Treasury yields making investors cautious and preventing a decisive market rally.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower for multiple consecutive days, with the Nifty extending its losses to a seventh day, primarily due to elevated crude oil prices following the expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire without a diplomatic resolution.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower, with the Sensex dropping 388 points and Nifty declining 112 points, as a sharp rally in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, dampened investor sentiment and reignited inflation fears.
Gold and silver prices are anticipated to maintain a positive trajectory in the coming week, with market volatility expected to remain high due to ongoing developments in West Asia and upcoming global economic data, particularly the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes.
Indian benchmark indices closed marginally higher, with the Sensex gaining over 43 points and the Nifty remaining flat, as a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties tempered risk appetite.
The Indian government has approved the introduction of one billion polymer banknotes in Rs 10 and Rs 20 denominations for field trials, aiming to enhance durability. This move comes as the Finance Minister also addressed Parliament on declining retail inflation, GST reforms, and other fiscal measures taken to support the economy and household consumption.
Gold futures saw a significant rise for the second consecutive day, driven by strong overseas market rallies, increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties, and a weaker US dollar. This surge coincided with the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its repo rate, reflecting a focus on growth amidst global inflation concerns and easing oil prices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) net bought $561 million in June, marking its first net purchase since February, following three consecutive months of net sales. This move coincided with a series of government and RBI measures to attract foreign capital, leading to a 0.36 per cent appreciation of the rupee against the dollar.
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
Analysts predict that inflation data, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and crude oil price trends will be the primary factors influencing the movement of Indian stock markets. Geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran deal, and foreign investor activity will also play a crucial role.
Analysts predict that crude oil prices and the ongoing US-Iran conflict will be the primary drivers of stock market movements, with investors also closely watching the Jackson Hole symposium for cues on interest rates.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced plans to launch long-lasting polymer currency notes by the next financial year. He also discussed the central bank's data-dependent approach to interest rates, its focus on aligning inflation with the 4 per cent target, and the orderly trajectory of the rupee amidst geopolitical tensions.
Indian passenger vehicle manufacturers are significantly increasing production and stocking dealerships in anticipation of strong festival season demand, with new launches planned and supply bottlenecks being addressed. However, the industry faces potential moderation in growth during the second half of FY27 due to a high base from last year's post-GST surge, commodity inflation, and elevated inventory levels.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty saw declines in early trade, primarily due to elevated crude oil prices stemming from the unresolved geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest that while global sentiment improved slightly after a benign US inflation report, the ongoing US-Iran standoff continues to exert pressure on domestic equities. Track Sensex, Nifty on August 13.
Start SIPs early, increase investments steadily, and let compounding beat inflation to secure retirement wealth, says Ramalingam Kalirajan
High memory costs have driven average mobile phone prices up by 15 per cent.
Combine a robust base health plan with a super top-up, critical illness cover and a dedicated medical corpus to protect household finances from soaring treatment costs.
