Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
Facing opposition fire for exit polls allegedly being used for stock market manipulation, Axis My India's chief Pradeep Gupta has said he is open to facing all kinds of investigations and it would help do business in a much better way if the government frames specific regulations for pollsters.
We have millions of newbie investors who are clueless about how to handle sudden and severe adverse market reactions, which arrive from time to time, observes Debashis Basu.
It is welcome that the government tried to make its intentions clear last week - especially as risk concerns return to global markets.
Equity benchmark index Sensex on Wednesday crashed over 900 points to sink below the 73,000 level due to widespread selling pressure amid a sharp fall in smallcap and midcap indices. Besides, deep losses in utility, energy and metal stocks and recent selling by foreign investors added to the gloom, analysts said. Benchmark indices started the session on a positive note, but the selling intensified during afternoon trade, with all sectoral indices ending in the red.
Stock markets would be driven by global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said adding that key equity indices may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. This week markets will have just three trading sessions. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday. "This week will be shorter due to market closure on both Monday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investment in the domestic debt market in October was the third highest during the current calendar year as foreign investors rushed to lock in higher returns amid global uncertainty and geo-political tensions, market participants said. FPI inflows in debt stood at Rs 6, 322 crore in October against Rs 768 crore in September, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). Market participants said that the majority of the inflows were channelled through corporate bonds.
Government-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has seen substantial gains from its investments in Adani group shares, which have experienced a significant recovery over the past year. The value of LIC's stake in Adani group companies surged by 51.6 per cent, or Rs 22,591 crore, reaching Rs 66,388 crore as of Friday's close. This compares to Rs 43,797 crore on May 31 last year, according to stock exchange data.
If Hindenburg or its partner do not join the investigation, then Sebi may pass an ex-parte order against it, which may be enforced as a foreign award in US courts.
The provision provided for tax at a concessional rate.
The Vedanta Group is aiming to invest $20 billion across all its businesses in India over the next four years, its chairman Anil Agarwal said on Wednesday. The group will sell the steel business only at the right price, and is committed to continue running it if it does not get the right price, Agarwal told PTI on the sidelines of a company event. "At the moment, we have a plan to invest $20 billion across sectors in four years time," Agarwal said.
'India's fundamentals are a lot better (than those of other emerging market economies).' 'India will suffer (witness a fall in its stock market) what I call the second order effect.' 'And the second order will happen when these funds (belonging to macro and hedge fund investors and which have leveraged Japanese yen-carry trades), because they lose money elsewhere as lot of their positions were financed by borrowing Japanese yen, will have to book profits in investment destinations where they are making money, including in markets like India.' 'They (these investors) will have to effectively sell in countries like India and which is the consequence (the crash in equity markets) that Indian markets might see.'
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is on a three-day visit to India.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
Trends in the global markets, trading activity of foreign investors and announcement of domestic macroeconomic data are the major factors that would drive investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Benchmark indices had a record-breaking rally in the past week driven by impressive GDP data. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Mahashivratri.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said there is no plan to loosen interest rates as inflation continues to be the top priority for the central bank. Speaking to reporters at the central bank headquarters here, Das clarified that the inclusion of "over tightening" in his statement while announcing the fifth consecutive status quo in rates, should not be construed as anything else. A "loosening" in rates is not on the table, Das added.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
Fundraising via the initial public offering (IPO) route by companies may touch Rs 1 trillion in financial year 2024-25 (FY25), according to a recent note by Pantomath Group - a mid-market investment bank. During the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), 76 companies tapped the markets through mainboard IPOs, Pantomath said, raising nearly Rs 62,862 crore. This is a 21 per cent rise compared to FY23, the note added.
The dealers operating in the space have jumped nearly three times over the past two years.
The funds, some of which have invested in the NSE for almost a decade, want the exchange to list as soon as possible so that they can exit and pay back investors in their funds
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
Led by a $6.5 billion surge in personal net worth on Tuesday, Gautam Adani, chairman of the Adani Group, is back in the top 20 of the world's richest list and is now ranked 19th globally. Adani is also now India's second richest with a net worth of $66.7 billion as of Tuesday, per the Bloomberg Rich List, while Mukesh Ambani, chair of Reliance Industries, is ranked number one in India and number 13 in the world with a net worth of $89.5 billion.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
The Indian Budget 2009-10 presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee earlier this week, has disappointed many Indian American investors as it does not focus adequately on some of the key issues, including disinvestment and infrastructure development, IACC said on Friday.
Frantic dollar demand from corporates along with an aggressive hedging strategy adopted by importers in the wake of the currency volatility predominately took a toll on the domestic unit despite moves by the central bank to stabilise the currency.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, Titan, Reliance Industries, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and ITC were the major gainers.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
Quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will drive stock markets in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. It will be a trading holiday on January 22, with the Maharashtra government announcing a holiday in connection with the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Equity markets would also remain closed on Friday for Republic Day.
HCL Technologies was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 5.58 per cent, followed by Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC and Wipro. In contrast, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Maruti and ITC were among the laggards.
This flight of capital began in early August due to risk-aversion created first by rising geopolitical tensions due to North Korean aggression and second by the US Fed's decision to shrink its balance sheet
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
Many promoters still consider the cash in the company as their money and are averse to sharing this pie with minority investors, points out Akash Prakash.
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