Based on the current momentum, the funds likely to be raised through the RBI's relaxed window would be $3.5 billion-$4 billion.
Despite markets turning volatile, share sale activity at India Inc has surged to its highest level in five months. So far in March, promoters, strategic investors and other large shareholders have been able to offload shares worth more than Rs 33,000 crore-the most since November-defying uncertain market conditions. Both the Sensex and the Nifty are on course to post their fourth straight monthly loss amid headwinds, such as interest rate tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the global banking crisis.
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
ITC, Sun Pharma, Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Wipro, Infosys, HUL, Bharti Airtel and Reliance were among the major losers. Kotak Bank rose the most by 1.59 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. L&T, SBI, TCS and HDFC Bank also closed higher.
Equity indices fell on Thursday, mirroring weak global market trends following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 337.06 points or 0.57 per cent to settle at 59,119.72. During the day, it tanked 624 points or 1.04 per cent to 58,832.78. The NSE Nifty went lower by 88.55 points or 0.50 per cent to end at 17,629.80.
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
From the Sensex pack, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries were among the major laggards. Bucking the trend, auto stocks Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra closed with gains.
Benchmark Sensex trimmed early gains to close marginally higher while Nifty settled flat in choppy trade on Tuesday as gains in auto shares were offset by selling pressure in banking and energy shares. The 30-share BSE barometer closed marginally up by 37.08 points or 0.06 per cent to 60,978.75 with 15 of its stocks ending in green and the rest in red. The index opened higher and gained over 300 points to a high of 61,266.06 in early trade.
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
Gold prices hit record high in the third week of March as fears of bank collapses and high inflation led investors to the traditional safe haven. Gold prices are often inversely correlated to dollar strength because the international price is dollar-denominated. The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) stance indicates that the dollar may appreciate further since it is prepared to keep pushing up policy rates. But demand for gold is also up - the World Gold Council claims central banks are buying in addition to private demand.
The rupee depreciated 31 paise to an all-time low of 80.15 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday tracking the strength of the American currency and firm crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 80.10 against the dollar, then lost ground to quote at 80.15, registering a fall of 31 paise from the last close. On Friday, the rupee closed at 79.84 against the dollar.
The demand for gold is expected to take a hit if the price of the yellow metal - which has been hovering around Rs 60,000, a level never seen before - remains elevated. Due to a sharp increase in price in a very short time and the flow of smuggled gold continuing, gold price in Mumbai is quoted at around Rs 59,000 per 10 gram. Typically, overall demand in the January-March and July-September quarters is moderate-to-dull, which is the case in the ongoing period.
Equity markets will be driven by the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, analysts said. Moreover, equity benchmarks will also continue to be guided by foreign fund movement and trend in Brent crude oil, they added. "The global markets are looking nervous after the US inflation numbers, which have caused the dollar index to hover around 110," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. Now everyone is eyeing the outcome of the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
The filing of offer documents with the capital markets regulator - Securities and Exchange Board of India - has more than halved this financial year (2022-23, or FY23) as the outlook for new share sales has worsened, following correction in the secondary market. So far in FY23, 66 companies filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), as opposed to 144 in the preceding financial year (2021-22, or FY22).
The Sensex and Nifty spiralled lower for the fourth session on the trot on Wednesday as investors remained on edge ahead of US inflation data, which will give clues on the Federal Reserve's policy tightening trajectory. Unabated selling by foreign institutional investors and a jump in crude prices also weighed on sentiment, traders said. Despite a firm start, the 30-share BSE Sensex failed to carry forward the momentum and ended at 54,088.39, lower by 276.46 points or 0.51 per cent. During the day, it tumbled 845.55 points to 53,519.30.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
Benchmark indices fell for the third straight day on Tuesday, with the Sensex falling over 153 points amid largely weak global markets as investors remained cautious ahead of the crucial Federal Reserve meeting outcome. Unabated foreign fund outflows also continued to weigh on the domestic equity markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 153.13 points or 0.29 per cent to settle at 52,693.57.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
A day after the RBI raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points, Kotak Mahindra Bank Managing Director Uday Kotak on Thursday said the central bank may go for one more rate hike to bring inflation below its upper tolerance level of 6 per cent. Yesterday, the RBI indicated that it wants inflation to be within the band first and then move towards the target of 4 per cent, Kotak said at the CII Global Economic Policy Summit 2022. "My sense is that there could be one more rate hike and that may be the time for thinking about a pivot, but we got to watch very closely the data, and maybe around 6.5 per cent as it looks today, subject to what happens to the world, subject to what happens to oil, subject to what happens to many other things," he said.
The collapse of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the US might create temporary liquidity issues but will not have any significant impact on the Indian crypto market in the long run, officials from several exchanges told Business Standard. All three banks are considered crypto-friendly. SVB offered services such as cryptocurrency custody and lending.
Amid fast-depleting forex reserves, the Finance Ministry on Wednesday signalled that it was not in favour of selling the dollar to defend any particular level of the rupee. "Let it (rupee) reach whatever levels it has to reach. We can't fritter away reserves on defending some artificial, imaginary rate of exchange," a senior finance ministry official told Business Standard. Forex reserves declined to a near two-year low of $545.65 billion as on September 16, down $85.88 billion from the level that existed on February 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
Tata Steel was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 2 per cent, followed by Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Bank and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty dropped 151.75 points to 15,727.90.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
Benchmark indices fell on Monday with the BSE Sensex declining 306 points, mainly dragged down by Reliance Industries. Foreign funds outflow also added to the overall bearish trend in equities on Monday. The 30-share BSE benchmark fell 306.01 points or 0.55 per cent to settle at 55,766.22. During the day, it declined 535.15 points or 0.95 per cent to 55,537.08. The broader NSE Nifty dipped 88.45 points or 0.53 per cent to 16,631.
PowerGrid was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Reliance, L&T, UltraTech Cement and Bajaj Finance.
Benchmark Sensex declined 224 points on Wednesday, snapping its four-session winning streak, mainly due to sell-off in IT and pharma counters amid rising concerns over possible aggressive interest rate hikes to tame high inflation. The 30-share index rebounded more than 1,200 points from the early lows before settling at 60,346.97 points, a total loss of 224.11 points or 0.37 per cent compared to Tuesday's closing level. The broader NSE Nifty closed lower 66.30 points or 0.37 per cent at 18,003.75 points.
Equity indices faced a heavy drubbing on Thursday after an initial rally, with Sensex tanking 1,045.60 points amid a largely bearish trend overseas after the US Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points.
'The Fed rate will peak in the range of 5.1-5.3 per cent during the second quarter of CY23 and will most likely stay there for a while before rate cuts start in CY24.'
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
The recent run on the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the subsequent seizure of its assets by the regulators may have sparked a global wave of risk aversion, particularly for start-ups. However, the Indian banking sector is unlikely to be a victim of any contagion effects, said analysts. he bank, which played a big role in financing start-ups and technology players, faced stress after incurring huge losses on its holdings of US bonds, following the most-aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in around four decades.
'The market will focus on the fact that India does have strong earnings growth this year.'
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
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