All parts except Northeast may get below-normal rain; govt reiterates assurance on preparations.
A delay in rains for monsoon-dependent India could pose challenges for the country's next government, possibly pushing up inflation and denting economic growth.
India will be able to manage potential inflationary pressures if forecasts of sub-par monsoon
The monsoon has finally brought back smiles to the faces of people, especially farmers, of India.
The news will augur well for the country as large parts have been witnessing agriculture distress and water levels in reservoirs in west and south India have dipped to low levels.
Gold purchases have risen after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government lifted the restrictions imposed on imports in 2013.
With El Nino emerging, forecasts rainfall at 95% of long-period average.
'It affects our economy, it is very important in many ways.' 'So we have to be the foremost experts in the world on the monsoon.' 'But the best minds in India have not devoted their time to the study of monsoon and they have followed the fashions of the West.'
India staring at first drought in six years.
'There is no mechanism to understand how things would evolve'.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
As the kharif sowing season exceeds two months, no crop has managed to reach the normal area of cultivation (average of the past five years), except for sugarcane, cotton and jute.
India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 5.5 per cent during the current financial year provided there is normal monsoon and stable government at the centre, says a D&B report.
A below-normal monsoon can bring down India's GDP growth by 0.50-0.75 per cent this financial year, forcing the Reserve Bank to delay rate cuts to 2015, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) said.
'We are not saying we are going to face a drought... We are a doing and performing government. A contingency plan is being prepared,' Science Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan tells Rediff.com
G P Sharma, President (Meteorology) of the Skymet Weather said the Long Period Average of the rainfall during June to September will be 103 per cent with an error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent.
According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the Monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase.
The graphic above shows the number of heat wave deaths in India each year since 1967.
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The agency has kept its FY15 growth forecast unchanged at 5.6 per cent.
Prices of perishable items could spike in the near term.
'Already, the temperature has touched 39 degrees in some parts of Gujarat and now we are in the last week of February.' 'We need to activate the heat action plan from March 1.'
Scores of people die every year due to cold waves that sweep across the north Indian plains.
Most climate models indicate that surface air temperature will increase with rise in green house gases over the Indian region, which would be accompanied by an increase in monsoon activity.
"Conditions are favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian sea, remaining parts of Maldives - Comorin area, some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours," said a statement by the Indian Meteorological Department.
'The food security along the coastal region will be severely affected.'
'When you are travelling in Mumbai when the air quality is bad, you feel suffocated.' 'You may feel uncomfortable breathing Delhi air, but the level of discomfort is higher in Mumbai.'
The RBI chief was speaking to researchers at an analyst call.
The arrival of the June-September rains has been delayed.
While good news from several quarters has been trickling in, El Nino might be a dampener, says T N Ninan.
Skymet lowered its full season monsoon forecast to 'below normal' from 'normal', while the IMD is sticking to its earlier forecast that rains in June to September of 2018 would be 'normal' at 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of +/-5 per cent.
Monsoon will be insufficient this year.
'When there is a change in the wind speed or the stress exerted on the surface, it will change the ocean currents.'
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
The benchmark index on Wednesday surged 314.92 points or 1.05 per cent to close at 30,248.17 on widespread buying spurred by forecast of a normal monsoon this year.
He assured fears of food shortages were far-fetched.
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Data spanning the years 1951 to 2014 show that temperature and pressure conditions at specific locations in the Arctic region during the pre-monsoon period correlate with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, points out Charu Bahri.
Gold prices this year are higher than last year, and the goods and services tax is an additional burden for consumers
The southwest monsoon which reached the country on May 30 well within its normal onset date
After tabling the Survey, Jaitley told reporters that fiscal deficit for the current year will be 4.5 per cent which needs to go down further in the next two years.
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