Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Development economist Jean Dreze said the Indian democracy is currently navigating a crisis that is not only limited to the 'recent wave of authoritarianism' but also suppression of opposition voices by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
"I do not think the idea of turning India into a 'Hindu Rashtra' is appropriate," Sen, 90, said.
'India's top companies currently lack the organisational wherewithal to hire and train 2 million interns annually, given their current scale of operations and existing employee base.'
Why did the political system in the country react to these two decisions of the Modi government in a diametrically opposite manner? asks A K Bhattacharya.
To boost domestic manufacturing under the Make in India initiative and reduce dependency on imports, the government is expected to announce in the Budget an increase in the minimum local content requirement for public procurement, with certain sectors being granted exceptions. Currently, firms producing goods, services, or works with at least 50 per cent local content are classified as Class-I local suppliers and are preferred the most in government procurement.
Dr T V Somanathan is the first finance secretary to be appointed Cabinet secretary since 1985. His appointment at this juncture seems to carry much meaning for the forthcoming trajectory of reforms and restructuring of India's steel frame.
With no rate cuts on the table, the other monetary policy alternative could be to reduce the width of the asymmetric policy corridor or increase in reverse repo rate when the pandemic subsides, they opined.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
According to the World Bank, economic growth in middle-income countries, including India, is not accelerating. 'In fact, it is slowing down as incomes increase, with the trend becoming more pronounced each decade.'
There are reports that the government will soon cut income taxes by about Rs 50,000 crore to boost consumption.
Prime Minister Modi, I suggest that, instead, you distribute about one lakh crore rupees per year to the 80 crore poor, which will boost both consumption and economic growth, suggests Kalyan Singhal, McCurdy Professor of Business at the University of Baltimore.
India's services sector growth quickened in June from May's five-month low, amid a stronger rise in new orders and an unprecedented expansion in international sales, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index rose from 60.2 in May to 60.5 in June, pointing to a sharp expansion in output. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023.
Petrol price can go down to Rs 75 a litre across the country if brought under the ambit of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), but there is a lack of political will, which is keeping Indian oil product prices at one of the highest in the world, economists at SBI said on Thursday.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
'It does not understand economics. The entire focus of this government is skewed.'
Nobel laureate Prof Mohammad Yunus, the designated head of Bangladesh's interim government, on Wednesday fervently appealed everybody 'to stay calm' and 'refrain from all kinds of violence' as the country witnessed a major reshuffle in the security establishment after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government.
Chief executive officers (CEOs) across sectors have expressed intentions to expand capacities, expecting the government's target to invest a record Rs 11.11 trillion on infrastructure development will act as a catalyst for a jump in consumer demand. "With the government planning a capex of Rs 11.11 trillion, private sector investment will come in a big way. Companies will be preparing for it right from today," H M Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement, told Business Standard. For the past few years, the investment scene in India has been dominated by government capital expenditures; private investments in the manufacturing sector have remained muted.
Muhammad Yunus urged the people to "exercise patience" before judging his government's role.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
Unincorporated enterprises in the manufacturing sector lost nearly 1.8 million establishments and shed 5.4 million jobs between July 2015-June 2016 and October 2022-September 2023, an analysis of the fact sheet on 'Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE)' and the comparable 73rd round survey in 2015-16 by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed. An estimated 17.82 million unincorporated enterprises operated in the manufacturing sector in October 2022-September 2023, nearly 9.3 per cent down from 19.7 million unincorporated enterprises in July 2015- June 2016.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to 5.2 per cent year-on-year in March due to improvement in the output of crude oil, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Tuesday. In 2023-24, the growth rate in the output of these eight sectors was 7.5 per cent, marginally down from 7.8 per cent recorded in the year-ago period.
Unlike most diets, the economists' regimen is based on more than just counting calories, reducing fat intake or eating specific food combinations, according to Prof Crowson.
The coaching-tuition-profiteering model built on the back of a broken education system is a scandal and an abomination, and must go, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'We should be mindful that the religious minority community in one country is the majority in another (and) so treatment of the minority community in our respective countries will be an important variable in our relationship'
In his letter to the vice-chancellor of JNU, Bhaduri expressed pain at throttling of dissent by the university administration. He alleged a 'deliberate attempt to throttle the free and lively atmosphere of debate and discussion'.
Eminent economist and Nobel laureate Amartya Sen on Monday described the electoral bonds scheme as a scandal and welcomed the Supreme Court's recent judgment annulling it.
'The ceaseless process of privatisation is shrinking the space of reservation.' 'Where will reservation go if you keep privatising?'
Concerned by GDP slowdown and unrealistic tax targets, the economists urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to implement long-term structural steps like land and labour reforms. Warning against any off-Budget financing the economists said the government should prepare a statement of intent for its social, rural and welfare sector expenditure.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
The outward foreign direct investment (FDI) by Indian companies stabilised in 2023-24 (FY24) after witnessing a fall in 2022-23 (FY23). The actual outward FDI inched up slightly to $13.75 billion in FY24 from $13.49 billion in the previous financial year (FY23), according to finance ministry data. This stability came after a sharp fall in outward flows in FY23 from $18.52 billion in 2021-22 (FY22).
An increase in the farmer income support scheme PM Kisan Nidhi, the introduction of a 'robot tax' to fund reskilling of people who lose their jobs to artificial intelligence (AI), and a reduced income-tax (I-T) to bring relief to the middle classes - these are some of the items in the Budget wish list submitted by Sangh Parivar affiliates to Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman. Representatives of the affiliates of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), such as the farmer organisation Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS); trade union Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS); Laghu Udyog Bharati, which works for micro and small industries; and Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), which works on economic and policy issues, met the FM and other officials over the last couple of weeks as part of the pre-Budget consultations.
India's manufacturing sector saw a slower growth rate for the second straight month in May but stayed firmly in expansion mode with global sales increasing to the greatest extent in over 13 years, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.8 in April to 57.5 in May, signalling a slower but substantial improvement in the health of the sector. The index had climbed to a 16-year high of 59.1 in March.
India Inc on Thursday pitched for lowering income tax burden on common man, increase in capital expenditure, and firm steps to contain food inflation in their nearly two-hour long interaction with finance minister Nirmala Shitharaman ahead of the Union Budget. During pre-Budget consultation with Sitharaman, the industry leaders and associations also urged the government to focus more on infrastructure development with a view to maintaining the economic growth momentum. The industry leaders also laid stress on boosting the MSME (micro, small, and medium enterprises) sector, considered a backbone of the Indian economy and main employment generator.
Although the first woman to hold the position of chief economist at IMF, it would be wrong to see her appointment through the lens of gender
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
A host of conspiracy theories followed, involving Indira Gandhi, her younger son Sanjay, his favourite small car project, secret funding of the Bangladesh Mukti Bahini and even the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States.
Whether she will pare the fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP, using the record dividend received from the RBI, or expand flagship government programmes will be keenly watched.
India's manufacturing sector activity moderated in April, but still recorded the second fastest improvement in operating conditions in three-and-a-half years supported by buoyant demand, a monthly survey said on Thursday.
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