Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
BP Plc has won a bid to operate ONGC's giant Mumbai High oil and gas field by offering up to 60 per cent increase in output over baseline, the state-owned firm said on Wednesday. State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) had in June last year floated a tender seeking foreign partners to reverse declining output at its flagship Mumbai High fields, offering a share of revenue from incremental production plus a fixed fee but not any equity stake.
The eight key infrastructure sectors' growth rose by 6.3 per cent in May on healthy expansion in the production of coal, natural gas, and electricity, though the growth rate is lower than in April, according to official data released on Friday. The production of the eight sectors grew 6.7 per cent in April. The growth of these core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 5.2 per cent in May 2023.
Chinese stock markets suffered their biggest single-day drop since the global financial crisis.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
The Opec output has fallen slightly in November at around 29 million barrels a day since last August.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday invited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to visit India and the Ukrainian leader said he would be happy to travel to the 'great' country.
The GST Council on Saturday postponed a decision on cutting tax rate on life and health insurance premiums, officials said. The 55th meeting of the GST Council, chaired by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and comprising state counterparts, decided that some more technicalities needed to be ironed out and tasked the GoM for further deliberations.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
Oil firms' borrowings could fall by up to Rs 15,000 cr, govt's subsidy bill by 12% .
Reliance Industries Ltd on Monday reported a 5 per cent fall in the net profit for the July-September quarter, as weak oil refining and petrochemical business hurt operational performance.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
The production growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a six-month low of 7.8 per cent in November due to a decline in the output of crude oil and cement sectors. The growth rate in the production of coal, fertiliser, steel, and electricity also decreased during November this year. According to the data released by the government on Friday, the growth during the month under review, however, is higher than the 5.7 per cent recorded a year ago.
China is slowing down, Europe is barely afloat and the US is meeting a larger chunk of its own demand.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
After remaining in the positive zone for three months, India's exports contracted 1.2 per cent to $33.98 billion in July, while the trade deficit widened to $23.5 billion.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a 15-month low of 3.6 per cent in January, on account of poor performance of sectors like refinery products, fertiliser, steel and electricity, according to the official data released on Thursday. The growth of eight core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 4.9 per cent in December. It was 9.7 per cent in January 2023.
The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
Declining crude price translates into lower under-recoveries for OMCs
Macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of Q1 earnings and global trends are the major factors that would influence trading sentiments in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors would also be a crucial factor in dictating movement in the market. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
The GST Council, in its meeting on Saturday, is likely to decide on reducing tax rates on life and health insurance premiums, while hiking it on high-end wrist watches, shoes and apparels, besides considering a separate 35 per cent tax slab for sin goods. The 55th meeting of the GST Council, chaired by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and comprising state counterparts, is likely to discuss rate rejig in about 148 items, besides, it will also deliberate on bringing Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), a major component for airline industry's operation cost, in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) fold.
The growth of these core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 4.6 per cent in April 2023.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a 14-month low of 3.8 per cent in December 2023, on account of poor performance of sectors like crude oil, electricity, steel and cement, according to the official data released on Wednesday. The core sector (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity) growth in November was 7.9 per cent. It was 8.3 per cent in December 2022.
Indian Navy's destroyer INS Kochi responded following the attack on the vessel, MV Andromeda Star, on April 26, officials said, adding all the crew members are safe.
India's crude oil imports have jumped 5.3 per cent to 51.928 million tonnes in the first seven months of the current fiscal as against 49.289 million tonnes in the same period last fiscal.
Government is planning to levy a 10-20 paise per litre cess on petrol and diesel to fund build up 45 days' strategic crude oil reserves to meet contingency requirement like disruption in supplies in the event of war.
Ukraine is currently in the middle of a strategic offensive into Russia's Kursk region.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
The outcome of the Union Budget, quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends are the major factors to drive stock market sentiments this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude are also crucial aspects to watch out for.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance and JSW Steel were the biggest gainers. Asian Paints, Maruti, Nestle, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
The Indian basket represents the price of Oman and Dubai sour grade crude.
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