Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given HDFC Bank six months to migrate HDFC's home loan customers to external benchmark linked lending rate (EBLR), top sources in the bank told Business Standard. Almost half of HDFC's 5.4 million customers are home loan customers. It is mandatory for banks to link retail loans and loans to micro, medium and small enterprises to an external benchmark. Non-banking financial companies do not have such a mandate.
The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
Outward remittances in February under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) fell 23 per cent over January, latest data released by the central bank, in its monthly bulletin, revealed. In February, Indians remitted $2.1 billion under the RBI's liberalised scheme. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis - aided by international travel - LRS jumped 15.24 per cent. Further, in April 2022-February 2023, outward remittances under LRS stood at $24.18 billion, an all-time high.
The demand for gold is expected to take a hit if the price of the yellow metal - which has been hovering around Rs 60,000, a level never seen before - remains elevated. Due to a sharp increase in price in a very short time and the flow of smuggled gold continuing, gold price in Mumbai is quoted at around Rs 59,000 per 10 gram. Typically, overall demand in the January-March and July-September quarters is moderate-to-dull, which is the case in the ongoing period.
The recently launched retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot has 50,000 users and 5,000 merchants, the RBI said on Wednesday. "We want the process to happen, but we want the process to happen gradually and slowly. "We are in no hurry to make something happen so quickly," Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said at the post-policy press conference in Mumbai.
India's headline retail inflation is expected to moderate further in the months to come, as low wholesale inflation will transmit to consumer prices, the Ministry of Finance said in its latest monthly economic review (MER) on Monday. "Inflationary pressures eased in February, with slight moderation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation softening to a 25-month low. "With WPI inflation easing, its transmission to CPI inflation is soon expected," the MER for February said.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday allowed inbound travellers from G20 nations arriving at select airports to use the popular UPI for making payments in the country. Later, the RBI also proposes to extend the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) facility to travellers from all countries. UPI is a system that powers multiple bank accounts into a single mobile application, merging several banking features, seamless fund routing & merchant payments into one hood.
India's forex reserves increased by $3.034 billion to $576.76 billion as of January 27, making it the third consecutive week of a jump in the kitty. The overall reserves had risen by $1.727 billion to $573.727 billion in the previous reporting week. It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
India and the US on Monday committed to further improving bilateral ties, exploring alternate mechanisms for funding renewable energy and actively pursuing the G20 agenda which includes strengthening MDBs and taking coordinated action to deal with climate change. Several issues, including climate action, rising indebtedness in low and middle income countries and digital public infrastructure, figured during a bilateral meeting between Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. India, Sitharaman said, will "look forward to furthering ... bilateral interests through development cooperation and new investment opportunities through Alternate Investment platforms for renewable energy."
The central government has given banks and credit card entities six to eight months to put in place the requisite reporting mechanism and related features to collect tax at source on international credit card transactions, a senior bureaucrat told Business Standard. According to the bureaucrat, the plan to bring overseas credit cards under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) has not been mothballed and is simply being deferred so that banks get adequate time to get the system up and running. The official expects the reporting mechanism to be ready in the given time, and the rule could be implemented in the next financial year (2024-25, or FY25).
In a mixed bag for HDFC Bank ahead of the parent HDFC's merger with itself, the Reserve Bank of India has declined to make exceptions on certain aspects, and has offered some leeway on others. The country's largest private sector lender, which is aiming to conclude the merger with the home finance major by July, had written to the central bank seeking certain forbearances after announcing the $40-billion merger in April last year. In an exchange filing this evening, HDFC Bank said it received a response from RBI on Thursday and also said that there are a few pending issues.
India's forex reserves declined by $1.27 billion to $561.58 billion for the week ended January 6, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. The overall reserves had increased by $44 million to $562.85 billion in the previous reporting week after two consecutive weeks of the slide. In October 2021, the country's foreign exchange kitty reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
If the central banks act harshly now, the markets will crash and then rally. If they are hesitant, the pain will be prolonged, predicts Debashis Basu.
The combined market-cap of all listed Adani group firms has plunged nearly Rs 7.11 trillion since January 24 when the Hindenburg report was made public.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday (local time) raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) or three-quarters of a percentage point in the boldest move since 1994.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Infosys, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Titan, HDFC Bank, Wipro, HDFC and ITC were among the laggards.
Winding down quantitative easing will be messy for the West and a big problem for India.
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro, Axis Bank, Titan, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank, HDFC, HCL Tech and Reliance were the gainers.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations on the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of at least a 35-basis-point hike in the interest rate to check high inflation. If raised, it will be the third consecutive hike in the repo rate -- the short-term rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance.
Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has said the central bank could lose control over money supply and inflation management if cryptocurrency is allowed in the country. Speaking at a webinar organised by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and New York University (NYU) Stern School of Business, Rao also said India's case for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) may not be strong as there are capital controls. "Crypto is backed by algorithms and there is fear that the central bank might lose control over money supply and inflation management.
A day after the RBI raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points, Kotak Mahindra Bank Managing Director Uday Kotak on Thursday said the central bank may go for one more rate hike to bring inflation below its upper tolerance level of 6 per cent. Yesterday, the RBI indicated that it wants inflation to be within the band first and then move towards the target of 4 per cent, Kotak said at the CII Global Economic Policy Summit 2022. "My sense is that there could be one more rate hike and that may be the time for thinking about a pivot, but we got to watch very closely the data, and maybe around 6.5 per cent as it looks today, subject to what happens to the world, subject to what happens to oil, subject to what happens to many other things," he said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is embroiled in allegations of bribery to win foreign contracts. According to The Age, a Reserve Bank of Australia currency firm was willing to supply prostitutes and pay bribes to win contracts.
In the absence of major domestic events, equity markets will be driven by global trends, foreign fund flows and movement in the Brent crude oil, analysts said. The major global events this week are the European Central Bank interest rate decision and China's inflation rate, they added. "Indian equity markets are outperforming most of their global peers and trying to show resilience despite weak global cues.
India's forex reserves increased by $1.78 billion to $573.78 billion in the week ended January 20, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday. This is the second consecutive week of a rise in the kitty after the $10.42 billion jump to $572 billion during the preceding week. In October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
The proposed Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to be issued by the Reserve Bank will play a critical role in improving the speed of transactions and reducing the cost of cash, a Deloitte report said on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of India is planning to come out with a central bank-backed digital currency, using blockchain technology in 2022-23. As a financial services innovation, CBDCs are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping the 'future of value transfer', the report said, adding that most central banks worldwide are now in various stages of their evaluation of launching their national digital currencies.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
The Covid winter seems to be finally ending for debt-oriented mutual fund (MF) schemes as interest rates peak, especially for those that invest in shorter-maturity papers. In the past two months, shorter-horizon debt schemes - ultra-short, low-duration, and money-market - have together raked in net inflows of Rs 48,000 crore, the highest for two months since April-May 2021. These schemes invest in shorter-maturity papers ranging from three months to a year.
The speed at which he led the central bank in different areas -- ranging from internal reorganisation to inflation fighting, stabilising the currency, taking on rogue corporations, cleaning up bank balance sheets, and opening the sector -- makes one believe that Rajan knew he had only three years to do his job. A fascinating excerpt from Tamal Bandyopadhyay's MUST-READ Roller Coaster: An Affair with Banking.
The RBI on Thursday said banks' gross NPA ratio has fallen to a sever-year low of 5 per cent and the banking system remains sound and well-capitalised. In the 26th issue of the Financial Stability Report (FSR), the RBI also said the global economy is facing formidable headwinds with recessionary risks looming large. The interplay of multiple shocks has resulted in tightened financial conditions and heightened volatility in financial markets, it pointed out.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday nudged the fintech industry to break the distance barrier and have more engagements with the government and its agencies to enhance trust. Sitharaman was replying to a question by Kris Gopalakrishnan, chairman, Global Fintech Fest (GFF) 2022 advisory board, who wanted to know how to ensure trust among industry, regulators, and the government. "I don't want to sound cliche, but distance brings distrust. "So, cut the distance down, have greater engagement with the government," the minister said.
Former RBI governor D Subbarao on Monday said there is a strong motivation for the central bank to launch a digital currency and cash is going to coexist with the new-age currency. Addressing an event virtually organised by economic think tank NCAER, Subbarao further said cybersecurity is also one of the downside risks of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). "There is a strong motivation for the RBI to launch CBDC... Cash is going to coexist with CBDC," he said.
'We are in a sweet spot.' 'Equity, on a standalone basis, will continue to remain the asset class to stay invested in.'
India's forex reserves zoomed by $10.42 billion to $572 billion as on January 13, making it one of the biggest weekly jumps in the kitty in recent times. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $1.268 billion to $561.58 billion. In October 2021, the country's forex kitty reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
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