Raghuram Rajan rejected the argument that inflation has come down largely because of "good luck" stemming from low oil prices.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that this stage would have been "premature" and "very very risky" as the retail inflation is still high, and future monetary policy action would depend upon the income data and outlook. Earlier this month, the RBI continued to maintain the status quo in the short-term lending interest rate (repo), citing inflationary concerns, though it changed the monetary policy stance to neutral.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
By piling more pressure on governments, central banks risk not accomplishing much and yet provoking a political backlash that could threaten their independence.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and PowerGrid were also among the laggards.
Privately, many bankers admit their immediate goal is not growth but slowing the erosion of Casa deposits, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for "resilient growth" in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to "modest" easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26.
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
Religious structures, Bengali traditions, and 'graffiti' drawn during the July uprising will be included on the currency notes.
Voices from the Treasury are clamouring for lowering rates as this would boost demand.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
Sanjay Malhotra takes charge as the 26th RBI governor at a time when headline retail inflation has shot up to 6.2%.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Among the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, UltraTech Cement, HCL Technologies, and Power Grid, were the biggest gainers. Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the laggards.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Two more leading public sector lenders, Central Bank of India and IDBI Bank, on Friday joined the rate hike spree following the Reserve Bank's recent hike in interest rates by announcing a hike of 75 basis point in their base rates.
RBI Deputy Governor Swaminathan J has asked banks to follow KYC guidelines with both "precision and empathy", failing which regulatory actions will be taken against them by the central bank. Addressing a Conference of Directors of Private Sector Banks here on Monday, the Deputy Governor also expressed concern that in many cases, customer grievance mechanisms, including the Internal Ombudsman structure, are treated more as a formality than as a robust, effective resource.
The hacking took place on the night of February 4.
State-run Central Bank of India on Thursday said Reserve Bank of India's credit policy initiative has increased pressure on interest rates.
State Bank of India, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have again been named as Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIBs) by the Reserve Bank of India. The Reserve Bank on Wednesday came out with the list of D-SIBs.
'The impact of CBDC on deposits and deposit insurance is largely unknown.'
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
A day after his appointment as the 26th governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), outgoing Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday said one must understand the economic landscape and do what was best for the economy. "Let me first go, join, understand the turf ... Here it is a different role," Malhotra said, speaking to reporters in front of North Block.
The state-owned bank's loss largely offsets the Rs 1,800-crore (Rs 18-billion) capital injection the government will make in FY14.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
The Bangladesh Supreme Court has stayed a High Court verdict that declared 'Joy Bangla' as the country's national slogan, effectively reversing the decision. The government, which had moved to suspend the High Court's ruling, argued that the national slogan is a matter of policy and not subject to judicial interference. This decision comes amid political turmoil in the country, with the recent change of government and a focus on revising national symbols and holidays.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
The proposed four per cent inflation target is onerous, considering India is currently battling near-double-digit increases in prices.
Mint Road, on December 21, 2023, flagged the role of self-regulatory organisations (SROs) in strengthening the compliance culture in regulated entities (REs) and providing a consultative platform for policymaking. It also decided to issue an omnibus framework for SROs.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
Gold prices slumped for the second straight session by Rs 1,150 to Rs 78,350 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday on frantic selling by stockists and retailers, the All India Sarafa Association said. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity closed at Rs 79,500 per 10 grams on Friday.
India's forex reserves jumped by $12.59 billion to a new all-time high of $704.88 billion for the week ended September 27, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. The overall kitty had swelled by $2.84 billion to $692.3 billion in the previous reporting week. The $12.588 billion would be one of the highest weekly rises ever and this is the first time the reserves have crossed the $700 billion mark.
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