The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday directed banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) offering gold loans to thoroughly review their policies, processes, and practices to identify any gaps. The central bank also told them to closely monitoring their gold loan portfolios amid significant growth observed in this segment vis--vis some lenders. Additionally, the RBI, through a circular, instructed these lenders to ensure adequate controls over outsourced activities and third-party service providers.
A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
The proposed four per cent inflation target is onerous, considering India is currently battling near-double-digit increases in prices.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday said the fiscal-monetary coordination was at its best during the last six years even as he thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for giving the opportunity to head the monetary authority of the country. Das, in a series of posts on X, on his last day of his six-year term as RBI Governor, also thanked the Finance Minister, various stakeholders and his colleagues at the central bank.
Perhaps because the Modi government had some differences of opinion with two of the economist governors (one of whom was appointed by the Manmohan Singh government), there is a view that its political leadership prefers a civil servant to head the RBI, notes A K Bhattacharya.
India's stock markets corrected recently but foreign money is likely to chase China rather than India in the short-to-medium term, said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, on Thursday. Wood told the Business Standard Manthan Summit in New Delhi he is bullish about Indian equities from a long-term perspective, but for the short term he is cautious given the quantum of foreign investor (FII) outflows and valuation woes.
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
Central Bank of India said on Tuesday it has an exposure of Rs 49 crore (Rs 490 million) to Raju-family owned Maytas and is 'willing' to lend to Satyam Computer Services if the company approaches it with a viable proposal. Central Bank of India has a total loan book of Rs 81,000-crore (Rs 810 billion), out of which nearly 27 per cent was contributed by its corporate portfolio.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Investors became richer by nearly Rs 8 lakh crore on Wednesday as benchmark BSE Sensex surged by 740 points amid value buying in utilities and power shares and a strong trend in global markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged by 740.30 points or 1.01 per cent to close at 73,730.23.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that this stage would have been "premature" and "very very risky" as the retail inflation is still high, and future monetary policy action would depend upon the income data and outlook. Earlier this month, the RBI continued to maintain the status quo in the short-term lending interest rate (repo), citing inflationary concerns, though it changed the monetary policy stance to neutral.
India's forex reserves increased by $1.51 billion to $658.09 billion for the week ended November 29, the RBI said on Friday. The overall reserves had dropped by $1.31 billion to $656.58 billion in the previous reporting week.
Market participants said expectations of a rise in interest rates by the RBI and US Fed's comments on its stimulus programme are likely to keep the market nervous in the week ahead.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 44,396 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by strength of the dollar, rising bond yields in the US, and expectations of a weak earnings season. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
Indian economy grew at 7.9 per cent in fourth quarter of 2015-16.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
Never allow financial capital to dominate over the real economy.
The Central Bank of India which is marking its centenary celebrations starting from today, plans to open branches oversees and achieve core banking solution (CBS) in all its existing branches, a top company official has said.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for "resilient growth" in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to "modest" easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Central banks are unlikely to go for co-ordinated withdrawal of stimulus measures as it may hamper global economic recovery, a top financial services expert said on Wednesday.
The state-owned Central Bank of India on Friday said it plans to open over 100 branches during the current fiscal.
Voicing concern over the global recession, G-20 Finance Ministers have asked their central banks to adopt aggressive and unconventional monetary policies to ensure price stability and restore growth.
Religious structures, Bengali traditions, and 'graffiti' drawn during the July uprising will be included on the currency notes.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and PowerGrid were also among the laggards.
Sanjay Malhotra takes charge as the 26th RBI governor at a time when headline retail inflation has shot up to 6.2%.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
