India must be prepared for a big, fat fuel import bill in FY23 - barring any further avatars of the Covid virus - as refiners crank up runs, or crude processing rates, to meet the growing demand for fuels, and crude prices soar. Capacity additions by an Indian state-run refiner will reinforce the need for foreign crude. Demand for all fuels is expected to increase by 3-8 per cent next fiscal from 2021-22, reaching pre-pandemic levels, according to analysts and industry experts.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has weathered the pandemic very well, and has earned tremendous goodwill from customers, which enhanced the firm's standing in the market, N Chandrasekaran, chairman, said in his virtual address of the 26th Annual General Meeting on Thursday. He said TCS shareholders received over 3,000 per cent return on their investments since the company was listed in 2004.
'They are also sitting on huge public sector assets without many returns.'
Free provision of food, cash transfers, and jobs in villages see enhanced flow of funds despite a precipitous fall in revenue. Till May, defence spend was nearly 30 per cent less than the previous year.
In the post-demonetisation phase, the govt's tax revenues have ended up soaring in November.
In an interaction with Jash Kriplani, A Balasubramanian, managing director and chief executive officer, Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, shares his optimism on what makes him believe that these cuts can help in addressing multiple issues plaguing the economy, without letting fiscal deficit pose any major risk.
'Everyone says never waste a crisis.' 'When we went into Covid and we were in total lockdown, we were at work.' 'The planes were not flying and we wondered what to do.' 'We looked at each of our performance metrics -- what are customers complaining about, how do employees feel, how do investors feel?'
'It is a worrying trend as we are not seeing too much fresh capital being raised for new projects, plants, expansion or diversification. It's just private equity or venture capital or promoters cashing out.'
'Unemployment barely figures in the Budget except as a derived demand from the industry and infrastructure.' 'There is no effort at direct attack on unemployment.'
'Today, there is no easy money to be made after the run-up in equities.'
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd's plans for investing Rs 75,000 crore in solar, batteries, fuel cells and hydrogen could create valuation of $36 billion (Rs 2.6 lakh crore) for the new energy business, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein Research said in a report. Reliance currently has three verticals -- oil-to-chemical (O2C) business that houses its oil refineries, petrochemical plants and fuel retailing business; digital services that comprises telecom arm Jio; and retail including e-commerce. New Energy will be the fourth vertical. At the company's annual general meeting of shareholders last month, Ambani announced a plan to invest Rs 75,000 crore in a new energy business over the next 3 years in the next stage in its transformation.
Most have seen decline in cash reserves and deterioration in financial ratios in recent years.
In his last Budget, Suresh Prabhu, set an ambitious target for capital expenditure.
'Any normalisation exercise will bring its share of volatility.'
Mobile operators with the exception of Reliance Jio are in a much worse financial condition than expected earlier. The combined borrowing of the four incumbent operators - Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL), and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL) - reached an all-time high of Rs 3.85 trillion at the end of March this year. The companies' combined debt was up 22.4 per cent year-on-year last financial year against 8.3 per cent growth in their borrowing in the previous year. As a result, the incumbent operators' debt-equity ratio shot up to an unsustainably high level of 6.83X at the end of March this year from 2.3X at the end of March 2020. This was largely due to big losses reported by all these companies last financial year. The four incumbent operators racked up combined net losses of Rs 70,000 crore in FY21.
The Budget kept away from mood dampeners such as an increase in taxes (capital gain taxes) and even the much-feared introduction of Covid cess and wealth taxes, says Nimesh Kampani, chairman, JM Financial.
In 2019-20, the capital expenditure of Indian Railways (IR) increased 60 per cent over 2016-17. The draft National Railways plan envisages a further increase in IR's capital expenditure, but an analysis by Business Standard shows that IR has come to depend more on borrowings and budgetary support. In 2016-17, while 11 per cent of its capital expenditure (capex) was funded by internal sources, in 2019-20 the ratio dropped to less than 1 per cent. A 2015 Committee on Restructuring Railways had flagged that over-reliance on borrowings could exacerbate the financial situation of Railways.
The proposed reorganisation plan by Reliance Industries Ltd to transfer its refining, marketing and petrochemical (oil-to-chemicals) businesses to a wholly-owned subsidiary is a step towards facilitating participation by strategic investors in the unit, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. The reorganisation of the business in Reliance O2C Limited (O2C) "will have a neutral impact on RIL's credit metrics and rating," it said in a statement. The transfer will be on a "slump sale basis", subject to attaining the requisite approvals.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Monday trimmed India's economic growth estimates by 30 basis points to 7.1 per cent for the current fiscal, while global financial services giant Morgan Stanley downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from the earlier 7.7 per cent.
Adani Airports is planning to centre its airport business around Mumbai and Ahmedabad by developing them as gateway airports, feeding them with traffic from other airports in the company's portfolio. The Ahmedabad-based conglomerate - with investments in logistics, transportation, utilities and energy - intends to spend Rs 35,000 crore in the airport business in the next five years. This forms the bulk of the conglomerate's total capex of Rs 50,000 crore. According to a presentation given by the company in an investor call with Bank of America, gateway airports of Mumbai and Ahmedabad will be connected with the feeder airports of Lucknow, Guwahati, Trivandrum, Jaipur and Mangalore.
The government has given an option to telcos to pay back interest on dues through equity and also conveyed that it has no interest in acquiring any telecom company, a top official of debt-ridden Vodafone Idea has said. Vodafone Idea Ltd (VIL) managing director and CEO Ravinder Takkar in an interview to PTI said it is clear that the government wants the company to compete in the market and there should be at least three private service providers in the telecom sector. "I have had many many interactions across various parts of the government leading up to this announcement (telecom reforms).
Tyre companies are stepping up on exports to offset declining volumes from domestic OEMs.
While the likelihood of these states going the Lanka or Greece way may be an alarming assessment, the financial situation of some states such as Punjab and West Bengal is indeed quite weak.
The fundamental debate remains where you stand on the long-term growth question. That is what every investor must monitor and come to their own conclusions, suggests Akash Prakash.
'Our strategy is intact and our important pillars for India -- the SUV roll-out and the focus on the cost of ownership of a car -- remain in focus'
'Slower-than-anticipated recovery can be a bigger risk this time than a liquidity-driven event -- at least for India.'
The ongoing key reforms such as sops for manufacturing, easier labour laws, wooing FDI inflows and privatisation will help improve productivity and support long-term growth at 7.5-8 per cent levels, which if played out well, can help India contribute 15 per cent of global GDP growth by FY2026, says a report. According to a report pencilled by the India economist at UBS Securities, Tanvee Gupta Jain, the country has the lowest manufacturing costs among peers, even though China retains significant ecosystem advantages and despite that India and Vietnam appear most likely to benefit from a shift out of China.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
'There is a vision in the Budget, and the vision is to take India from a largely agrarian, rural economy into a fast-track digitalised economy.'
Of these 8.5 million additional people employed in September, 6.5 million were in rural India, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
'As valuations of large-caps appeared to be out of whack, investors started lapping up quality mid-caps and small-caps, which were available at relatively comfortable valuations.'
For banks to give debt requires equity from promoters, Kumar said, adding that the number of people or business houses who have that capability to invest has shrunk.
Unveiling his infrastructure conglomerate's green vision, billionaire Gautam Adani on Tuesday said his group will invest $20 billion over the next 10 years in renewable energy generation and component manufacturing and will produce the world's cheapest green electron. The port-to-energy conglomerate plans to triple its renewable power generation capacity over the next four years, foray into green hydrogen production, power all data centres with renewable energy, turn its ports into net carbon zero by 2025, and plans to spend over 75 per cent of capital expenditure until 2025 in green technologies, he said. Speaking at JP Morgan India Investor Summit, Adani Group chairman said the USD 20 billion investment will be in renewable energy generation, component manufacturing, transmission and distribution.
India's second-largest telecom firm Bharti Airtel on Tuesday reported a net profit of Rs 1,134 crore for the September 2021 quarter, and said it is witnessing strong business momentum with growth in 4G customers and increase in mobile ARPU. This is against a loss (attributable to owners of the parent) of 763.2 crore during the year-ago quarter, the company said in a statement. Its consolidated revenues for the second quarter of FY21 stood at Rs 28,326.4 crore, up 18.8 per cent year-on-year (on a comparable basis) and 13 per cent y-o-y on a reported basis, it added.
'It will take six months to one year to move to normalcy, depending on how the pandemic plays out in India.'
Narendra Modi will have to revive investment cycle if he becomes the next Primie Minister.
Fresh capital raised by companies by way of initial public offerings (IPOs) is set to hit a 14-year high, thanks mainly to Zomato's maiden offering. India Inc has raised about Rs 19,300 crore in fresh capital by maiden offerings, including the Rs 9,000 crore the food delivery company will raise this week, so far in 2021. The best year in terms of fresh fund-raise was 2007, when companies had raised Rs 32,102 crore. With Paytm planning to issue fresh shares worth Rs 12,000 crore, the domestic market looks set to surpass that tally this year.
Mutual funds (MFs) are set to be net sellers of Indian equities for the first time in the past seven financial years, having sold stocks worth about Rs 1.27 trillion so far in 2020-21 (FY21), making it the highest net sales on record in a financial year. MFs had been net buyers in the previous six financial years, including purchases of over Rs 1.41 trillion in FY18, Rs 88,152 crore in FY19, and Rs 91,814 crore in FY20. The last time they offloaded Indian equities was in FY14, when they net sold stocks worth Rs 21,159 crore. In contrast, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have ramped up buying in FY21, purchasing more than Rs 2.6 trillion worth of shares.
In January-June, India attracted $31 billion (Rs 2.05 lakh crore) in capital expenditure (capex) from foreign companies.
20 defence ministry reforms 'is a reflection of the resolve of the government to make the defence sector stronger and more efficient.'
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