The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
The Bengaluru-based quick-commerce application (app) Zepto is making big strides. According to Sensor Tower data, it surpassed JioMart in November, securing the second position among grocery apps in terms of monthly usage. This shift, identified by BofA Global Research, closely monitoring key segments of the app business, has pushed JioMart to third place in the grocery space.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Monday trimmed India's economic growth estimates by 30 basis points to 7.1 per cent for the current fiscal, while global financial services giant Morgan Stanley downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from the earlier 7.7 per cent.
According to a report by BofA-ML, capital markets are 'usually jittery prior to the declaration of election results as it is uncertain about the outcome'.
Attorney general Andrew M Cuomo has also sued BofA's former CFO Joseph L Price. "Bank of America's management intentionally failed to disclose massive losses at Merrill so that shareholders would vote to approve the merger.
Bank of America has named Infosys McCamish Systems as a source of a data breach that it said affected 57,028 customers, as per documents submitted to the Maine Attorney General in the US. Infosys McCamish Systems (IMS) is an Infosys' step-down subsidiary. The notification, penned on behalf of Bank of America, describes the breach as an "external system breach (hacking)", while the information acquired has been mentioned as "name or other personal identifier in combination with: social security number".
A rate cut by the Reserve Bank is likely to help the rupee, which today hit a record low of 57.54 versus dollar, says a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) report.
The global brokerage firm believes that CRR cut is likely to help cut lending rates and revive growth sentiments.
The report further said that confidence is improving, while risk aversion is falling and has upgraded industrial production to neutral from negative.
However, the American brokerage said it continues to expect the Reserve Bank to cut policy rates by 25 bps on January 29.
BofA-ML said the liquidity deficit is running higher than the forecasts because the RBI has suspended its bond buybacks or open market operations.
Banks in India are expected to cut lending rates by up to 50 basis points by September as there is sufficient liquidity in the system.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
The cash pile within smallcap mutual fund (MF) schemes has grown over the past few months amid a relentless rally in stocks in this space. While fund managers usually don't make cash calls, incessant inflows and valuation discomfort have forced their hand. At the end of January, the top 10 schemes had over Rs 12,160 crore in cash, compared to Rs 8,700 crore in August 2023.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to take far more pro-active steps to rebuild forex reserves, because if the status quo remains, rupee could touch 75 per US dollar by the end of 2014, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report.
According to the foreign brokerage major, after two quarters of 'near-zero' growth aggregate headline profit for Sensex companies, it is expected to show a weak recovery.
Ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Rare Enterprises Ltd and BofA Securities Europe SA on Tuesday bought shares of Zee Entertainment Enterprises worth over Rs 225 crore through open market transactions.
Mutual funds (MFs) are likely to surpass foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in terms of anchor investments in initial public offerings (IPOs) for the second consecutive year. In calendar year 2023 so far, MFs have invested Rs 5,577 crore as anchor investors, compared to the Rs 5,417 crore invested by FPIs this year. In 2022, MFs put in Rs 9,026 crore as anchor investment, 21 per cent higher than the FPI tally of Rs 7,105 crore. This marked the first time since 2014 that MFs had outpaced FPIs in anchor investments.
The Reserve Bank of India has already reduced the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points, or 0.75 per cent, since January.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
The RBI opened a forex swap window in August to meet the entire daily dollar requirements of three oil marketing companies as the rupee depreciated to an all-time low of 68.85 against the US currency.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Sundararaman Ramamurthy has been an interesting choice for the publicly-listed BSE, which has seen its chief move to bigger rival -- the National Stock Exchange (NSE) -- in July. Having spent nearly two decades at the country's largest bourse, Ramamurthy is among the early architects of NSE and understands all the cogs of the exchange wheel like only a few others in the country. Just like NSE's core team, which includes its founder RH Patil, the 59-year-old Ramamurthy has worked at the Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI) before moving to NSE in 1995.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
The government on May 17 formed a five-member committee.
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India may remain tepid in 2022, said a recent note by Goldman Sachs, who now peg the foreign portfolio investment into India at $5 billion in 2022, down from their earlier forecast of $30 billion with risks skewed to the downside. "There has been $15 billion of equity outflows YTD in India already, and the IPO of the largest insurance company has been pushed out. "Additionally, with no mention of India's inclusion in global bond indices in the Union Budget, there are risks to our already conservative base case assumption of an announcement of India's likely inclusion into the GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index in Q4-2022," wrote Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist in a co-authored report with Santanu Sengupta and Suraj Kumar.
Jio Financial Services, the demerged financial services unit of Reliance Industries, will be listed on bourses on August 21, according to an exchange notification. Jio Financial Services Ltd (JFSL) demerged from Reliance last month and is currently listed under a dummy ticker after its price discovery at Rs 261.85 but there is no trading happening in the scrip. The listing on BSE and NSE has been scheduled a day before FTSE Russell plans to drop JFSL from its indices.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
The small-cap universe outperformed large-caps, but failed to match the returns generated by mid-caps in August. The Nifty Smallcap 100 Index rose 4.9 per cent. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index rose 3.5 per cent and the Nifty Midcap 100 soared 6.2 per cent. This was only the third calendar month in 2022 when the small-cap index has outperformed the large-cap-oriented Nifty50 Index.
Mutual funds (MFs) are lining up distinguished new fund offerings (NFOs) for the next financial year to win over investors after a lukewarm response to product launches in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23). NFOs drew a lukewarm response in FY23 as launches were mostly in the passive debt space, which has a comparatively lower popularity among retail investors. The limited launches in equity space also failed to rake in huge sums due to subdued investor sentiments in a volatile market.
Despite a firm improvement in the operational metrics of new-age companies during the January-March quarter (Q4FY23), analysts remain cautiously optimistic about their outlook. This is because the shares of these firms are still not risk free, as per analysts, given the companies are yet to make profits. Kranthi Bathini, director-equity strategy at WealthMills Securities says that while the sentiment around these stocks, which includes Paytm and Zomato, has turned positive, it remains to be seen how soon these firms turn profitable and improve margins.
Ride-hailing app Uber is selling off its entire holding in Indian food delivery company Zomato for at least $373 million (Rs 2,939 crore) through a block deal of shares, merchant banking sources said on Tuesday. The development comes on a day when the Zomato scrip witnessed a nearly 20 per cent surge to close at Rs 55.60 apiece on the BSE. The sources said the offer price range for the deal to be carried out on Wednesday will be between Rs 48-54 per share.
Half the stocks in the Nifty 100 index have seen a reduction in their target price by analysts this year due to fears of lacklustre earnings growth and uncertain economic environment. Adani Green Energy, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Adani Ports & SEZ and Indus Towers are among the companies that have seen the maximum cut in TPs during the first three months of calendar 2023, shows Bloomberg data. On the other hand, Canara Bank, JSW Steel and Bank of Baroda have seen the highest increase in TPs.
Limited visibility around tariff hike and lack of clarity on new funding could make Vodafone Idea "more dependent" on any form of government relief for improvement of its fundamentals, BofA Securities has said in its latest report. The top brass of cash-strapped telco Vodafone Idea had last week said 'floor price' remains the "best and most preferred" fix for industry's woes arising from tariff-related issues. The company, whose fundraising plans have been significantly delayed, had further said it is in active talks with potential investors, and emphasised that there is no reason to start working on an alternate 'Plan B'.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel will go for a 0.35 per cent hike in the key repo rate at its meeting next week, an American brokerage said on Wednesday. The hike will be accompanied by a change in the policy stance to "calibrated tightening", Bofa Securities said in a report published ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolution which is set to be announced on August 5. RBI has hiked the rate by a cumulative 0.90 per cent in two tightening moves in May and June, responding to the runaway headline inflation which has consistently overshot the upper end of the target set for the central bank for many months.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
Bharti Airtel's fund raising is expected to strengthen its competitive positioning in the market and provide the telco with the necessary ammunition for aggressive 5G rollout, analysts said. The capital raising announcement, though unexpected and surprising, would enable Airtel to enhance its market share and provides it wherewithal to make faster investment in a scenario India moves to a two-player market earlier than expected, some analysts felt. Bharti Airtel's board on Sunday approved raising up to Rs 21,000 crore by way of rights issue at a price of Rs 535 per share.
American brokerage BofA Securities on Friday said the Indian economy continues to be "weak", pointing to activity indicators tracked by it. On the positive side, the brokerage said credit demand is bottoming out and the real lending rates adjusted for wholesale price inflation are falling. It can be noted that there has been a slew of reports lately about a stronger recovery being underway after the jolt caused by the pandemic.
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