Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
Precious metal prices surged in futures trading, with silver hitting Rs 2.93 lakh per kg and gold nearing Rs 1.68 lakh per 10 grams, driven by safe-haven demand following US-Israel strikes in Iran and retaliatory attacks.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Trent, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Bharat Electronics and Maruti were among the biggest gainers. However, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro and Titan were the laggards.
Gold prices are likely to trade firm next week as traders await key economic data, including US inflation numbers, for fresh cues on interest rate outlook, while silver may remain volatile amid shifting risk sentiment and speculative activity, analysts said.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
Gold's glittering rally is expected to continue, with prices likely to climb towards $4,500 per ounce in overseas markets, supported by sustained global central bank purchases, persistent geopolitical tensions, and strong Asian demand, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Silver, which has outperformed gold in terms of returns so far this year, is projected to climb to around $75 per ounce, aided by robust industrial consumption and a widening supply deficit, the report said.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
The rupee plunged 20 paise to close at an all-time low of 78.13 against the US dollar on Monday, as a lacklustre trend in domestic equities and stronger greenback overseas weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said weak Asian currencies and persistent foreign capital outflows were the other major factors that dragged the local unit down. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.02 and a low of 78.29 against the US dollar.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the local market in New Delhi on Tuesday amid subdued demand by jewellers after the government announced the customs duty cut on the yellow metal and silver to 6 per cent.
In a drastic measure to stem any major disruption to the US economy as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate to almost zero and said it would buy USD700 billion in bonds. The covid-19 pandemic has sickened more than 156,000 people worldwide and left more than 5,800 dead. The death toll in the US stands at 68, while infections neared 3,700.
The dollar gained against other currencies overseas.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
The rupee fell to more than one-month low of 65.75 against the US dollar on Thursday.
The rupee fell by 41 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.04 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.02 and a low of 79.38. It finally settled at 79.36 (provisional), down 41 paise over its previous close.
The rupee weakened even as the dollar fell against major global currencies
The rupee ended lower by six paise at 65.73 against the US dollar on Monday.
The rupee ended marginally lower by three paise at 66.36 against the US dollar.
The rupee appreciated further on Thursday, adding 106 paise to 66.01 against the dollar, after steps taken by new Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to attract US currency inflows boosted market sentiment.
Reflecting nervousness over the prospect of the Federal Reserve tightening policy and event risk, traders stayed on the sidelines
The dollar index was down by 0.02 per cent against a basket of six major currencies.
Bouts of dollar demand from importers put pressure on the rupee
The dollar index was trading marginally higher by 0.06 per cent.
Heavy unwinding by foreign portfolio investors and lacklustre equities dampened the sentiment
The rupee ended higher for the second consecutive week.
Forex market was shut on Tuesday on account of 'Mahavir Jayanti'.
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The BofAML report said that five year money can be raised by issuing the 7 to 9 per cent coupon bonds to stabilise markets, just as it was done in 1998 and 2001.
The home currency failed to keep momentum going and largely traded in a narrow range with positive bias in the absence of any market moving factors
The trading range for the Spot USD/INR pair is expected to be within 66.20 to 67.00.
Unwinding of long dollar positions by banks too aided the sentiment
A firming trend in domestic stock markets, however, capped the rupee fall to some extent
The Indian unit opened higher at 66.10 per dollar as against overnight level of 66.30 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market and firmed up further to 66.04 on initial dollar selling.
The dollar's strength against other currencies overseas limited the rupee's gain.
Overseas, the US dollar hovered near a three-week low.
The rupee on Friday fell by 9 paise to 67.64 per dollar on fresh demand for the American currency.
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