A buoyant equity market, coupled with an improved performance of mutual funds (MFs) on the returns chart, has heightened retail investors' appetite for equities. In the past few months, equity MF schemes have seen a surge in fresh investments through both lump sum (one-time investments) and systematic investment plan (SIP) routes. During the August-September 2023 period, equity MF schemes recorded net lump sum investments of Rs 35,270 crore, compared to just Rs 5,550 crore in the previous three months, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Investors are reluctant to take long-term positions this year after the spectacular gains in 2023. The delivery-based trades on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have declined to below 36 per cent this year from an average of 38.1 per cent in 2023. Investors tend to seek delivery for stocks where they see a long-term investment opportunity or tactical positional trade.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
A strong influx of 11 equity new fund offers (NFOs) in June, particularly within the thematic space, helped mutual funds collect Rs 14,370 crore - the highest ever via such introductory offers. This surpassed the previous high recorded in July 2021, where four NFOs accumulated Rs 13,709 crore, with ICICI Prudential MF's flexicap NFO alone mobilising Rs 9,808 crore.
The top 100 companies have accounted for 63% of the gains (Rs 51 trillion out of Rs 81 trillion), while firms beyond the top 100 have contributed 37 per cent (Rs 30 trillion).
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts required to hold shares and other securities in electronic format rose by 3.1 million in April, bringing the total tally to a fresh record of 154.5 million. Since December last year, the new additions have consistently remained above the 3 trillion mark, a sign that the stock markets continue to attract new investors despite a spike in volatility.
From the Sensex basket, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Infosys, HCL Technologies and Asian Paints were the major gainers. NTPC, JSW Steel and HDFC Bank were the laggards.
The last batch of quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will guide the equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Volatility may continue amid investors' cautious approach in the election season. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
This is a good opportunity for long-term investors to pick quality small and midcap stocks at reasonable valuations.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
Equity mutual fund (MF) schemes have raked in Rs 46,200 crore in net lump-sum inflows in the past six months (ended February 2024), almost thrice the inflow in the previous six-month period.
Given gains in equity prices, it is not surprising that the earnings of asset management companies (AMCs) are growing quicker. The earnings momentum looks set to continue. Good fund performances have thus led to AMC earnings upgrades although valuations are high. Recent market performance and net flow trends have led to earnings upgrades by between 3-8 per cent for FY25-27.
The Indian equity market clocked record average daily turnover (ADTV) in both the cash and derivatives segments in February amid a spike in volatility. The ADTV for the cash segment for both the exchanges combined came at Rs 1.27 trillion, while the same for the derivatives or the futures and options (F&O) segment stood at Rs 483 trillion in the previous month. The volumes for both cash and derivatives have almost doubled from a year ago on the back of rising retail participation in the world's fourth largest equity market.
The sharp surge in investment accounts (folios) in midcap and smallcap mutual funds (MF) in recent months is likely driven by the do-it-yourself (DIY) investors. In the first five months of the present financial year (FY 2024), net folio additions in direct MF plans (4.5 million) has outpaced that in regular plans (3.9 million), contrary to the trend seen in the previous three six-month periods. The net folio additions in direct plans in the five-month period (April-August 2023) is 40 per cent higher than the total additions made in the previous six month period.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
Invest in MFs for liquidity and choice of funds. Invest in NPS for the tax benefits, tax-free rebalancing, and for earmarked savings for retirement.
Prominent exits by promoters included a Rs 15,300 crore share sale in Indus Tower by Vodafone Plc, a Rs 9,300 crore share sale by the Tata group in Tata Consultancy Services.
Unperturbed by election uncertainty, investors poured record sums into equity mutual fund (MF) schemes in May, driving India closer to a $5 trillion market capitalisation. The Rs 34,697 crore net inflows into actively managed equity funds last month surpassed the previous high of Rs 28,463 crore recorded in March 2022. In April 2024, equity schemes had garnered nearly Rs 19,000 crore.
Investors' wealth jumped Rs 13.78 lakh crore on Monday as the benchmark equity index Sensex hit its lifetime high after exit polls predicted a massive win for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 2,777.58 points or 3.75 per cent to hit a record peak of 76,738.89 in early trade. The benchmark finally ended at 76,468.78, registering a sharp rally of 2,507.47 points or 3.39 per cent.
Ajit Motwani of Sharekhan picks some smallcap stocks with potential. Motwani likes Ratnamani Metals, WS Industries and Transport Corporation of India.
'If their allocation to certain segments have become high due to strong returns over the past three-four years, they should rebalance their portfolios and bring them in line with their long-term asset allocation.'
Venky's India is a contrarian pick in the poultry industry
This year's tally is the second best ever after 2022 when 16 firms raised Rs 40,311 crore, led by LIC's biggest-ever IPO.
'The Nifty index looks to be 20 per cent overvalued as per our model after moving up more than 10 per cent in the last two months.'
Decisions should not be based on feelings, such as optimism or pessimism about the stock market or specific investment products, suggests Avinash Luthria.
In the Sensex pack, NTPC, Tata Steel, SBI and IndusInd Bank were among the major laggards. In contrast, Wipro, HCL Tech, Mahindra & Mahindra and Nestle were among the nine stocks that defied the trend.
Ulhas Joshi, Head -- Sales, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
'Barring a temporary blip where stocks fell on verdict day, we are back to all-time highs.'
The fees charged by investment banks to manage initial public offerings (IPOs) have increased to an average 3.23 per cent of the issue size this calendar year, the highest since 2020. The average fee is up 8 per cent compared to last year, when it stood at 2.99 per cent. The investment banking fees have increased as the average IPO size has shrunk this year.
The mutual fund (MF) industry added a record Rs 10 trillion to its total assets under management (AUM) in 2023, taking the cumulative tally past the Rs 50 trillion mark for the first time, in December. This 20 per cent growth in AUM last year was fuelled by a robust rally in the equity markets and a record Rs 1.62 trillion net inflows into active equity schemes. In another first, the AUM linked to systematic investment plans, too, hit Rs 10 trillion by the end of 2023.
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
The spike in volatility, amid election uncertainty, has done little to dent the confidence of retail investors, shows demat account addition and equity mutual fund (MF) investment data. In May, investors opened a net 3.6 million demat accounts, taking the total to 158 million. MF data released on Monday pegged the net inflows into equity schemes and SIP investments at new record highs of Rs 34,697 crore and Rs 20,904 crore, respectively.
Five firms, including ACC Ltd, HDFC Asset Management Company and FSN E-Commerce Ventures that runs Nykaa, will be dropped from Nifty Next 50 index from September 29. NSE Indices Ltd, an arm of the National Stock Exchange, on Thursday said that Indus Towers and Page Industries will also be dropped from the index. Punjab National Bank, Trent, Sriram Finance, TVS Motor Company, and Zydus Lifesciences will be included in the Nifty Next 50 index, NSE Indices said in a statement.
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Sensex pack. The five stocks that defied the trend included UltraTech Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, Tata Motors and Nestle.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped to a lifetime peak of Rs 404.18 lakh crore on Thursday helped by a five-day rally in benchmark indices, making investors richer by Rs 11.29 lakh crore. Recovering after a sell-off in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 486.50 points or 0.66 per cent to settle at 74,339.44 on Thursday. During the day, it surged 718.31 points or 0.97 per cent to 74,571.25.
Among the Sensex constituents, as many as 16 stocks closed with losses with Nestle India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserve, Titan and JSW Steel being the major laggards. Index major Reliance, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti and Tata Steel also declined due to selling pressure. In contrast, NTPC, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance bucked the trend and ended the day in green. Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors also defied the trend.
Long-term investors should never stop their SIPs during market corrections.
Benchmark Sensex rebounded by 167 points in a volatile trade on Friday amid buying in ICICI Bank, State Bank of India and Reliance Industries. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 167.06 points or 0.23 per cent to settle at 71,595.49. During the day, it hit a high of 71,676.49 and a low of 71,200.31.
Since March 2020, when the Nifty50 plummeted to 7,511 following the announcement of a nationwide lockdown, the stock market has been on an upward trajectory. Over the next four years, the major market index has delivered a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 31.5 per cent. In the past year alone, the Nifty50 has gained by 27 per cent, hitting a succession of record highs.
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