Stock markets rebounded on Friday with the benchmark Sensex closing higher by 316 points after heavy buying in banking and metal shares amid optimism over trade deal progresses and India's participation in Pax Silica.
The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
Retail investors' equity portfolios have significantly underperformed benchmark indices over the past 16 to 18 months.
The BSE Sensex plummeted 1,236 points, wiping out nearly Rs 7 lakh crore in investor wealth, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran and subsequent market selloff.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed on a flat note in a choppy session on Wednesday as gains in PSU banks and auto shares were offset by losses in IT stocks.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
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'The problem is not just slower growth, but also the quality of growth.'
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Over 50 per cent, or 660 stocks, from the BSE 1000 index recorded negative returns during CY25.
The number of rights issues more than doubled and hit a 28-year high in 2025, even as qualified institutional placements (QIPs) shrank amid a broader market correction and the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) revised framework for rights issues.
Passive funds have resumed gaining ground in the mutual fund (MF) industry after a slowdown in 2024, with their share of assets under management (AUM) reaching an all-time high in 2025. The surge has been driven largely by robust inflows into gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The BSE Smallcap index hit an over eight-month low of 47,627.96, falling 3 per cent in Tuesday's intraday trade amid selling pressure due to ongoing tariff-related concerns and rising geopolitical tensions.
Trading pattern in the stock market this week will largely depend on the ongoing Q3 earnings announcement from corporates, global trends, and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Moreover, geopolitical developments and any update on trade negotiations would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted.
Flexicap fund performance depends heavily on the fund manager's decisions.
Global risks include a potential delay in the US-India trade agreement, the possibility of a sharp correction in US equity markets, and renewed geopolitical tensions.
'The volatility in the stock markets since September 2024 has hurt the pace of accretion of new investors.'
2025 marked a shift in investor preference when it comes to MF schemes.
'Retail portfolios were going nowhere even as headline indices moved higher, prompting investors to sell holdings and shift money to IPOs, attracted by listing-day gains.'
Retail investors are moving away from a buy-and-hold approach and towards more informed short-term positioning, recent investment patterns show.
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The post-Covid euphoria surrounding direct equity investing has ebbed in 2025. Individual investors have turned net sellers in the domestic equity market, pulling out about 8,461 crore so far this year - a sharp reversal from the record purchases seen in 2024, according to a report by the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
The 2025 contraction marks the steepest decline in both the number of billionaire promoters and their aggregate wealth since 2012.
Largecap equities are less volatile than mid- and smallcap stocks, making them suitable for risk-averse investors.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti and Bharti Airtel were the major gainers. However, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharma, ITC and Asian Paints were among the laggards.
Unless the primary market momentum slows, smallcap stocks will stay subdued.
The controlling shareholders of smaller and mid-sized companies are reducing their stakes at levels seldom seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. Over 20 per cent of companies listed on BSE MidCap and BSE SmallCap have seen a decline in promoter holdings for five consecutive quarters, reveals data from DSP Mutual Fund, shared with Business Standard. In the latest June quarter, the figure stood at 22.6 per cent.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
The milestone crowns a record year for the domestic primary market where IPO mobilisation is set to cross Rs 1.7 trillion.
'The first time India has seen two consecutive blockbuster IPO years.'
Equity markets fell on Monday, with benchmark indices recording their worst session in over two months amid caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy announcement and renewed uncertainty over the US-India trade deal. Sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) also weighed on sentiment.
From the Sensex pack, Eternal, Maruti Suzuki India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Titan, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finance and Larsen & Toubro were among the gainers. On the other hand, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Consultancy Services and Reliance Industries were the only laggards.
Net inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) moderated for the second straight month in September, declining 9 per cent during the month to Rs 30,422 crore. The slowdown came as redemptions from active equity schemes rose 30 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) to a one-year high of around Rs 36,000 crore.
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
Among the Sensex shares, Infosys, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, BEL and Power Grid were among the lead gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, and Titan were the among the laggards.
'Earnings growth will be the main driver of India's market in 2026, with profits expected to rise 9% to 10% in H2 FY26 and accelerate to 12% to 15% in FY27.'
Even as net flows into smallcap funds in March turned negative, for the first time in 30 months, they remained a big draw for new investors. The smallcap fund category saw a net of 360,000 investment accounts, or folios, getting added last month, the second-most among all active equity categories. Smallcap funds' continued traction could be driven by their strong performance across timeframes, say experts.