Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
Soybean is trading at a 25 per cent premium to the MSP, after initially slipping below the government's threshold procurement price of Rs 2,850 a quintal.
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
Retail sales of vehicles across categories in India grew by 11.21 per cent at 32,08,719 units in November, as compared to 28,85,317 units in the same month last year riding on two-wheeler demand, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said in Monday. Retail sales of two-wheelers were at 26,15,953 units last month, as compared to 22,58,970 units in November 2023, a growth of 15.8 per cent buoyed by the festive spillover.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
Foodgrains production in 2020-21 is projected to be a record 144.52 million tonnes, which is 0.80 per cent more than the production in 2019-20.
The government on Wednesday increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat by Rs 150 to Rs 2,425 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season, a move that comes ahead of key state elections. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved price hikes for six rabi crops, with increases ranging from Rs 130 to Rs 300 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season beginning April 2025. "Like for kharif crops, there is a significant increase in the MSP for rabi crops," Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a media briefing after the Cabinet meeting.
Delay in monsoon has affected the sowing operations of various crops during the kharif season, reducing the acreage of these commodities this year.
The government's subsidised onion sale initiative, launched on September 5, has led to price drops in major cities within days, the consumer affairs ministry said on Saturday. In Delhi, retail onion price fell from Rs 60 to Rs 55 per kg, while Mumbai saw a decrease from Rs 61 to Rs 56 per kg. In Chennai, the retail price reduced from Rs 65 to Rs 58 per kg, the ministry said in a statement.
Kharif foodgrains production will touch 103 million tonnes in 2003-04 compared to 90.5 million tonnes produced in the last year, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the fundamental drivers of the Indian economy are gaining momentum and the country is moving on a sustainable growth path. In the inaugural address at FIBAC 2024, the governor said that massive changes are taking shape in various economic sectors and markets, and the country is geared for orbital shifts.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
The government on Friday scrapped a minimum price threshold that it had set previously for exports of onion as it looked to pass on the benefit of international glut to Indian farmers. The government had previously fixed a $550 per tonne as the minimum export price (MEP), which essentially meant farmers could not sell their produce overseas at lower than this rate.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
The Centre on Thursday began the first phase of retail sales of onion at a subsidised rate of Rs 35 per kg to provide relief to Delhi-NCR and Mumbai consumers from rising prices of the kitchen staple. NCCF and NAFED, which are maintaining a buffer stock of 4.7 lakh tonne onion on behalf of the government, will undertake the retail sale through their own stores and mobile vans. Onion will be sold at 38 retail points in Delhi-NCR and Parel and Malad in Mumbai.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
Irrespective of the fact that the monsoon has covered most parts of the country, the next fortnight is going to be crucial for the kharif crop. Concerns over the crop size have still not receded as rain has been deficient till now.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Area under paddy has gone up nearly 3 per cent so far in the ongoing kharif sowing season to 411.52 lakh hectare, while pulses acreage declined 5 per cent, according to the agriculture ministry data. Paddy acreage stood at 400.72 lakh hectare (LH) in the same period last year. As per the data released on Friday, area under pulses declined 5 per cent to 122.57 LH from 128.49 LH in the year-ago period.
Despite volume growth in the export segment and strong demand in the domestic market, pricing uptick is eluding Indian agrochemical companies.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
The average cost of a vegetarian thali became dearer by 10 per cent in June due to the jump in onion, potato, and tomato prices, a report said on Friday. However, a decline in the broiler price contributed to a decrease in the cost of a non-vegetarian meal, as per Crisil Market Intelligence and Analysis' monthly "Roti Rice Rate" report. The cost of veg thali, which comprises roti, vegetables (onions, tomatoes and potatoes), rice, dal, curd and salad, increased 10 per cent to Rs 29.4 per plate in June from Rs 26.7 in the year-ago period, and was higher when compared to Rs 27.8 in May 2024, it said.
Onion prices are likely to start shooting up in the retail market towards the end of August before going up further to around Rs 60-70 per kg next month due to tightened supplies, a report said on Friday. However, the prices will remain below the highs of 2020, it said. "The supply-demand imbalance is expected to reflect in onion prices towards end-August. "As per our ground interactions, prices are expected to show significant increase from early September in the retail market, reaching up to Rs 60-70 per kg during the lean patch.
Addressing a public event in Kolhapur city on Monday evening, Fadnavis pointed out instances wherein women were tricked into inter-faith marriage and subsequently abandoned after they gave birth to children.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 3-month low of 2.04 per cent in July on decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Wednesday showed. The decline in wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in July came after it rose for four months in a row till June, when it was 3.36 per cent. It was (-) 1.23 per cent in July last year. In April wholesale inflation stood at 1.19 per cent.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
Automobile (auto) retail sales in India grew by an impressive 14 per cent in July compared to the same period last year, driven by a surge in the rural economy, good product availability, and product launches. While passenger vehicles (PVs) saw a 10 per cent increase during this period, inventory levels have surged to a historic high of 67-72 days in PVs, equating to Rs 73,000 crore worth of stock, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (Fada). This poses a risk to dealer sustainability. Inventory levels in July 2023 were only 50-55 days, equating to a stock worth Rs 49,833 crore. In June 2024, inventory was between 62 and 67 days, with a stock value of Rs 60,000 crore.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Pulses are most vulnerable to pests and diseases if the monsoon remains patchy for the rest of the season.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
