India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
The combined wealth of India's dollar billionaires is now equivalent to 33.81 per cent of India's nominal GDP.
Everybody talks of China as the real threat, but we aren't even building a decisive capability against Pakistan, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
India's services PMI recovered from its ten-month low in September to reach 58.5 in October supported by strong expansions in output and new business, which in turn boosted job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index increased from 57.7 in September to 58.5 in October, as robust sales pipelines and strong demand conditions supported the upturn in business activity. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'Three manufacturing sectors can create jobs by the million: Apparel, food, and electronic assembly.' 'Let's talk to them and ask them what it would take to scale by a factor of ten,' suggests Naushad Forbes.
Skills like social media, e-mail marketing, SEO (search engine optimisation) and PPC (pay per click) will be essential in 2025, says Sachin Alug, CEO, NLB Services.
Donald Trump's exaggerated opinion of his dealmaking capacity can get him into trouble, observes R Sriram.
The travel and tourism sector's contribution to global gross domestic product will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, according to a new report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Tuesday. This recovery is driven by a considerable increase in worldwide demand, coinciding with more available flights, better international openness, and increased interest and investment in natural and cultural attractions.
The government is proposing to use Artificial Intelligence and other innovative methods to check traffic violations and ensure that penalties are levied accurately, Union minister Nitin Gadkari said on Thursday. Addressing the 12th edition of the Traffic InfraTech Expo, the minister outlined plans for upgrading toll collection methods, including the exploration of satellite toll systems, which would improve efficiency and ensure transparency in toll collection. Gadkari noted that road safety cannot be achieved without integrating advanced engineering solutions, enforcement of laws, and the adoption of cutting-edge technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI).
With hilsa prices soaring, when you do cook it you need the finest recipe.
The outcome of Maharashtra state elections is unlikely to move markets much, said analysts. The markets, they believe, have bigger developments to worry about in the short-to-medium term.
Donald Trump's Presidency of the United States will open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if the incoming president decides to impose restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations, experts said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendly relationship with Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
At nearly 82 per cent of GDP, India's public debt is very high, but the country doesn't face debt sustainability issue on account of high growth rate and higher share of local currency debt, NCAER Director General Poonam Gupta has said. Participating in an event organised by NCAER, Gupta said India's high debt levels are sustainable for now because of higher real or nominal GDP and as most of the debt is held in rupee.
'As we enter 2025, it must be acknowledged that there is a convergence of capital, influential people (from business and politics) and technology deciding the destiny of others in the name of pride, patriotism, nationalism, nation building, all of it thinly veiled disguises for personal profit and glory,' asserts Shyam G Menon.
Personal income tax as a percentage of GDP has gone up from 2.11 per cent in 2014-15 to 2.94 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal, indicating that taxpayer base is widening as a result of the steps taken by the present government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
India is poised to be the third largest global economy by 2030 but rising population presents mounting challenges in basic service coverage and growing investment needs to maintain productivity, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said emerging economies have high ambitions for the next decade and beyond with India aiming to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, from the current $3.6 trillion. India is currently the fifth largest economy.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
United States President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he understands the Russian feeling with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) being on their doorstep.
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, along with her team of bureaucrats, delved into the fine print of the 2024-25 Budget documents in a press conference, detailing the government's road map on bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio and bold tax measures.
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Updated new base years for national accounts and other macro-indicators are expected to come into effect from January-February 2026, coinciding with the first and second advance estimates of national income for FY26, senior official sources aware of the development told Business Standard. "The statistics ministry set up the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) earlier this week. "It will advise on the base year for GDP (gross domestic product) and its alignment with other macro-indicators.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged CEOs of US majors to take advantage of India's growth story as the country is making all efforts to become the third largest economy of the world in his third term. India is currently the fifth largest economy of the world after the US, China, Germany and Japan with a GDP of around $3.9 trillion. India has been the fastest growing large economies of the world with GDP growth rate of over 7 per cent for the last three consecutive years.
Reserve Bank on Thursday retained the growth and inflation projection at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal amid expectations of a normal monsoon. In its last bi-monthly monetary policy review in June, RBI had projected real GDP growth and retail inflation at the same.
The central government's fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6 per cent of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8 per cent on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- or gap between expenditure and revenue -- was Rs 16.53 lakh crore, or 5.63 per cent of the GDP, which grew 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
'Maharashtra is virtually in a debt trap.'
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
Whether she will pare the fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP, using the record dividend received from the RBI, or expand flagship government programmes will be keenly watched.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
India's services sector activity fell to a 10-month low in September as new businesses, international sales and output growth moderated, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index fell from 60.9 in August to 57.7 in September, indicating that though the output registered an increase, the pace of growth was the slowest since November 2023. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
The 16th Brics Summit beginning Tuesday in Kazan, Russia, is expected to see more focus on creating a sharper energy policy for Brics that ensures closer partnership among members in both energy security and energy transition, official sources said. The same is expected to be a part of the Kazan declaration, currently being negotiated, they added.
'Generating employment requires a shift in policy.' 'If not, the country will face economic, social and political challenges in the coming years.'
The ties between India and the Maldives came under severe strain since Muizzu, known for his pro-China leanings, took charge of the top office in November.
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