Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
President Xi Jinping has said that no one can ever stop Taiwan's reunification with China as he signed off 2024 amid growing anxieties in the country over the continued slowdown of the economy and the return of Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose punitive tariffs and trade measures against Beijing in his second term.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
Credit-focused SIFs with lower minimum investment thresholds can provide a more practical option for investors with higher risk appetite, suggests Subodh Rai.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
Personal income tax as a percentage of GDP has gone up from 2.11 per cent in 2014-15 to 2.94 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal, indicating that taxpayer base is widening as a result of the steps taken by the present government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman provides the much-expected tax relief for the middle class, leaving more money in their hands, as there is tax buoyancy
Gold imports more than doubled in August to a record high of $10.06 billion, mainly on account of a drastic cut in customs duty and ongoing festive demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Gold imports stood at $4.93 billion in August 2023. On record high imports, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that the tariff rates on gold have been reduced drastically so that smuggling and other activities can come down.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
'Women' as a political constituency appears to be an idea that has come of age. It is changing India in ways that we only dimly understand, asserts Aditi Phadnis.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
The water crisis could jeopardise more than half of the world's food production and cause an average global GDP loss of 8 per cent by 2050, with lower-income countries facing up to a 15 per cent loss, according to a new report.
Novice investors must understand that volatility is an inherent part of equity markets and learn to navigate through such phases.
As the Union Budget 2025-2026 (FY26) inches closer, the Indian real estate industry is seeking stamp duty cuts, revised home loan limits and updated affordable housing norms through Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY), single-window clearance and eco-friendly policies, among others. Industry leaders and consultancy firms, including Anarock, Raheja, Gaurs, Kanodia Group, Reach, Urban Space, Justo and Eros Group, have shared their expectations.
The Kerala unit of the Congress instantly gets a headache when Shashi Tharoor lets loose one of his observations showering flowers on enemy territory. With every such action triggering controversy within a nervous Congress party, some feel it is high time Tharoor showed a degree of solidarity with the ideals of his party, notes Shyam G Menon.
'This debate is going on all over the world and everybody is saying that only GDP cannot estimate the real (economic) situation of a country.'
We no longer have the ambition to rival China save through words. We are happy to be fighting ourselves and digging up disputes from centuries ago as a substitute for real development, argues Aakar Patel.
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The share of total health expenditure as part of the gross domestic product (GDP) went down to 3.3 per cent in 2017-18 from 3.8 per cent in the previous two years, according to the national health account data released on Monday by the health ministry. The share of government expenditure as part of total expenditure as well as GDP has gone up from from 3.78 per cent to 5.12 per cent between 2013-14 and 2017-18, which could also explain a decline seen in out of pocket expenditure in 2017-18. Health ministry also emphasised the increase in the government health expenditure as part of the total GDP from 1.15 per cent in 2013-14 to 1.35 per cent in 2017-18.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
With the rapid evolution of channels like quick-commerce and the emergence of ONDC, the Indian retail industry is 'cautiously optimistic' for 2025, in which new-age technologies such as AI and automation will play a crucial role, driving efficiency and personalisation.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
'If the Trump administration decides to put guardrails on H-1B visas, that will surely impact both US and Indian firms.'
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
The travel and tourism sector's contribution to global gross domestic product will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, according to a new report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Tuesday. This recovery is driven by a considerable increase in worldwide demand, coinciding with more available flights, better international openness, and increased interest and investment in natural and cultural attractions.
The government's initiative to migrate SEZ data from NSDL software to ICEGATE system for streamlined reporting of import data caused double counting of gold imports, resulting in inflated figures and the issue has now been largely rectified, government sources said. The downward revision has provided the actual picture of trade deficit (difference between imports and exports), which was earlier looking very high. The deficit for November will now be revised downwards from $37.84 billion to about $32.8 billion. Similarly, there will be a revision in overall import numbers as well.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by $5 billion to $9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments. According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about $11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
The first wave of COVID-19 last year impacted households as their financial savings moderated to 8.2 per cent of GDP in December quarter from 10.4 per cent in the previous three-month period, revealed an RBI data released on Wednesday. The preliminary estimate of household financial savings is placed at 8.2 per cent of GDP in October-December 2020-21, exhibiting a sequential moderation for the second consecutive quarter after having spiked in the pandemic-hit June quarter, RBI said in a release. "The moderation was driven by a significant weakening in the flow of household financial assets, which more than offset the moderation in the flow of household financial liabilities," it said.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
'Three manufacturing sectors can create jobs by the million: Apparel, food, and electronic assembly.' 'Let's talk to them and ask them what it would take to scale by a factor of ten,' suggests Naushad Forbes.
