Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
Bharti Airtel delivered encouraging results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) as telecom and associated services moved into the 5G zone. In India, Airtel's mobile Q4 revenue and Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) were Rs 19,550 crore (up 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter or QoQ) and Rs 10,530 crore (up 1.1 per cent QoQ), respectively. The Ebitda margin was flat at 52.2 per cent.
Global rating agency Fitch said on Monday that bank credit growth in excess of 13 per cent year on year in FY23 could put pressure on core equity tier ratios (CET1) of banks, especially public sector lenders. It may limit the buffers of Indian banks to absorb potential future losses. Bank credit expanded by 11.5 per cent in FY22. Full-year loan growth for FY23 will represent a modest slowdown from the 17 per cent YoY pace in H1FY23.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
Although Info Edge delivered good results in the October-December quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q3FY23), the management guidance flagged visible weakness in the IT segment. That seems to have spooked investors who downgraded valuations for a very highly-valued company. The stock dropped by over 9 per cent as the market responded to the guidance and its implications more than the results.
Benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty closed lower by nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday amid fresh foreign fund outflows and mixed global trends. The 30-share BSE benchmark fell by 497.73 points or 0.89 per cent to settle at 55,268.49, extending its losses for second straight day. During the day, it tanked 562.79 points or 1 per cent to 55,203.43. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 147.15 points or 0.88 per cent to 16,483.85.
IT services firms' revenue growth in the fourth quarter will be affected by macro-driven headwinds, lower working-days, and the fact of the three-month period being low season. Analysts are expecting FY24 growth to be muted. Revenue growth will decline 600-700 basis points to 10-12 per cent for FY24, said a CRISIL Ratings report. The 10-12 per cent growth rate is a fall from the 18-20 per cent expected in FY23 and around 19 per cent growth in FY22, the highest in eight years, said the CRISIL Ratings report.
Should deposit growth continue to outpace credit growth, banks may end up ceding some hard-earned 25-50 bps improvement in profitability or net interest margin gained in the past two years.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
Asset-weighted returns of large cap funds lagged their benchmark by 273 basis points, ELSS funds by 318 bps and mid- and small-cap funds by 230 bps.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
The country's largest lender State Bank of India on Monday said it has reduced interest rates on home loans by up to 10 basis points (bps) and is offering loans starting from 6.70 per cent rate. The new rates are based on loan amount and CIBIL score of the borrower, and are available till March 31, 2021, according to a statement. The bank said the home loan interest rates will start from 6.70 per cent for loans up to Rs 75 lakh and 6.75 per cent for loans in the range of Rs 75 lakh-Rs 5 crore.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Mounting repayment pressure for some borrowers, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, amid India's interest rate hikes will test banks' loan underwriting quality, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday. However, asset-quality risks from higher rates should generally be moderate for most banks, it said in a statement. Higher rates will also affect securities valuations and could make it harder for banks to raise fresh capital, particularly at state banks, although wider net interest margins (NIM) will have offsetting positive credit effects, it added.
Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
Analysts at foreign brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the RBI will cut rates by 0.25 per cent in December, and follow it up with a 0.15 per cent in February.
After new-age tech companies reported better-than-expected June quarter (Q1FY23) results, analysts said it will be a long road to recovery for their respective businesses and the stock prices. Moreover, brokerages differ on whether it is the right time to own these stocks. The common thread, however, that runs across most brokerages is Zomato, where they suggest buying the stock with the one-year target price ranging between Rs 60 - 115, translating into an upside of around 9 - 109 per cent from the current levels. The company's gross order value (GOV) of food delivery jumped 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 42 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, aided largely by growth in volume, and mild growth in average order value (AOV) at 1-2 per cent. The company also broke even on an adjusted Ebitda basis during the quarter.
Housing finance major HDFC on Monday reported a 16 per cent growth in standalone net profit to Rs 3,700 crore for the January-March quarter, helped by record loan sales on the back of benign interest rates and the resultant fall in cost of funds along with the near-total repayments that culled provisions and credit costs. For the full year, the company, which is working on a reverse merger with its banking subsidiary, has booked a net profit of Rs 13,742 crore, up from Rs 12,027 crore in FY21, vice-chairman and chief executive Keki Mistry said on Monday in an earnings call with analysts. On a consolidated basis, net profit for the quarter surged 21.6 per cent to Rs 6,892 crore on-year and for the full year it jumped 21 per cent to Rs 22,595 crore, Mistry said and guided towards better days.
Country's biggest mortgage lender HDFC on Tuesday announced a festive offer in line with peers like SBI with home loans starting from 6.70 per cent. Last week, SBI as part of festival bonanza offered a concessional home loan rate of 6.70 per cent under its festive offer. This was followed by other lenders like Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda.
The share of listed public sector undertakings (PSUs) in the overall market capitalisation has hit a three-year high of 11.4 per cent. This comes on the back of the sharp outperformance of the PSU pack over the past two years. In 2021 and 2022, the BSE PSU index gained 41 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. Market participants said a combination of factors like value buying and bullishness, particularly in public sector banks (PSBs), were the reason for the improved prospects.
Equity benchmarks ended modestly higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate in an effort to cool stubbornly high inflation and defend the rupee. Continuous foreign fund inflows into the capital markets and softening crude oil prices also helped the bourses regain momentum, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 89.13 points or 0.15 per cent higher at 58,387.93 after facing volatility during the fag-end of trade. During the day, it climbed 350.39 points or 0.60 per cent to 58,649.19. The broader NSE Nifty went up by 15.50 points or 0.09 per cent to finish at 17,397.50.
Despite a healthy March-May quarter (Q3FY22) show by global IT consulting firm Accenture, Indian IT companies shed up to 3 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday as analysts continued to highlight medium-term pain points for the sector. The Nifty IT index settled 0.9 per cent lower on Friday, as against a 0.9 per cent rise in the Nifty50 index. According to analysts at ICICI Securities, Accenture's Q3 saw moderation in year-on-year growth rate across verticals and US regions, which signals at likely normalisation in revenue momentum for Indian IT services going forward.
Bank credit is likely to grow at a four-year high of 11-12 per cent in fiscal 2023, on the back of better economic growth and budgetary support from the government, according to a report. In the fiscal ended March 2022, bank advances have likely grown at 9-10 per cent. "Healthy economic growth and budgetary support from the government should lift bank credit growth by 200-300 basis points to 11-12 per cent this fiscal," Crisil Ratings said in the report. The higher credit growth expectation is also supported by the improved resilience of the banking system, it added.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
Telecom infrastructure player Indus Towers has been largely ignored by investors with occasional bursts of trading when there's news flow. For example, the stock fell from Rs 188 (Jan 1, 2023) to Rs 135 (Jan 27) and then bounced back to Rs 165 in early February as the Government of India (GoI) converted Vodafone Idea's (Vi) debt into equity and Bharti Airtel pushed up its direct stake in Indus to 47.95 per cent. The cash-strapped Vi holds 21 per cent stake in Indus Towers and Indus also has substantial receivables to come in from Vi which is a negative overhang.
'Winning a deal is one aspect, making sure that we are able to execute it profitably is also important' says Rajesh Nambiar.
'India has the potential to do a lot more to take advantage of the time today where we stand to gain, geopolitically and in terms of market attractiveness.'
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
Adani Enterprises, which is launching India Inc's second-largest follow-on public offer worth Rs 20,000 crore next week, on Thursday said it is planning to enter the water segment as this is a key element of its core business of infrastructure. The group is into the entire gamut of infrastructure -- being its ports, airports, roads, expressways power generation & distribution, among others. In ports and airports, the group is the largest player in the private sector. Addressing media from Milan, group chief financial officer Jugeshinder Singh said the company has fixed the price band for the Rs 20,000-crore issue in the range of Rs 3,112-3,276 per share.
It further pointed out that the twin balance sheet problem -- at the end of banks and corporate -- more attractive interest rates for borrowers in the bond market and from non-banking financial institutions are other reasons for slow bank credit growth.
With Viswanathan Anand resting, the Indian team managed to hold their own against the favourites before Yu Yangyi subdued B Adhiban with black pieces to secure another victory in the tournament.
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