Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
Banks are gaining market share at the expense of non-bank lenders such as housing finance companies, retail lenders, and those giving gold loans. There has been a steady decline in the market share of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in the credit market as banks have stepped up lending. NBFCs' share declined to a five-year low of 19.8 per cent in the first half of FY23, down from 20.3 per cent in H1FY22, and an all-time high of 23.1 per cent in H1FY19.
Many retail investors, who are experiencing their first bear market, are shocked at the erosion in the value of their mutual fund (MF) portfolios. The pain is especially acute for those who had taken excessive exposure to sector/thematic and small-cap funds. Even international diversification has failed to stanch the bleed in this downturn.
Life insurance companies reported a 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) drop in new business premium (NBP) in February as state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India's premiums contracted 32 per cent during this period on account of a drop in its group single premium segment. According to data released by the Life Insurance Council, the industry earned an NBP of Rs 22,847.65 crore in February - a drop of 17 per cent from the same period a year ago.
The Adani Group has overtaken Mukesh Ambani Group to become the country's second biggest business group in terms of market cap behind Tatas. Adani Group cos now have a combined m-cap of Rs 19.44 trillion against Ambani Group cos combined m-cap of Rs 17.89 trillion. Tata Group leads the league table with the group market capitalisation of Rs 21.73 trillion on Monday. The Adani Group companies, however, continue to out-perform firms from business groups and the broader market on the bourses by a big margin.
The sharp rally in the markets thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) has left analysts struggling to find investment-worthy themes. The S&P BSE Sensex has surged nearly 7 per cent thus far in FY24 and hit a fresh 52-week high of 63,601.71 levels on June 22, mostly led by foreign institutional (FII) flows. "The Indian market has seen a broad rally in the past few months but headline indices have seen more modest performance. "We are not very clear about the reasons for the rally and the divergent performance and struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months," wrote Sanjeev Prasad, co-head, Kotak Institutional Equities, in a recent co-authored note with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa.
Notwithstanding the risk involved, analysts are upbeat on micro-cap investing as India remains in a firm bull market. Moreover, these stocks are available at relatively cheaper valuations compared to large, mid and small caps, assuring alpha returns. With a market-capitalisation (market-cap) of up to Rs 10,000 crore, micro-cap stocks are outside the purview of Nifty 500 stocks, and are ranked from 501 to 750 in the market-cap ladder.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Bolstered by bullish investor sentiments, India witnessed companies mopping up a whopping $9.7 billion through initial share sales in the first nine months of 2021, the highest amount for the nine-month period in two decades, says a report. As many as 72 initial public offerings (IPOs) hit the stock market during the January-September period this year in India and strong sentiments were visible in the global markets as well, according to leading consultancy EY. EY, in its latest report, said the global IPO market continued to boom through Q3 2021 resulting in the most active third quarter by deal numbers and proceeds in the last 20 years.
In January, Visa's chief executive officer, Al Kelly, said during an earnings call that "there's been a burst of the balloon in valuations in the fintech world". Noting that the trend of lower valuations "is a helpful characteristic of the current environment", he added: "We will look for capabilities and management teams that will bring more value to Visa than we can bring ourselves." Data from KPMG's Pulse of Fintech H2'22 shows that global fintech investment - via mergers and acquisitions (M&As), private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms - at $164.1 billion in 2022, was down 31 per cent over the year before. Indian fintechs held up better during this timeframe, attracting $6 billion, or a fall of 24 per cent.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
Market experts say that FIIs have been caught off-guard on their exposures to companies with high-leverage and those facing cyclical headwinds.
Equity benchmarks shrugged off lacklustre global cues to clock smart gains on Tuesday, buoyed by strong buying interest in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC twins. However, a depreciating rupee and unabated foreign fund outflows capped the gains, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 562.75 points or 0.94 per cent to settle at 60,655.72.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
The V-shaped rebound has been aided by a gush of liquidity flooding the global financial system, thanks to balance sheet expansion.
While rising interest rates and tighter liquidity are giving negative signals for the financial sector, increasing economic activity could mean higher business volumes for lenders. Liquidity in the banking system has moved from Rs 8 trillion surplus into a deficit of Rs 33,000 crore over the 2022 calendar year. By the end of November, bank credit had grown 17.5 per cent YoY (year-on-year).
The relentless rally in small- and mid-cap stocks continues as large-caps show signs of fatigue. In July, the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 8.1 per cent, extending its year-to-date (YTD) gains to 48.5 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 added 3.1 per cent, taking its YTD rise to 33.5 per cent. On the other hand, the Nifty50 remained unchanged for the month, with YTD gains of 12.7 per cent.
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India may remain tepid in 2022, said a recent note by Goldman Sachs, who now peg the foreign portfolio investment into India at $5 billion in 2022, down from their earlier forecast of $30 billion with risks skewed to the downside. "There has been $15 billion of equity outflows YTD in India already, and the IPO of the largest insurance company has been pushed out. "Additionally, with no mention of India's inclusion in global bond indices in the Union Budget, there are risks to our already conservative base case assumption of an announcement of India's likely inclusion into the GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index in Q4-2022," wrote Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist in a co-authored report with Santanu Sengupta and Suraj Kumar.
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
JP Morgan has downgraded the Indian information technology sector to 'underweight' as it believes the heydays of the sector are over. Rising margin headwinds in the near-term and the revenue headwinds in the medium-term from a potential macro slowdown, Ankur Rudra and Bhavik Mehta of JP Morgan said in the report, will mean that the sector's earnings upgrade cycle is behind. "We see peak revenue growth behind us and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins trending down from inflation, mean revision.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Will 2022 be a year of contrasting narratives -- one filled with caution and the other with continued optimism?
Inflation trajectory, domestically as also globally, is what will shape the economy, and therefore the market, over the next couple of quarters.'
'Unless India Inc's earnings offer promise in March 2017 quarter, sentiment may not reverse in a hurry.'
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
The Adani group has the maximum number of companies in the trillion club at five, followed by the Tata group (four).
'The probability of this being a suckers' rally, where all kinds of beaten down stocks have begun to rally sharply, should be a time to be cautious and circumspect.'
Hostile takeover bids worldwide have slumped 66 per cent to $124.4 billion so far in 2009, with US-based Kraft Foods' $19.8 billion offer for British major Cadbury being the second largest.
Natco Pharma, Wockhardt and Marksans have rallied between 50 and 70 per cent in the year till date.
There will be tough periods in equity investing, but investors should not stop their SIP investments under any circumstance, advises Arnav Pandya.
The downturn in global economy has hit the merger and acquisition transactions as their value so far this year has dropped 35 per cent at $384 billion.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
India witnessed 22 initial public offers worth over $2.5 billion in the first three months of 2021 amid "high momentum" in the country's capital markets and the trend is likely to stay bullish in the current quarter also, according to a report. Leading consultancy EY India's IPO (Initial Public Offer) report released on Wednesday showed that consumer products and retail, diversified industrial products, automotive and transportation were the most active sectors in terms of the number of IPOs in the 2021 first quarter. The IPOs include both in the main as well as SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) markets.
Given that there has been no negative news flow around Zomato, analysts believe it's time to lap up the shares at lower levels.
sharper-than-expected economic recovery back home, analysts say, can fuel a further rally in domestic cyclicals, industrials, and financials as global central banks continue with their easy money policy.
The stock, which is a play on the growth story of Indian Railways, has corrected 15 per cent from its 52-week high level of Rs 2,072.95 scaled on March 9. Yet, this has not deterred brokerages from holding a bullish view on the stock.
While selling started in April, it has intensified this month, with FPIs pulling out $1.1 billion and $2.5 billion from equities and debt market, respectively
In Indian context, among top gainers on the spot National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, is coriander that saw its price moving up nearly 38 per cent (year-to-date, or YTD).
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