The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic inflation data and global trends would be key driving factors in dictating movement in the market this week, as the Lok Sabha elections outcome and the RBI policy decision are behind us, analysts said. The past week was a roller-coaster ride for investors as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains.
Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index, hit a 15-month high of 4.88 per cent in November
Markets surged after Dec WPI which eased to 5-month low raised hopes of a neutral stance by the RBI at its policy meet end-January.
RBI targets to keep inflation at 4 per cent, (+/- 2 per cent), and its rise beyond this comfort zone will put pressure on the central bank to hike rates.
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose in December at 0.73 per cent mainly due to a sharp rise in food prices. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent.
The services sector contributes the highest of around 54 per cent to the country's gross domestic product. At present, the WPI, which is released every week, contains prices of primary articles, fuel and manufactured products. Data from banking and transport services would be the first sectors to be covered on an experimental basis. The plan is to initially build a separate services index, which would be integrated into the WPI later.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
IT shares hold on to gains while power, metals lag.
BSE Capital Goods and FMCG indices surged between 1-2%
Prices of food articles contracted by 3.47 per cent in June on a yearly basis. Vegetable inflation stood at (-)21.16 per cent.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
Inflation in food articles was at 0.87 per cent in April 2018, as against a deflation of 0.29 per cent in the preceding month.
Pulses inflation remained stubborn at 35.56 per cent.
In fuel and power segment, inflation saw a sharp surge to a near double digit inflation at 9.99 per cent, against 4.37 per cent in July.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh straight month in October at (-) 0.52 per cent, on easing prices of food items. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative zone since April and was at (-) 0.26 per cent in September, 2023. In October last year, WPI was at 8.67 per cent.
India's wholesale price index, the inflation measure most widely followed by policy-makers and investors, does not need another revision after the release of the final number eight weeks after the provisional numbers, as more than three-fourths data are collected by then, Pronab Sen, chief statistician, Ministry of Statistics has said.
In August, wholesale prices rose 3.74 per cent year-on-year.
The reading for June WPI inflation was revised to 5.66 percent from 5.43 percent earlier.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
In an earlier analysis for the period till April 26, it had been found that of the 365 items in the WPI, the index for as many as 166 items had not been revised for more than four months. The latest analysis as of June 21 shows that the index for around 55 of these 166 items has been revised. In effect, only one-third of the items have seen an index revision. During this period, headline inflation has moved from 8.27 per cent to 11.63 per cent.
Wholesale inflation rate eased to 34-month low of (-) 0.92 per cent in April on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been on a declining trend for 11 months in a row and entered the negative zone in April. In June 2020 WPI was at (-) 1.81 per cent.
Weights of the fuel group are set to rise in the revised Wholesale Price Index.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
According to D&B, food price levels might witness a rebound as foodgrain production is estimated to have declined during 2014-15.
Overall inflation rose marginally to 8.31 per cent in February, 2011, from 8.23 per cent in the previous month.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
There was acceleration in prices of fuel and power (11.69 per cent) and manufactured products (2.55 per cent).
Although the WPI-based inflation has been in the negative for two consecutive weeks, the Consumer Price Index, which measures movement in the prices that consumers pay, reported double-digit increase in May.
Deflation masked the rise in food inflation to a 5-month high.
The industry department had planned to get 10,000 price quotations from producers in order to have a new-look WPI, which incorporates a better snapshot of the economy. Out of this, 8,000 products are manufactured items. However, it now emerges that the DIPP may get price quotations from only 6,400 industrial units and factories.
The widely-tracked wholesale price index (WPI), the cause of severe political pangs for the government every Friday, will be released on a monthly basis by the end of this year instead of weekly. In effect, instead of witnessing the release of inflation data for 52 consecutive weeks, the data will be made available only a dozen times a year.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to over two-year low of 3.85 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power, even though food articles remained expensive. This is the ninth straight month of decline in the rate of wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation. The WPI inflation was 4.73 per cent in January and 13.43 per cent in February, last year.
"The WPI is not a true reflection of the burden put on the people through the rise in prices of essential commodities. It is a misnomer to use it as an index for measuring inflation," party leader Sitaram Yechury told reporters. Quoting the oft-repeated phrase 'statistics, more statistics and damned lies', he said the weightage of the basket of food items to calculate the WPI was 22 per cent as against that of steel products which was 25 per cent.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to an eight-month high of 0.26 per cent in November, driven by a sharp jump in food prices, especially onion and vegetables. The WPI inflation was in the negative or deflationary zone for the past seven months since April and was at (-)0.52 per cent in October. The last positive WPI inflation was recorded in March at 1.41 per cent.
A day before the announcement of the inflation data for August, the Planning Commission said that the figures would remain high but would start declining in subsequent months to reach a level of 6 per cent by December-end.
From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Asian Paints were the major gainers. Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Tata Steel were among the major laggards.
