'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
Foreign investors were net sellers of domestic debt in October for the first time since the official inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan bond indices, with net outflow worth Rs 4,697 crore. This marked the second instance in the current calendar year where foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers in a month.
Aiming to further expand the bilateral economic engagement, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner would travel to New Delhi and Mumbai later this month for the third annual meet of the US-India Economic and Financial Partnership.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
Foreign investors have pulled out a massive Rs 22,000 crore from Indian equities so far this month, due to uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections and outperformance of Chinese markets.
The Tata Group is one of the very few Indian MNCs which has carved out a niche in China's highly competitive market, notes Rup Narayan Das.
After Bandhan MF's US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Fund (FoF), Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF has come out with US Treasury 1-3 Year Bond ETFs FoF and 3-10 Year Bond ETFs FoF. US bonds, which generally offer low yields, have turned attractive post the 525-basis point hike in US interest rates. According to Bloomberg data, the 1-year and 2-year US treasury yields now stand at 5.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Although the yields remain lower than what Indian government bonds offer, the differential has come down steeply.
Overseas fundraising by Indian firms is experiencing a robust revival in 2024, following a lacklustre 2023. This resurgence is primarily driven by strong demand for high-yield bonds from international investors amid improving liquidity conditions and reduced hedging costs. Indian companies raised ~32,619 crore through overseas bonds in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total amount raised via such instruments in the entire 2023, which stood at ~31,218 crore, according to PRIME Database. In comparison, ~45,237 crore was raised in 2022 and ~1.05 trillion was secured in 2021.
The value of FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) holding in Indian equities reached $738 billion in the three months ended December 2023, marking a surge of 13 per cent from the preceding quarter, driven by the strong performance of the domestic stock market, according to a report by Morningstar. The value of FPIs investment was at $651 billion in the September quarter of the current fiscal. On a year-on-year basis, the value of such investments rose 26 per cent from $584 billion in December 2022.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investment in the domestic debt market in October was the third highest during the current calendar year as foreign investors rushed to lock in higher returns amid global uncertainty and geo-political tensions, market participants said. FPI inflows in debt stood at Rs 6, 322 crore in October against Rs 768 crore in September, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). Market participants said that the majority of the inflows were channelled through corporate bonds.
World Bank president Ajay Banga is among the Indians who have made it to the prestigious Times's list of 100 most influential people in the world released on Wednesday. Time's profile of the former Mastercard CEO, written by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, said, "It's not easy to find a leader with the skill and drive to take on the monumental task of transforming an essential institution, but since becoming World Bank president last June, Ajay Banga has done just that." She said Banga comes to the World Bank after leading a global organisation through which he brought millions of unbanked people into the digital economy.
From the Sensex basket, Sun Pharma, Maruti, Power Grid, Titan, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services and Nestle were the gainers.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday, April 11, 2023, met with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington, DC.
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
Urals and Sokol accounted for every 4 out of 5 barrels of Russian supplies to India last year.
The World Bank's executive board unanimously selected 63-year-old Malpass, who is currently Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs, as the bank's 13th President for a five-year term beginning April 9.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
India's foreign exchange reserves increased to $604 billion as on December 1, surpassing the $600 billion mark after a gap of about four months. The forex reserves were last above the $600 billion mark on August 11 this year. "India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $604 billion as on December 1, 2023.
Exchange-traded currency derivatives volumes are likely to drop in view of new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rules, casting a cloud over further participation of retail investors and proprietary traders. There are concerns that existing positions without any underlying exposure will need to be liquidated. Also, weighed down by dollar demand from local oil companies and weakness in its Asian peers, the rupee on Wednesday (April 3) ended at a new closing low of 83.44 versus the US currency.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors, Maruti, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, NTPC, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards.
A key reason for the rise in crypto currencies in 2023 is the possibility of the world's first Bitcoin ETF over the next few months.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
US nominee for World Bank president, Ajay Banga, has tested positive for COVID-19 following which the meetings scheduled during his two-day visit to India have been cancelled. According to a Finance Ministry statement, Banga's meeting with Nirmala Sitharaman would not happen as he is in quarantine. "During routine testing, Ajay Banga tested positive for COVID-19 but remains asymptomatic.
India and the US on Monday committed to further improving bilateral ties, exploring alternate mechanisms for funding renewable energy and actively pursuing the G20 agenda which includes strengthening MDBs and taking coordinated action to deal with climate change. Several issues, including climate action, rising indebtedness in low and middle income countries and digital public infrastructure, figured during a bilateral meeting between Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. India, Sitharaman said, will "look forward to furthering ... bilateral interests through development cooperation and new investment opportunities through Alternate Investment platforms for renewable energy."
Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
The US Department of Treasury plans to sell its 27 per cent stake in Citigroup Inc, says a media report. The stake selling is part of a programme of regularly scheduled sales.
The US treasury department informed about the sanctions following the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
'Higher inflows into these securities should lead to lower borrowing costs for the government.'
'The global situation is not very good.'
India has also taken note of reports of Saeed's son Talha contesting elections in Pakistan and said the "mainstreaming" of radical terror outfits in the neighbouring country is nothing new and that it has been part of its State policy for a long time.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
During the financial crisis, the Treasury had invested a total of $45 billion in it and made a $5 billion commitment under the Asset Guarantee Program that was never funded.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
One of the key factors contributing to the decline in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is the tightening yield spread between the 10-year India government bond and the US government bond. The yield on 10-year Indian government bonds is now only 295 basis points higher than that of US 10-year treasury bonds, the lowest since January 2007. Lower spread means lower incentive for foreign investors to invest in rupee assets, which adversely affects foreign capital inflows into the country and weighs on the rupee-dollar exchange rate.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
He was previously Chief-of-Staff and Budget specialist.
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