Over the last few months, the Indian economy has been on nothing short of a roller-coaster ride.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
Rumours in the bureaucracy on his successor include the names of Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan, Rathin Roy of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse and the principal economic advisor, Sanjeev Sanyal.
'That is the one headline the world is reading about India this week, and it is a potentially damaging story...' 'I don't think a panic mentality has set in, but this story is one that investors and market watchers are absolutely seized with.'
For growth sustain at these levels, private services need to recover.
13 eminent economists, including former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and current International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, in a report have asked the political establishment not to resort to populist tricks.
Deficits could come under more pressure in coming years as states implement their own Pay Commissions.
The sharp fall in rupee since the beginning of May will make things difficult for the central bank which is on the path of easing the monetary policy to revive growth.
There was hope in some quarters that the interim Budget would boost sentiment and lay the groundwork for kick-starting the investment cycle, while staying on a path of fiscal consolidation.
'RBI and the economy will gain tremendously from Urjit Patel's experience in both private and public sectors'
In his book Restart, Mihir Sharma minces no words in pointing out that faulty policies, the lackadaisical attitude of bureaucrats and a few wrong decisions of past governments have hampered India's growth.
The larger virtue of maintaining fiscal credibility should not be unduly diluted by quibbles on the fiscal math, says Sajjid Chinoy.
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